True or False: American League ROY
True or False:
The American League Rookie of the Year will NOT be one of the following players: Evan Longoria, Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, Jacoby Ellsbury.
If this statement is true, who will it be?
If this statement is false and one of those players will be ROY, which one and why?
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False
I think it'll be Ellsbury. Not that he's a better player than the others, but the Sox will remain high profile all year and he's already got a strong media buzz going.
Outside of those four, maybe Alexei Ramirez?
by fridge on Mar 24, 2026 6:09 PM EDT 0 recs
I agree with that completely.
www.mavsmoneyball.com
by Wes Cox on
Mar 24, 2026 6:39 PM EDT
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True
I think Daric Barton will surprise a lot of people with his power to go along with a good batting avg. This kid has a great approach at the plate.
Longoria - Might get jerked around by the Rays.
Buchholz - great future, but I expect him to take some lumps this time around.
Chamberlain - Will need to pitch like last year to get serious consideration, especially if he ends up in the bullpen for the entire season.
Ellsbury - Overrated, people have set expectations really high, too high.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on Mar 24, 2026 6:12 PM EDT 0 recs
agree totally with you
touchdown... touchdown... and st.micheals takes the lead.
by kmacsm on
Mar 27, 2026 9:58 AM EDT
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True
Daric Barton. He'll blow past his PECOTA projection and show a decent amount of power, which should shock.
Evan's spending extra time on the farm will hurt him-he's no Ryan Braun. Joba's spending too much time in the pen. Clay's gonna be good, but he'll probably split the vote with Ellsbury, who is an overrated centerfielder (good player, but not as good as the hype).
by demondeaconsbaseball on Mar 24, 2026 6:14 PM EDT 0 recs
True
David Price
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on Mar 24, 2026 6:17 PM EDT 0 recs
not
after this injury.
"The Blue Jays won't win another playoff game until the Yankees and Red Sox are contracted." - Tom Berenger
by PujolsJunkie on
Mar 24, 2026 6:39 PM EDT
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Yeah
Missed that before my post. Well, I'm still going to stick with true...but not sure who.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Mar 24, 2026 7:19 PM EDT
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OK
I'm gonna cheat a little and say either Adam Miller or Max Ramirez. Both longshots, but why not?
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Mar 24, 2026 8:50 PM EDT
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FALSE
The media has been obsessed with these four this winter which leads me to believe one will pull it out.
I'm going to go with this order:
Longoria
Ellsbury
Chamberlain
Buchholz
by Diamond Cutter on Mar 24, 2026 6:21 PM EDT 0 recs
I would have went with Longoria
but not with the Rays cheaping out to keep him from Super Two status. I'm a Barton hater, so I'll have to go with Buchholz.
by number_twentyone on Mar 24, 2026 6:53 PM EDT 0 recs
This is not true
He's going to be a super 2. He'll be up by early May. I've heard from someone within the organization that Friedman wants to keep him down about 20 games. It's all about the extra year, not arbitration.
by Tyler on
Mar 25, 2026 7:57 PM EDT
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True
Always, always, ALWAYS take the field versus any top prospect in terms of ROY voting. It's the easiest bet on earth.
Oh -- I have to say who I think it will be, too? But, but, but......but that goes against the very principle that I'm suggesting: that you'll never, ever be able to guess who the ROY will be, and, whatever else is true, he WON'T be one of the three or four most highly touted prospects.
I like Longoria, Buccholz and Chamberlain, and Daric Barton (Ellsbury is the same decent player who doesn't deserve the hype that he's always been). But goddamnit -- by the very fact that they're top prospects, they will not go home with this year's award.
Who to choose then? Hell -- I don't know. I think Carlos Gomez and Ian Kennedy are both mediocre -- that should put them in PERFECT position to win the award. Or maybe Jeff Clement finds himself a place to play? I don't know. But, if I haven't made this clear enough already, I DO know to take the field.
by bleedjaxblue on Mar 24, 2026 6:58 PM EDT 0 recs
Gomez can't win the award
had too many service days
by Bravesin07 on
Mar 24, 2026 8:08 PM EDT
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i don't believe that's true
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080310&content;_id=356278&vkey;=news_milb&fext;=.jsp
by bleedjaxblue on
Mar 24, 2026 8:18 PM EDT
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Always selling yourself short brother...
Don't get me wrong...you are brilliant man... but, pick somebody! lol. You can do it! Seriously, you have some points... escpecially about being mediocre enough to qualify for the award: classic stuff...and I agree that taking the field to win is wise... against any ONE top prospect but, when you take 5 legitamate ones though I'd have to say one of them will be the favorite.
Me? Im a visionary in my own mind so.... my 2008 roy's... in order
1. Jacoby Ellsburry: I am neither a Boston hater or lover nor do I let the hype surrounding a player effect my opinion of them. Therefore, I'm able to appreciate him for what he is. So he hits .288, scores 108 runs, wows the masses with a million great catches on sporscenter and hits a lot of TRIPLES! He may be just good enough (and mediocre enough) to wn this thing
2. Joba is going to be sensational in relief then, as a starter.
3.Barton hits .292 with 16 homers and knocks in 84 runs
by casejud on
Mar 25, 2026 12:45 AM EDT
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i'm willing to predict....
.....careers for all of them -- and i did. i also predicted that all of those guys will disappoint enough not to win the award. what more do you want? me to pick this year's Joakim Soria?
ok, fine. you heard it here first: despite the fact that he'll have a disappointing career, Brandon Wood will slug 23 homers, enough to win the AL ROY in an otherwise disappointing year. Barton comes in second. despite having a much more productive year, voters underappreciate his on-base percentage and the doubles, and punish him for his place on the defensive spectrum.
the expectations for Joba are too high for him to live up to, and voters undercompensate for the high ERAs inherent to AL East pitchers. roughly the same happens to Buccholz, who also doesn't pitch as well as Joba, though he goes on to have the better career.
only ends up with 390 ABs, hitting .270 with 12 homers. not a bad start to his career, but he's no Ryan Braun in terms of pure offensive upside.
oh -- i also like Nick Adenhart long-term, but i don't think this year will be a particularly good one.
how's that for a prediction?
by bleedjaxblue on
Mar 26, 2026 12:44 AM EDT
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Longoria's the one....
.....with 390 ABs. don't know how i omitted that.
by bleedjaxblue on
Mar 26, 2026 1:11 AM EDT
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Thats okay
I was just joking around with ya anyways. Still, I guess im fond of predictions. All sounds reasonable but, I still think they'll hand the thing to Ellsbury but we'll see. Whenever i say "we'll see" I feel like I am copping out. I would be a hell of a thing to HAVE to predict the future for a living wouldn't it? Even something I know a little about, like baseball, it is so unpredictable...sometimes. This is what I write like when I am tired. I lose all my confidence and i am more compassionate...about everything.
by casejud on
Mar 26, 2026 1:11 PM EDT
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my dark horse
Gio.... if he's up in May/June, then I think he has a shot. he's a gamer, and his stuff will be tough for hitters facing him for the first time
by daveh33 on Mar 24, 2026 7:23 PM EDT 0 recs
Longoria
Joba is gonna bomb in '08. I'm not buying the hype based on 20 or so innings last year. Especially when the Yankees start jacking him around between the bullpen and rotation mid-year.
I see Ellsbury having a marginal .265/.325/.400 season.
Buchholz will be solid but unspectacular - certainly won't put up ROY numbers, I see him 10-10, 4.40
Longoria should be solid enough to win the thing unless Barton or someone else steals the show
by vetsurg on Mar 24, 2026 8:16 PM EDT 0 recs
Waa!
Okay there Debbie Downer...lol. Anybody you DO like?
Not that it matters much. It's not like you are too concearned about accuracy here but the Yankees are going to pitch Joba in relief and THEN move him into the rotation...once
Jacoby will have a much, much better season than that. In fact I will bet you if you'd like.
Could be right about Buchholz.
Longoria could be good enough to win the thing even if he starts it in May but, my bet is a full season of Ellsbury wins the thing.
by casejud on
Mar 25, 2026 12:50 AM EDT
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Well most rookies don't do sensationally their first year
A .725 OPS for Ellsbury is pretty close to what Gordon and Young did last year, significantly higher rated prospects. That isn't to say that prospects don't have great years their first time (Braun, Pence and Tulowitzki certainly did last year), but any particular prospect is more likely to do only decently his first try
by OldProspects on
Mar 25, 2026 3:12 AM EDT
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True-
Joba will start eventually and his numbers will be fine for a rookie starter but dissapointing to those who thought he was Walter Johnson last year
Bucholz will also not get enough time- Sox will baby his arm and be reluctant to pitch him enough with so many pitching options.
Ellsbury- will have a nice year but with Crisp still there may only get 400 at bats he'll finish top 3
Longoria will be up in May and he certainly could do it- he's had a wonderful spring- he's the best bet
I like D Barton and Alexi Ramirez in Chicago could surprise Adam Miller may be needed in Cleveland as well as Porcello in Detroit-
Longoria is the best guess from that list but ya never know who starts off as Alex Gordon and who is a Pujoles
by ribman on Mar 24, 2026 8:28 PM EDT 0 recs
No way
There is not a chance Rick Porcello comes up before September to the big club in Detroit. Dombrowski and Leyland are smarter than that.
by demondeaconsbaseball on
Mar 24, 2026 8:46 PM EDT
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are you serious?
with porcello?? LOL
he could make it to AA and go 8-0 with a 1.5 ERA and they still wouldnt call him up.
by jsmall404 on
Mar 25, 2026 1:14 AM EDT
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True
Like everybody else, I'm going with Barton. I'm not sure anybody thinks more highly of him than I do though.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on Mar 24, 2026 8:43 PM EDT 0 recs
False.
Ian Kennedy will surprise everyone - everyone thinks that he has a ceiling of a 4th starter... but his combination of incredible control with a good change will make him a very consistent well above average starter.
by ahmgmer on Mar 24, 2026 8:51 PM EDT 0 recs
+1
Kennedy's combination of
a. mega run support
b. good polish
c. command
d. higher inning cap
e. higher media attention
will give him a better shot than Joba at least
by RollingWave on
Mar 25, 2026 1:37 AM EDT
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Gomez
Hey John, could you clear up the "Is Carlos Gomez a rookie" thing.
I was talking about that at another site too and I'd like to know for sure if he is.
Thanks
"Don't take anything for granted, because tomorrow is not promised to any of us."
by Twins Territory on Mar 24, 2026 8:57 PM EDT 0 recs
looking at the gamelog
i only count 41 days on the roster, so he should be a rookie (september games don't count)
by bleedjaxblue on
Mar 24, 2026 9:03 PM EDT
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days
Service time goes by days on the active roster, not games. He spent 53 days on the roster from May 13-July 4. He's not eligible.
by sublime911 on
Mar 24, 2026 10:13 PM EDT
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sorry
i read you're comment wrong, but i still think my dates are correct
by sublime911 on
Mar 24, 2026 10:13 PM EDT
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yes, your dates are correct
but i'm not sure about your math
30 days in June
+19 days in May
+ 4 days in July
--------------------------------
43 days
(i'd left off the first and last day in my quick math)
that makes him rookie eligible
by bleedjaxblue on
Mar 24, 2026 11:16 PM EDT
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Sombody famous...
...I'm sure but who is that dude in your picture BJB?
by casejud on
Mar 25, 2026 12:54 AM EDT
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Slim Charles...
...from The Wire.
Great show.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Mar 25, 2026 12:47 PM EDT
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Okay
Shoot, I LOVE The Wire. I only caught on for the last season though but, it was great. He must have been gone before that because I dont remember him. Loved the show though.
by casejud on
Mar 25, 2026 2:29 PM EDT
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yeah.....phenomenal show
shame you know the ending before you know the background. it's like reading the last page of a novel first. you should still check out the old seasons though. season 4 is undoubtedly the best thing ever. better than Pujols. no joke.
Slim Charles was actually around a fair amount in season 5 -- you just might not have known to pay attention to him without knowing his back story (the show juggles around a good 50 characters everyone should know, and probably at least 50 more who at least play minor roles. in season 5, though, Charles is Prop Joe's right-hand man. he's the one accosted be Omar in the stairwell, asked by Marlo if he wants to jump ship, and then the one who buys the connect from Omar after taking out Cheese out of honor. he also has a tendency to make points by saying the same thing twice in a sentence, but saying it with emphasis the second time. see, "That's the thing about the old days: they the OLD days" "It's what war is, you know? Once you in it, you IN it." etc etc etc. Dude's fucking awesome.
by bleedjaxblue on
Mar 26, 2026 12:51 AM EDT
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Oh okay
I need to watch them ALL again. I really liked Omar's character. I admit that I had a hard time following the show but, unlike most people I know that actually DREW me to the show. I found it to be a genuinly moving show and really common to ALL American cities if we pay attention to what is going on. Anyways, I couldn't wait for the show to come on each week.
Hey man! You finally caught on the the reason for my CAPS. Its just emphasis. Nothing big. I can't remeber if you actually had any problem with it or we're just teasing me or if it was somebody else from the same conversation but WHO CARES anyways?! ;-)
Bubbles was something too as a character huh? I feel like I like him more because i DIDN"T see what he was like as a raging drug addict. That is something I don't mind missing in somebody in real life too. I've seen enough of that to last a lifetime.
by casejud on
Mar 26, 2026 1:19 PM EDT
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If you liked Omar and just saw season 5
Watch the first four and he'll be your favorite ever. At least he's my favorite television character of all time. The Wire is one of my 3-5 favorite shows ever, too.
As for Bubs - you'll like him even during his addict days. It's frustrating at times, because you're rooting for the guy but he keeps making the mistakes. It was a lot like watching a friend go down that path. But you really need to see his entire transformation.
What? Baseball blog? Oh, right.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on
Mar 27, 2026 3:55 AM EDT
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Its all connected brother
Baeball, life.
Thats why its funny when a guy tries to come on here and say that the majors and minors arent even connected. Baseball connects to everyrything for those who love baseball.
by casejud on
Mar 27, 2026 3:25 PM EDT
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Carlos Gonzalez of the A's is very possibly
going to be taking over the centerfield slot??? He is a long shot and is starting the season on the d.l. But he has the tools if he is put out in center early in the season.
Charlie Brown GO A'S WIN
by Charlie Brown on Mar 24, 2026 9:27 PM EDT 0 recs
Opportunity Knocks
Yeah, Ellsbury is the next Scott Cooper in my mind.
Jobe and Ian Kennedy will have opportunity in New York. Brandon Wood seems to be blocked, but would have been my pick.
Carlos Gomez has won the job, if he still qualfies. Go Twins!
I'll make Nolan Reimold of the O's my longshot pick.
by tcbobo on Mar 24, 2026 9:41 PM EDT 0 recs
my off the wall guess is
Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle."
by erik on Mar 24, 2026 9:54 PM EDT 0 recs
False
I originally said True, but then I realized Ellsbury doesn't have to be the best rookie in the AL (he won't be) for him to dominate the voting.
by cowboy4eva on Mar 24, 2026 10:03 PM EDT 0 recs
Darkhorse
Shelley Duncan, if he gets enough at-bats. The combination of his power, and being in the Yankee lineup should help.
http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/
by hallofamer2000 on Mar 24, 2026 10:22 PM EDT 0 recs
None of those
I'm surprised nobody has suggested Adam Jones. Although, the frontrunners would have to collapse or get hurt for Jones to have a chance. Not sure if he's eligible, but I think he only had 51 AB last year (top of my head).
Although, I'm secretly hoping that the Indians brass wakes up and gives Ben Francisco an opening to batter the AL Central and win the award.
by lenred on Mar 24, 2026 11:49 PM EDT 0 recs
Not a Rookie
Service Days
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on
Mar 24, 2026 11:55 PM EDT
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FALSE
come on guys, Buccholtz. He threw an effing no hitter his 2nd start lol.
he will get 20+ starts and have a 3.6 ERA - probably 12 wins.
by jsmall404 on Mar 25, 2026 1:18 AM EDT 0 recs
well
no hitter isn't much of a indicator of future success. in fact no hall of famer had tossed one as a rookie. and quiet a few of the rookies that threw them had no career or not much of a career.
that's not really a knock on Buccholz. but it's just saying that a rookie that tossed a no hitter has no correlation with him being good later on in his career.
I don't think 20 starts with 3.6 ERA and 12 win will get it done for the ROY this year. Verlander won it with a 3.63 ERA ... but 17 wins and nearly 200 innings !
by RollingWave on
Mar 25, 2026 1:50 AM EDT
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RE
i wasnt saying that he threw a no hitter therefor he will be awesome..i was saying that as a basis to support that he has the stuff to do so.
Also, Verlander didnt play in boston..or maybe he would have won the ROY =)
The writers love voting for offensive players, but none jump out at me right now
by jsmall404 on
Mar 25, 2026 2:51 PM EDT
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True
I'm going with Philip Humber in the surprise of the year. He has the stuff and I think the move from New York will do the kid well.
by bbdbrandon on Mar 25, 2026 1:44 AM EDT 0 recs
False
Evan will pull a Braun, we all know this.
More importantly, what will FUKODOME DO?
KFC
by KFC on Mar 25, 2026 1:44 AM EDT 0 recs
Fukudome?
He will hit 90 jacks and steal 120 bases being so good he will win the AL ROY while even though he is in the NL. This will be mitigated because he hit 20 jacks and 30 steals during interleague play qualifying him for that award.
ps: he will lose in the MVP voting to Prior.
by pedrophile on
Mar 25, 2026 9:37 AM EDT
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Lowrie + True
Totally agreed with BJB on the field. Who thought someone like Pedroia or Okajima would have the seasons they did last year? And most didn't expect Verlander to start in the bigs so he wasn't a top choice.
Here is a possible name for this year: Lowrie
If Boston stops being patient with Lugo then Lowrie will have the job. And as shown by Bobby Crosby a rookie SS doesn't need to do much to win.
by pedrophile on Mar 25, 2026 9:34 AM EDT 0 recs
False
I think it will be Chamberlain - not so much by his performance this season (which I'm sure will be great), but he's already got the aura of *THE GREATEST 24 IP EVER* from last season giving him a leg up. Sure, last year's stats shouldn't count, but we're talking about the same general group of people that seem to think RsBI and W-L are serious stats...
"A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day." - Calvin
by RVachon on Mar 25, 2026 9:53 AM EDT 0 recs
True
I'm saying Jay Bruce, the man can play. The Reds will tire over Corey Patterson or there will be an injury and they will make the right move and put Bruce up there and never look back.
by Reddrummer9187 on Mar 25, 2026 11:08 AM EDT 0 recs
Bruce
If Bruce wins the AL ROY award, he will almost certainly have to be traded to a team in the AL.
Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."
by DaleCoop14 on
Mar 25, 2026 1:59 PM EDT
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Could happen
Dusty Baker will trade him for whoever signs Kenny Lofton
j/k, I felt obligated because of the numerous Baker Bashers here
by ScottAZ on
Mar 25, 2026 2:04 PM EDT
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I disagree
Alternatively, the Reds could be traded to the American League. Maybe for the Royals or something
by OldProspects on
Mar 26, 2026 10:25 AM EDT
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That trade doesn't help anybody.
But maybe a change of scenery would be good for both teams.
http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/
by thejd44 on
Mar 27, 2026 3:56 AM EDT
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True
Carlos Gomez, Minnesota Twins
If I owned a lightsaber, the blade color would be black light, so that I could use it to fight evil and to liven-up parties.
by rooster on Mar 25, 2026 11:52 AM EDT 0 recs
False
Ellsbury is in a big market & is so eye-catching that to lose he'll need to be outperformed significantly. Even Buchholz' no-hitter hasn't made him a bigger name than Ellsbury.
by random on Mar 25, 2026 12:03 PM EDT 0 recs
True
Barton. I really wouldn't be surprised if Ellsbury won it though. I don't think he will have a great year but will get plenty of steals and the Sox will be a good team yet again and he will get tons of hype.
by sublime911 on Mar 25, 2026 12:46 PM EDT 0 recs
RE -- FUKUDOME
Pedrophile: I like your predictions for both Prior and Fukudome. Thanks.
PS -- I know that FUKU is in the NL. Can't you tell by my Grumpy avatar that I'm sarcastic? What is the emoticon for sarcasm?
KFC
"It's not like the end of the world or something. Why should we panic?"
-- Manny being Manny
by KFC on Mar 25, 2026 2:17 PM EDT 0 recs
sarcasm isn't allowed here. Just ask the posting police.
I think they have a long list of what you can & should say.
by pedrophile on
Mar 25, 2026 6:46 PM EDT
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Umm....true.... duh
Its no direct shot to this award. I can give you a list of about 20 who could swoop in and take this award. Ross Detwiler, Clayton Kershaw, Jay Bruce, Fukodome, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, Cueto, Homer Bailey, Felix Pie. The list goes on........there is no way this is locked up and i guarantee its not gonna be joba chamberlain.... the dude is not gonna last as a starter when they try him there. Lifetime reliever.
by BaseBallr101 on Mar 25, 2026 2:45 PM EDT 0 recs
Unless I'm mistaken...
It's going to be pretty tough for Detwiler, Kershaw, Bruce, Fukodome, Votto, Cueto, Bailey and Pie to win the AL Rookie of the Year. So I guess your list of "about 20 who could swoop in" boils down to Volquez...
"A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day." - Calvin
by RVachon on
Mar 25, 2026 5:48 PM EDT
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Except
Volquez is with Cincy now.
Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball
by Yakker on
Mar 25, 2026 6:55 PM EDT
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Yup
Don't know how I let that slip my mind. Well, that seriously puts a dent in the list...
"A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day." - Calvin
by RVachon on
Mar 26, 2026 10:49 AM EDT
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R as in Rogie?
Are you by chance an LA Kings fa in Boston, MA?
I doubt it but that is a pretty uncommon name.
witty remark
by dtownmbrown on
Mar 29, 2026 4:34 AM EDT
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LOL
Nope, R as in Ryan. Most of my family is back in Maine, and originated from Quebec.
Though, sadly, I'm in San Francisco, not Boston. And soon to be in Minneapolis. Go figure.
"A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day." - Calvin
by RVachon on
Mar 29, 2026 5:51 PM EDT
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