Astros Top 40 Prospects (Yes, you read that right) for 2010
I know there is a ton of interest in the depths of the Astros minor league system, and since John is probably saving the best for last, I thought I'd give it a shot. I expect 100+ responses in the next few days, but hopefully this thread won't crash the site.
1. Jason Castro, C
2. Jordan Lyles, P
3. Jiovanni Mier, SS
4. Ross Seaton, P
5. Jay Austin, OF
6. Sam Gervacio, P
7. Chia Jen Lo, P
8. Tanner Bushue, P
9. Jon Gaston, OF
10. T.J. Steele, OF
11. Chris Johnson, 3B
12. Brad Dydalewicz, P
13. Koby Clemens, OF
14. Dallas Keuchel, P
15. Brian Bogusevic, OF
16. Collin DeLome, OF
17. Tommy Manzella, SS
18. Jack Shuck, OF
19. Polin Trinidad, P
20. Edgar Ferreira, P
21. Julio Martinez, OF
22. Jonathan Meyer, C/3B?
23. Enrique Hernandez, 2B/SS
24. Fernando Abad, P
25. Jose Altuve, 2B
26. Telvin Nash, 1B
27. Kyle Greenwalt, P
28. Erik Castro, 3B
29. Henry Villar, P
30. Dan Meszaros, P
31. Jose Vallejo, 2B
32. Brian Pellegrini, OF
33. David Duncan, P
34. Yuri Perez, P
35. Andrew Locke, OF
36. Leandro Cespedes, P
37. Matt Nevarez, P
38. Jonathan Fixler, C
39. Jonathan Mejia, SS/3B
40. Sergio Perez, P
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3 decent propsects and then the system falls off a cliff
And the sad part is that this is a marked improvement from previous years.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Jan 4, 2026 5:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
well...
I agree, but if they had a decent 4, 5, 6, 7 prospect, pushing everyone else down 4 spots, the system wouldn’t look nearly as awful. Granted, that isn’t going to happen next week, but one nice draft and a couple upside players with impressive 2010 seasons, and the system will look decent.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 4, 2026 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
That probably isn’t true. Both would probably rank ahead of him, but I like Jio a lot.
by jar75 on Jan 4, 2026 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
I think they are all around the same, in the 50-80 range overall. I’d probably have Castro in the high 50s, Lyles in the mid 60s, and Mier in the mid-high 70s.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 4, 2026 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to throw my name in the ring
I’m sure I can crack that list somewhere. Just need to convince those boys to offer me a contract… after what they gave Brandon Lyon, though, I like my chances.
by Conjunction on Jan 4, 2026 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No Vallejo?
He was ~#20 last year in the Rangers’ system.
|Space for Rent|
by RangerMad on Jan 4, 2026 7:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I guess I did overlook him. He was 24th in the Rangers system last year, and did get a C+ based on a jump in his power in 2008 - 11 HR in 627 PA, to go along with 42 SB. He returned to his previous power numbers, 2 HR in 412 PA, and only had 10 SB in 2009. He did spend most of his time at a new level in AAA (at 22 - he turned 23 in Sept), but also only batted .233 there with a .281 OBP and .307 SLG, with a fairly weak BB/K ratio. He is considered a very good defender, so maybe he has a future as a utility guy. He belongs on the list (I hated putting Clark there anyway), but I don’t think he can be too much higher than 30th. I’ll add him.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 4, 2026 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Big Jay Austin fan here...
Big upside potential to me.
by soccerman0 on Jan 4, 2026 8:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jonathan Mejia
I know he was Houston’s top international signee before Ferreira, but what else do you know about him that allows him to crack the list?
by byronlhsdrmr on Jan 5, 2026 12:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
He’s the only other international signee I’ve heard anything about really. It seems like he has a good bat, and I think the other candidates to fill out the bottom of the top 40 are mainly guys that just have a prayer to make it as a bench player or middle reliever. I’d rather take my chances with an upside young player. After #36, I’m not too married to anyone making someone else’s top 40 list. It is a thin system.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 5, 2026 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Could be higher
Bushue
Steele
DeLome
Meyer
Ferreira
Cespedes
Nevarez
by byronlhsdrmr on Jan 5, 2026 12:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
eh
Locke isn’t someone I’m too excited about. I think he is worse than Pelligrini. Could be one spot below him though I suppose, but it would be tough for me to move Locke much. 30-36 are somewhat interchangeable I suppose.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 5, 2026 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Bushue really doesn’t have much further to go up in my mind. I think he is behind Seaton and Austin and in the same rough category as the two RP prospects. Whether he is ahead of them or behind them is not really that important.
I like Steele, but I could only see him switched with Gaston. They are roughly the same age, and Gaston had more impressive numbers in the same park this year.
DeLome doesn’t have tremendous upside either. After Steele, I could see a lot of guys shifted around. Probably the 11-16 prospects could be sorted out in the opposite order and it wouldn’t mean that much.
Meyer could have been higher I suppose. I think he has way too many questions around him right now. He could crack the top 20, but it seems to me like he is going to have develop as a good defensive catcher to have a real major league impact. I’m not sold at all.
Ferreira was kind of a guess. I’d love to go ahead and rank him in the top 15, but he is too much of an unknown. He is sort of in the camp of Meyer and Nash, but I’ll give credit to the high draft picks over the decent international guy.
Cespedes I think is a pure relief prospect at this point. I think the same is true for Nevarez. I think they are behind Meszaros, so you could put them as high as 30/31, but I wouldn’t like seeing them ranked in the top 25 or anything.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 5, 2026 12:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Id have trouble deciding between Mier and Lyles
I know everyone loves Castro now… and everyone is all excited he didnt turn out to be a bust. Umm… what exactly does he do all that well again? Just another catcher/up the middle player with no major weaknesses and no major strengths that is getting overrated. Those guys always get overrated. Nothing about Castro says “impact player.”
Castro is pretty good and a very good prospect. Love to have him on my team. He’s nothing special, though.
by alskor on Jan 5, 2026 12:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Castro
Lots of things say he can be an impact player. He’s sharp and polished defensively. He’s a good hitter for average with good strike zone judgment. His power exploded in college after he got some experience and while he’s not a slugger, I think his true power output will sit considerably higher than what he showed in AA.
A guy who can be both above-average defensively and above-average offensively for his position (regardless of what that position is) is clearly a potential impact player.
I love Mier but waiting on him to make a good impression with the bat in the Sally League (more scouting-wise than numbers-wise) to rank him really aggressively, doing so right now is just trying to be fashionable IMO. Lyles is a nice prospect but I like him more for his relatively high floor than his upside.
by mrkupe on Jan 5, 2026 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Probably just semantics here
but above average offense and defense isnt really an “impact player” for me. For me, an impact guy has to be more than a solid MLB regular/ slightly above average guy. Im thinking a guy with skills/tools that can change a game. Castro doesnt strike me as somebody like that. Im not as optimistic as you about his power ceiling, but I havent given it a long look or a whole lot of thought. You make some good points.
by alskor on Jan 5, 2026 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Could be Lower
Gervacio
Clemens
JD Martinez
Greenwalt
Altuve
Nash
Meszaros
Pellegrini
by byronlhsdrmr on Jan 5, 2026 12:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
hmm...
Gervacio can’t be too much lower. I guess you could drop him as low as 10 if you had total faith in the upside guys. I still prefer him to Lo, so 9th would be as low as I could go. Obviously you are very high on Bushue and Steele, so you’d bump him down a couple spots because of that. I want to wait and see on those guys.
Clemens could be lower. I had a hard time placing Clemens, Bogusevic, Manzella, and Trinidad. I think that is the right order, but the whole group could be lowered I suppose. I fully expect several of the prospects ranked lower than those 4 to overtake them this year, but I don’t really know which ones will do so. I guess I’m not as prepared to bullishly support certain particular unknowns over others.
I think JD Martinez is underrated. All he does is hit. I hope they move him along steadily. I wouldn’t have a major problem with a ranking that had the upside unknown guys like Meyer or Ferreira or Nash ahead of him. But I like him enough, and think those “upside” guys are very unproven and full of concerns.
Greenwalt isn’t great but he is young and pitched decently well. You seem to think that I have 22-29 ordered poorly I guess. I think it is more that I am not nearly as high on the real unproven guys as you are, except for Nash. I can’t understand why you’d give up on a power project but have such faith in a project like Meyer. They have equally low chances to make a ML impact in my opinion, and I can’t see a good reason to place them far apart from each other.
Altuve could be lower I suppose. He is only 5-5 or 5-6, but he was very impressive for his age. I think you either leave him off the list entirely because you don’t believe someone that small can play major league second base, or you put him around where I have him.
What do you like about Cespedes and Nevarez that you don’t like about Meszaros? He was very good in the AFL after a shaky start (15:3 K:BB in 11.2IP - 0.94 WHIP). He had a little bit of an adjustment problem moving from A to AA, but overall he pitched pretty well. I suppose he is somewhat interchangeable with Cespedes or Nevarez, but I like him more.
Pellegrini is underrated. He is hits for power. He steals bases. He might not hit for a high enough average to be an effective major leaguer, but he walks a lot and doesn’t have an overly excessive K rate.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 5, 2026 1:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Meyer walks
Plus arm, average fielder, he walks a ton already, yes he strikes out, yes his contact rate needs to rise and power has to develop, but there is a lot to already like in Meyer.
I don’t see anything to like about Nash except power potential right now.
by byronlhsdrmr on Jan 5, 2026 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Most tempting...
The most tempting players to move up would be Edgar Ferreira and Enrique Hernandez. I’d love to see John put them both in the top 20. If he did that, I’d probably feel more comfortable moving them up myself. I am doubtful that he has either in the top 20 though.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 5, 2026 1:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Villar-Nevarez
Why is Villar 15 spots ahead of Nevarez? They’re both relief prospects with good results. Nevarez, though, at a higher level.
by byronlhsdrmr on Jan 5, 2026 11:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Villar should probably be moved down. I’m going to make some changes…
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 5, 2026 11:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Changes Made....
Risers:
Edgar Ferreira 7 spots
Enrique Hernandez 5 spots
Jonathan Meyer 2 spots
JD Martinez 1 spot
Fallers:
Henry Villar 7 spots
Kyle Greewalt 4 spots
Fernando Abad 4 spots
Added:
Erik Castro - don’t know why I didn’t include him to begin with (dropped everyone below him one spot - Luis Cruz bumped)
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 5, 2026 11:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I haven't set my final order yet but
here is my 40..
1 Jordan Lyles , P , HOU
2 Jason Castro , C , HOU
3 Jiovanni Mier , SS , HOU
4 Ross Seaton , P , HOU
5 Koby Clemens , C , HOU
6 Jon Gaston , OF , HOU
7 Chia Jen Lo , P , HOU
8 Collin Delome , OF , HOU
9 Jay Austin , OF , HOU
10 JB Shuck , OF , HOU
11 TJ Steele , OF , HOU
12 Jose Altuve , 2B , HOU
13 Jose Vallejo , 2B , HOU
14 Henry Villar , P , HOU
15 Robert Bono , P , HOU
16 Sam Gervacio , P , HOU
17 Kyle Greenwalt , P , HOU
18 Brian Bogusevic , OF , HOU
19 Brad Dydalewicz , P , HOU
20 Chad Reineke , P , HOU
21 Chris Hicks , P , HOU
22 Chris Johnson , 3B , HOU
23 Tanner Bushue , P , HOU
24 Felipe Paulino , P , HOU
25 Polin Trinidad , P , HOU
26 Sergio Perez , P , HOU
27 Brian Kemp OF HOU
28 Telvin Nash , OF , HOU
29 Yorman Bazardo , P , HOU
30 Leandro Cespesdes , P , HOU
31 Fernando Abad , P , HOU
32 Tommy Manzella , SS , HOU
33 Yuri Perez , P , HOU
34 Yonathan Mejia , SS , HOU
35 Grant Hogue HOU
36 Dallas Keuchel , P , HOU
37 Julio Martinez HOU
38 Brian Pellegrini HOU
39 Mitch Einertson , OF , HOU
40 David Duncan , P , HOU
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by garrioch13 on Jan 5, 2026 9:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
wowzers
That is very different from my list. Reineke was traded. Bazardo is no longer a prospect.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 5, 2026 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and paulino is no longer a prospect either.
by auclairkeithbc on Jan 5, 2026 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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