Dansby Swanson 2017: Projections vs reality

Continuing our series looking at the results of the community projections, we turn our attention to Dansby Swanson of the Atlanta Braves. The other projections we’ve examined have been pretty close to reality but in this case the community missed badly.

The community projection was posted March 16, 2017. We posited 149 games, 544 at-bats, 84 runs, 160 hits, 27 doubles, 4 triples, 12 homers, 57 walks, 94 strikeouts, 14 steals, 5 caught stealing, 4 HBP, slash line .293/.364/.424, OPS .788.

The actual results with two games left in the season: 142 games, 479 at-bats, 57 runs, 110 hits, 23 doubles, 2 triples, 6 homers, 59 walks, 119 strikeouts, 3 steals, 3 caught stealing, 0 HBP, slash line .230/.312/.324, OPS .635.

Obviously we were way, way off. I still retain faith in Swanson’s ability to be an excellent player. His defense has been quite good and will keep him in the lineup long enough for the hitting to come around.

By way of comparison, here are the results from the sophisticated projection systems:

Steamer: 138 games, 535 at-bats, 66 runs, 138 hits, 27 doubles, 4 triples, 13 homers, 47 walks, 120 strikeouts, 9 steals, 5 caught, slash line .259/.322/.395, .717 OPS.

ZIPS: 133 games, 521 at-bats, 71 runs, 132 hits, 28 doubles, 7 triples, 12 homers, 51 walks, 123 strikeouts, 7 steals, 2 caught, slash line .253/.323/.403, .726 OPS.

PECOTA: 562 at-bats, 76 runs, 139 hits, 27 doubles, 4 triples, 16 homers, 55 walks, 141 strikeouts, 6 steals, 2 caught, slash line .254/.326/.408, .734 OPS.

The projection systems were notably less bullish than the community projection but were still too enthusiastic, especially with power.