CARL PAVANO COMMUNITY PROJECTION
Community Projection: 30 GS, 14-9 W-L, 4.34 ERA, 189 IP, 121/51 K/BB
Baseball Forecaster: 32 GS, 15-11 W-L, 3.52 ERA, 218 IP, 140/52 K/BB
Baseball Prospectus: 28 GS, ---------, 4.64 ERA, 175 IP, 109/42 K/BB
ZIPS BTT Projection: 30 GS, 13-11 W-L, 4.36 ERA, 198 IP, 116/48 K/BB
The Community Projection for Carl Pavano isn't out of line at all with what PECOTA and ZIPS show. The Forecaster projection is much more optimistic, however Shandler ran his numbers before Pavano came to the Yankees, so that projection does not account for the difference in park/league compared to last year. Applying a suitable league adjustment to the Forecaster projection would bring it closer to what the other systems show.
The general consensus is that Pavano will be an effective pitcher for the Yankees, but will miss a couple of weeks worth of starts due to injury/fatigue, and probably not be worth what the Yanks are paying for him overall. He'll need run support and a strong defense behind him to thrive, typical of course for a number three/four starter.