Washington Nationals MOD #1

by christophersgeissler on May 7, 2025 11:45 PM EDT

Under Mike Rizzo, the Nationals have consistently gone over slot to buy talented high schoolers away from their college commitments. From both the draft and free agency, it is clear that he has no issue negotiating with Scott Boras. This year is a bit different for two reasons. First, under the new CBA, it will be more difficult to go over slot for talent due to the steep penalties that a team incurs if it spends more than it is allotted (I assume that no team including the Nationals intends to go well over slot and forfeit future picks and pay penalties). I am not sure how this will fit into the Nationals draft strategy, but it is something to discuss. Secondly, the Nats are not picking near the top of the draft.

Rizzo is known to like toolsy players. In pitchers in particular, he likes velocity and size as evidenced by both their recent drafts and their current rotation. Under Rizzo, they have drafted a mix of high school and college players, and I would expect this trend to continue. Looking at the current roster and their tendencies, I'd expect they would strongly consider starting pitching and up-the-middle position players with their early round picks.
Here are a handful of guys who may be available at 16 and could be of interest. I would love to hear feedback with regards to both the overall draft strategy, and specific players who you guys like and think I should target. I need to confirm this, but I believe that the Nats have picks 16, 76, and 106 in the mock draft. If there are additional supplemental picks in rounds two or three, the second and third round picks might be slightly different.

Lucas Giolito, HS, RHP

Max Fried, HS, LHP

Gavin Ceccini, HS, SS

Zach Eflin, HS, RHP

Michael Wacha, Texas A&M, RHP

Andrew Heany, Ok St. LHP

Albert Almora, HS, CF

Matt Smoral, HS, LHP

I'll post more on these guys as well as some other potential picks, but wanted to get something up and start getting feedback on what you all think.

Tweet Comment 7 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I realize you can never have too much pitching but with Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gonzalez, Detwiller already in the majors. Plus Rosenbaum, Purke, Meyer, Solis, Ray & Estevez already with in the minors i dont see us drafting a quick to the majors college pitcher early in the draft.

Our early picks are most likely spent on a high upside hs pitcher who with the guys ahead of him will have time to develop or a bat to help our offense.

by mwyche on May 8, 2025 12:09 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

If Giolto is still available at 16, the Nats will grab him right away. I don’t know too much about the draft, but he is a high ceiling pitcher and his injury doesn’t look like it will effect his long term value. Some teams may be afraid of this and with that said, i think the Nats could get a huge steal if Giolito is still there.

by WashingtonNationals on May 8, 2025 6:09 AM EDT reply actions

I agree that Giolito would likely represent great value at 16, if he is there. One thing we’ll need to keep an eye is whether he’ll be signable given the money available with the 16th pick. I also think a high upside pitcher is a likely target for the reasons mentioned above. The pitching seems to be better in this draft than the hitting and there may be better value there with pitchers as a result. Given the Nats current roster and the fact that they have a lot of good, young pitchers locked up for a while, taking a lower ceiling quick-to-the-majors arm does not make a ton of sense.

by christophersgeissler on May 8, 2025 11:59 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah I really think we’re leaning towards a low-floor high ceiling prospect in the draft this year. A lot of Rizzo’s early drafts centered around high-floor low ceiling prospects because the Farm System was barren and couldn’t afford to miss on an early pick. We’ll likely take more risks this year than in years past.

I also don’t think Gioloto is going to be picked considering our draft budget. Unless his bonus demands lower it’s just not feasible.

by mwyche on May 8, 2025 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

HSer? They only signed 1 HS last year

Rizzo is a college guy, he may go the college closer route again. Don’t see him going HSer at all.

by VladiHondo on May 9, 2025 4:39 PM EDT reply actions

It is fair that most of their recent drafts have been more college heavy, but last year I think that was a product of circumstance more than anything. At 6, they took Rendon who was the highest rated player on almost any draft board you could find (BA had him #1). And the strength of the draft was clearly college pitching which led to them being able to nab Alex Meyer later in the first, and Matt Purke a bit later.

I guess it is possible that they could look to a potential fast mover with their first pick (Marcus Stroman?) who could help the team out of the bullpen in the pennant race or to start next year, but I think that is less likely than some of the alternatives. It seems as if the strength of this years class is more on the high school side and I would guess that because of that, they are more likely to target HSers if they are the best talents available.

What do others think of this? If I am in the minority on this opinion and others would prefer going with a safer college pick, we can definitely think more about what prospects fit this mold and may be available.

by christophersgeissler on May 10, 2025 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

I think your reasoning is sound

I’m not sure anyone is really sure how the nationals will adapt to the new draft rules. Before it was pretty easy to identify guys the nationals would target just based on rumored bonus demands. Now, who knows. They certainly weren’t afraid to pay a.j. cole a bundle of money, and rendon proved theyd take best player availible regardless of a potential position log jam. I do think there will be an emphasis on pitching once again, however.

by feichan on May 10, 2025 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions