Update
by John Sickels
on Aug 11, 2025 4:54 PM EDT
13 comments
In case you missed it, the Pirates signed Louisiana high school right-hander Zach Von Rosenberg as a sixth round pick for $1.2 million. He was worthy of going in the supplemental first round on draft day, so this is further evidence that the Pirates are committed to building from within and will take signability risks. I picked him in the fifth round of the Twins Shadow Draft, and would certainly pay that price for him.
My main focus here for the next period of time is reviewing the Top 20 Prospect lists from pre-season and seeing how they look now. I will try to do two lists a day, though travel plans might delay that at times. I'm heading on another road trip this week, down to Tulsa and Oklahoma City. Tomorrow I will post list reviews for the Cardinals and Blue Jays.
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Are you going to be in Tulsa tommorrow?
that would be a prime day to be there as Martin Perez, yes, he’s 18 yrs old, will be making his AA debut and it would be pretty awesome if you got to see it and report on it.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Aug 11, 2025 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nope
No, due to family obligations I can’t get down to Tulsa until Thursday. However, I will be in Tulsa again on Monday, so perhaps Perez will start that game too.
by John Sickels on Aug 11, 2025 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Frisco won't be there on Monday
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Aug 11, 2025 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dammit
Good point….for some reason part of me still thinks of Tulsa as a Rangers farm team, not a Rockies farm team. Old programming.
by John Sickels on Aug 11, 2025 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmm
does this make up for reaching to take sanchez?
by jpahk on Aug 11, 2025 11:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Von Rosenberg
Wow, I see that bonus as being very high. The Giants were just able to sign their 6th round pick (he went 2 picks after ZVR), Matt Graham, for only $500,000. I realize that ZVR ended up being rated a lot higher on most boards, but I would argue that, with a few tweaks of his mechanics and some good coaching, Graham’s ceiling is higher than ZVR’s.
Even if you don’t agree with that, you have to admit that the Pirate’s strategy of drafting Tony Sanchez at #4 looks even more suspect now. They ended up shelling out $4.7M for just Sanchez and ZVR alone. Instead of that, they could have had Zack Wheeler at #4 and ZVR for only about $5M, with a good chance of Sanchez (or another top catcher) still being available with their 1st round supplemental pick for only $700K more. That’s just one example, the possibilities were endless. In the end, it just seems to me that the Pirates payed way too much money for the players they drafted. On the positive side, at least they were able to sign all of their picks from the 1st 9 rounds this year.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Aug 12, 2025 4:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How does it look more suspect now? They took the C they believed was the best C in the draft at 4 to save money (they saved less than they thought I think since he signed for just over slot but they still saved money on the guys we and analysts have been saying they should have taken) and then backed that up with several high ceiling picks that they went above slot for. If their draft budget was $10 mill (which I believe NH said was approved for each of his first 3 years) and they spent $7 mill on 1.4, they have $3 mill for the other 49 rounds. If they sign someone for $2.5 mill (I think Sanchez signed for about that), they have $7.5 mill left for the other 49 rounds.
Besides, you are assuming Zach Von Rosenberg would have signed for less because the Giants picked signed for less and that makes no sense what so ever. Hindsight is always 20/20, the Pirates took their top guy and the C they believed to be the best in the class with their top pick and you shouldn’t being faulting them for doing so. As DePodesta said on his blog last year, there really are no overdrafts. It’s impossible to guess what 29 other teams are going to do so you make your draft board with the players you like the most at the top and do what you can to get those guys which Sanchez obviously was one of them.
by jfish26101 on Aug 12, 2025 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You didn’t answer any of my points.
1. You stated that if they “…spent $7 mill on 1.4, they have $3 mill for the other 49 rounds.” But, that’s a straw man argument. There was only one guy still available at #4 that was asking for that much $$$ (Tyler Matzek), meanwhile there was a veritable smorgasbord of high-ceiling HS and college pitchers and fielders available that will end up signing for not much more than what they gave Sanchez. If you’re going to save money by drafting a player way above his appropriate pick number, then you actually need to follow through and save the money. Sanchez was not a good value at #4 unless they signed him for way under slot (like the Nats did with Drew Storen at #10). If they were so worried about not having enough money to sign their high school kids and Latin American FA’s, then they should have drafted one of the stud starting pitchers at #4 and then stuck to slot in the negotiations. That would have put them in a win-win situation. If he signs for slot they get great value, but if he doesn’t sign then they still get the #5 pick in next year’s draft - a draft that’s already being regarded as better and deeper than this years and should yield a much better prospect than Sanchez. Not to mention that they’ll also have their regular pick for 2010, which looks sure to be between #2 and 7. What a coup that would be to have 2 of the top 7 picks.
2. If they liked HS guys like ZVR and Cain so much, had them rated so highly on their board, and were willing to give them so much $$$ over slot, then why wait so long to pick them? They took a huge chance that some other team wouldn’t take them off the board before the 6th and 8th rounds.
3. Since they were obviously willing to take gambles in terms of waiting to draft players they had rated highly, then it seems that taking a gamble on Sanchez still being available with their supplemental pick would have been a good one. As I stated above, if they had taken Zack Wheeler or Hobgood at #4, Sanchez in the 1s, and ZVR in the 6th, they could have added a top-ranked SP to their top 2 guys, and ended up only spending around $400K more than what they’ve already shelled out for Sanchez and ZVR alone. And don’t try to tell me that they had no way of knowing what the bonuses for Sanchez, Hobgood and Wheeler were going to be, because it’s obvious that the contracts for those 3 were all but signed before the draft even started.
4. I didn’t read the post you referenced, but if it’s accurate, then DePodesta is wrong. There are such things as over-drafts. We see them every year in every pro sport draft. Every year there are multiple teams picking players more for their easy signability, ability to fill a position of need, or so-called “safer” path to a starting spot, instead of going for the best player available. History usually shows these picks to be mistakes in the long run.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Aug 12, 2025 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1) They signed four high ceiling HS picks that were available later at much lower costs than someone like Matzek. They still get high ceiling ptichers in the system. Yet the risk is lower for a team that can’t afford to make huge mistakes. Why take on another HS pitcher with as much if not more risk in the first round that would have cost so much more than the players they were able to sign?
2) Because they were willing to pay above slot and knew they didn’t have to take them earlier. Why take them earlier instead of taking signable players they figured wouldn’t be available later?
3) They knew there was no way Sanchez would be available with their supplemental pick.
4) When the best player available is a HS pitcher in the MLB draft then I have to say history has shown that it is a massive crap shoot. Emphasis on the crap.
The whole thing is pretty simple. Maybe Huntington will be proven wrong. Maybe his player evaluation skills will prove to be poor. Maybe he will just prove to be unlucky. But his thought process isn’t that hard to understand.
by haven on Aug 12, 2025 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
/me sighs
1) This doesn’t even need answered again because I answered it fine the first time. If you spend less on your 1st round pick, you have more money to spend on the rest of your draft. How do you not understand this?
2) Maybe they felt more confident they would be there later? Maybe they didn’t think Sanchez would be? Maybe they really did think Sanchez was the BPA at the time given the risk vs. reward? I wasn’t in their draft room so have no idea but regardless their draft strategy was fine.
3) They may not have had the money to do all of that but more likely is that they didn’t like Miller or Wheeler or Hobogood or anyone else YOU think they should have taken. They built their board and to the best of my knowledge followed it.
4) DePodesta’s point is you take the guys that you have followed, that you like, and that you placed at the top of your draft board. If you do that then it wasn’t an overdraft. You can argue all you want but if you drafted the guys you want then it was a successful draft. Now you certainly can argue whether they took who you think they should have but that really doesn’t matter one bit. Hindsight is 20/20, you can go through any draft of any team and say “they should have taken ____” just like you can with FA or trades.
Thanks to haven for chiming in.
by jfish26101 on Aug 13, 2025 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Math?
Correction:
They ended up shelling out$4.7M$3.7M for just Sanchez and ZVR alone. Instead of that, they could have had Zack Wheeler at #4 and ZVR for only about$5M$4M
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Aug 12, 2025 5:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pirates signed HS pitchers Von Rosenberg, Cain, Stevenson and Dodson to above slot contracts and college catcher Sanchez is hitting in WV. Also signed Black, Pounders, Baker and Chambers to slot or below slot deals. Likely will have out spent all major league teams on their draft except the Nationals because of Strasburg. So basically they did what they said they would do so I’m not going to complain.
by haven on Aug 12, 2025 8:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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