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Jose Reyes Community Projection Results

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Jose Reyes

Minor League Ball Community Proj: BA: .277 OBP: .327 SLG: .415 37 SB
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projt: BA: .262 OBP: .304 SLG: .374 35 SB
Baseball Forecaster 05Projection: BA: .262 OBP: .294 SLG: .374 38 SB
Bill James 05Handbook Projection: BA: .272 OBP: .305 SLG: .390 52 SB
ZIPS Baseball Think Tank Project: BA: .288 OBP: .327 SLG: .396 47 SB
John Sickels Experimental Projec: BA: .268 OBP: .309 SLG: .380 43 SB

By OPS

Community: .742
ZIPS/Tank: .723
Bill James: .695
SickelsExp: .689
Prospectus: .678
Forecaster: .668

OK, now we have something interesting.

The Community Projection is more optimistic than what other systems are showing, particularly in the slugging percentage department, although curiously it is less optimistic about his steal totals. Note that I have adjusted the steal totals per rate at the projected 500 at-bats.

My projection, PECOTA/Prospectus, Shandler's Forecaster, and James are all fairly close to each other. ZIPS is a bit more optimistic.

So, is the Community picking up something that the other systems are missing? Or did we just have a lot of Mets fans post yesterday?