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Jason Bay Community Projection Results

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Jason Bay

Minor League Ball Community Proj: BA: .277 OBP: .356 SLG: .521 10 SB
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projt: BA: .274 OBP: .370 SLG: .507 10 SB
Baseball Forecaster 05Projection: BA: .272 OBP: .349 SLG: .500 6 SB
Bill James Handbook 05Projection: BA: .289 OBP: .370 SLG: .553 12 SB
ZIPS Baseball Think Tank Project: BA: .286 OBP: .375 SLG: .524 11 SB
John Sickels Experimental Projec: BA: .276 OBP: .367 SLG: .506 10 SB

By OPS

Bill James: .923
ZIPS/Tank: .899
Prospectus: .877
Community: .877
SickelsExp: .873
Forecaster: .849

In this case the Community is dead-center of expectation, with an identical OPS to PECOTA, and just four points higher than my own projection. As is frequently the case, James is the most optimistic. Shandler is the most pessimistic in this example.

I have some thoughts I'm going to be laying out about how to look at all these different systems. I'll have that up later this week.