Question for the House: what will be the shape of Josh Beckett's career? How long will he last, and how many games will he win? Is there a Cy Young in his future?
As a starting point for discussion, I made a list, using the Baseball-Reference.com website, of Beckett's Similarity Scores through age 24.
Comparable Pitchers to Josh Beckett through age 24
Pitcher Sim Score Career W-L Career IP
Chuck Dobson 981 74-69 1258 ip
Jim McGlothlin 980 67-77 1300 ip
Pedro Astacio 980 118-109 1980 ip
Steve Rogers 977 158-152 2838 ip
Floyd Youmans 977 30-34 539 ip
Kevin Gross 977 142-158 2488 ip
Craig McMurtry 975 28-42 668 ip
Mario Soto 974 100-92 1730 ip
John Denny 973 123-108 2149 ip
Darryl Kile 972 133-119 2165 ip
Average 97-96 1712 ip
As you can see, there are a wide range of possible outcomes for Beckett. It is rather frightening that the "most similar" pitcher is an early burnout like Chuck Dobson. A comparison to Beckett's 2005 Baseball Prospectus PECOTA similarities would be instructive, but those aren't public yet.
So, what do you guys think of Beckett's future?
UPDATE: Jason Grey of Mastersball.com, a good friend of mine, comments that Beckett seems like he may end up similar to NONE of the pitchers on this list in the long run. Beckett's blister problems are certainly not in the same category of injury as the severe arm problems that derailed guys like Soto or McMurtry. I am planning another post about Beckett soon but have to gather additional data first.