AQA Thread

Melky Cabrera

Is he going over your expectation again?

by RollingWave on Aug 16, 2025 9:12 AM EDT 0 recs

melky

Eh...not really. After last year when I revised my opinion of him, I thought he was capable of stuff like this.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

Question

I'd appreciate it if you could give very brief opinions on the following pitchers, and maybe even letter grades if that's possible. (or at least a ranking) Thanks.

Jon Niese
Jamie Richmond
Adam Ottavino
Tyler Robertson
Daniel Cortes

by GregJP on Aug 16, 2025 9:14 AM EDT 0 recs

Niese: disappointing this year, still interesting long-term.
Richmond: great command, but not quite a breakthrough this year. Maybe next year.
Ottavino: looks very good to me.
Robertson: looks very good to me.
Cortes: I am somewhat skeptical about him.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Mets

whats your thoughts on St.lucie 1B Nick Evans and while on Evans do you believe he has taken over Carp in the depth chart?

by Maine Man on Aug 16, 2025 9:17 AM EDT 0 recs

evans

He's made major progress this year, much improved approach at the plate. Better than Carp? Maybe. Have to assess that in the book.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

biggest leaps

which prospects, not in your top 50 pitchers and top 50 hitters list at the beginning of the season have made the biggest leap in your mind (excluding '07 draftees, of course)

by Curtis Pride on Aug 16, 2025 9:18 AM EDT 0 recs

question

way too big a question for this kind of format. this would be a good subject for a major blogpost.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

crap

I meant one pitcher and one hitter. But didn't write it properly.

I suck.

by Curtis Pride on Aug 17, 2025 2:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not so much

You gave John an idea for a major blog post. Maybe you didn't get an answer today, but you may very well get a much longer, more in depth answer in the future. Not such a bad deal...

"People think it must be fun to be a super genious, but they don't know how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world." - Calvin

by RVachon on Aug 17, 2025 3:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'll hold my breath

by Curtis Pride on Aug 17, 2025 3:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

Neil Walker in 2008

In Pittsburgh:

AB
BA
HR
RBI

by 3Com Park on Aug 16, 2025 9:23 AM EDT 0 recs

walker

324 ab
.259 BA
6 HR
33 RBI

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

Omar Poveda SP, TEX

Do you think his performance this year is real, basically, is he really a good prospect?

by Darce on Aug 16, 2025 9:24 AM EDT 0 recs

poveda

I'd say mostly for real but fly ball tendencies stand out and could be a problem when he hits double-a next year. he's a grade b right now.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

Vermont Starting Rotation

How would rank the starting pitchers for the Nationals in Vermont (Adrian Alaniz, Jordan Zimmermann, Colton Willems, Glenn Gibson, and Hassan Pena)?

by NFA Brian on Aug 16, 2025 9:25 AM EDT 0 recs

rotation

I don't have enough current scouting information about Pena to answer this question right now. Willems is probably the best long-term prospect in the group based on what I know. Another question that would be worthy of a big blog post.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Thanks John

.

by NFA Brian on Aug 17, 2025 2:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

Projected Roster

Who are the best prospects in the minors at each position and why?

C
1B
2B
SS
3B
RF
CF
LF
SP
RP

by Locke000 on Aug 16, 2025 9:29 AM EDT 0 recs

question

It would take an hour to answer this question properly. This is another thing that would be a good blog post topic, but not for an AQA thread.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Cop Out ;)

Thanks anyway :)

by Locke000 on Aug 17, 2025 3:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

mine

C: Clement
1b: Votto (unless you count Butler or Snyder)
2b: Antonelli
SS: Brignac
3B: Longoria
RF: Bruce
CF: Rasmus
LF: Snyder
SP: Kershaw
RP: Liz

by Curtis Pride on Aug 17, 2025 3:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

Appalachian League

Which players are you the most excited about (impact,ceiling) in the Appy league this year?

The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Aug 16, 2025 9:35 AM EDT 0 recs

question

Another question that would take an hour to research. Sorry guys, I do not have that kind of time. I will stick this on the "possible post" list.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

cool...

Next time I'll be more specific... I was mostly interested in E-Town hitters.

The squirrels have become organized...and they're angry!

by maxisagod on Aug 17, 2025 6:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Guys that didn't sign

What player(s) drafted this year will teams regret not signing for this draft?

#269

by mrmetaa on Aug 16, 2025 9:36 AM EDT 0 recs

draft

Hmm....all the really important guys signed. The Phillies might regret not making a bigger push for Brandon Workman in the third round. We will see how he does for the University of Texas.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

Desmond Jennings

Is he a top 100 prospect? What is his upside. Will he add power? With all the Tampa outfielders, is a position switch possible, or is he a true CF?
JAS

by jasvlm on Aug 16, 2025 9:44 AM EDT 0 recs

jennings

he is a top 100 prospect and MAYBE a top 50. Impressive speed, good discipline, has power potential although it will take time to manifest. I really like him.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

not in the book

How about a player (or two) not in your book that have caught your attention this year (excluding '07 draftees)?

Thanks.

by FI2 on Aug 16, 2025 9:47 AM EDT 0 recs

players

Henry Alberto Rodriguez, RHP, Oakland Athletics. Can hit 100 MPH and made big progress with command this year.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

Danny Richar

Your thoughts on him? Is he what he showed this year in the minors or the disappointment he was every other year?

by shaftr on Aug 16, 2025 9:50 AM EDT 0 recs

richar

I'm slowly warming up to him. I think he's a .260-.280 hitter with enough other contributions to be useful but not a star.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

Aaron Bates

Has tore the cover off the ball this year in HiA ball and has been promoted to AA. He is 23 years old, so he was a little old for the league, but his numbers can't be ignored. What kind of a grade would you give him at this point?

by marchmadness on Aug 16, 2025 9:51 AM EDT 0 recs

bates

Gotta watch out for Lancaster/Cal League stat inflation, but I do like Bates. Would rate him as a Grade B/B- right now.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 3:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

Andy Marte

Still hasn't turned 24, but a .707 OPS in nearly 300 AAA at bats this year doesn't have me enthused. Any reason for optimism?

This was the community projection back in January: 137 games, 495 at-bats, 129 hits, .260, 29 doubles, 2 triples, 21 homers, 72 RBI, 51 walks, 111 strikeouts, 2 steals

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." -Red Barber

by e 6 on Aug 16, 2025 9:52 AM EDT 0 recs

marte

I'm getting down on Marte. There is something wrong here and I don't know what it is, and his status is slipping. At this point we have to cut expectations drastically I fear.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 3:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

thanks john. now here;s a Q for the community

andy marte vs. eric duncan:

Marte (born 10/83): .244/.284/.420, 13 HR, 319 PA
Duncan (born 12/84): 235/.320/.378, 10 HR, 390 PA

JUSTIN MASTERSON: EXPOSED

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Aug 17, 2025 3:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

Marte vs Duncan

Marte is a failed prospect who can field but has huge holes is his batting stroke.

Duncan is younger but has less upside. Looks over his head and probably has less of a future than Marte. Duncan as the ARod replacement would cause great joy in Boston.

by sdtribefan on Aug 18, 2025 7:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

draft slotting

It seems teams blinked yesterday. Will the draft slotting system continue to fall apart, or is this a hiccup?

by rlwhite on Aug 16, 2025 10:10 AM EDT 0 recs

slotting

I think the whole slotting thing is stupid. I doubt they will drop the idea, but expect teams to ignore it as necessary.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 3:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Kyle Blanks

Is he going to be the next Ryan Howard?

by bunner19 on Aug 16, 2025 10:10 AM EDT 0 recs

blanks

No. He should be a good hitter but not Howard quality.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 3:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Johnny Cueto

What kind of grade would you give Cueto now that he's starting to prove it at higher levels?

by joerote on Aug 16, 2025 10:13 AM EDT 0 recs

cueto

B+ right now. Maybe B+/A-.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 3:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

Slotting

Is slotting bad for the game, should they just go with a free market on draft picks and let economics regulate it?

by Kanst42 on Aug 16, 2025 10:23 AM EDT 0 recs

economics

Well....I believe in a mixed economy, basically free market capitalism but with a solid government 'safety net' for the weaker members of society. History shows that private charity is NOT enough to help the weak, especially in the down part of the business cycle. But at the same time, if you have too high a level of taxation, you choke off growth. You have to find the "sweet spot" between too much government interfernce in the market, and not enough.

In baseball terms I think revenue sharing along the current lines is enough. I don't think we need a hard salary cap, and I think draft slotting is a stupid idea. I would drop draft bonus slotting, but I would stick with the current compensation for teams that aren't able to sign picks.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 3:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

What's your take on the injuried NY Mets

prospects ie. Gomez, Martinez, Guerra and where does Evans rank now as a prospect.

by Bravesin07 on Aug 16, 2025 10:25 AM EDT 0 recs

mets

never that impressed with Gomez. Martinez...eh, we need to see if he can stay healthy and develop some power, too early to know. Guerra has been pushed way too hard in my opinion. Evans is very good as I've already posted.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 3:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

thanks

I still see Gomez as a Lofton or Crawford type with a slim chance to be Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rios two guys you weren't that high on before last year.

by Bravesin07 on Aug 17, 2025 7:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Reid Brignac:

Chinks in the armor or just an "off" year ... his BABIP is really low, but is that all it is? Kind of a minor league version of Stephen Drew in '07?

Paul Householder, Gary Redus, Tommy Lawless, Duane Walker ... prospects rawk!

by design28 on Aug 16, 2025 10:27 AM EDT 0 recs

brignac

Bad luck and nagging injuries. I still think he's a top prospect although his grade will be cut slightly.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 3:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

THANK YOU, JOHN

Thanks for the time and effort you give us here ... you rock the casbah!

Paul Householder, Gary Redus, Tommy Lawless, Duane Walker ... prospects rawk!

by design28 on Aug 20, 2025 1:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

Brent Lillibridge

You gave Brent Lillibridge a B in the Pirates preseason ranking. What sort of grade would you give him now, and where do you think he fits in terms of the Braves prospect rankings?

by abravesfan on Aug 16, 2025 10:28 AM EDT 0 recs

Lill

Still a Grade B. Haven't ranked the Braves system in awhile, although he'd be up there pretty high especially after the trades.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 3:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

3 prospects

hey john, could you please rank the following 3 prospects in terms of long term value:

fred lewis
brandon jones
steven pearce

if you could include what you expect to be an average mlb year for them, or maybe a comp to a current major leaguer, that would be great. thanks!

by dacanes on Aug 16, 2025 10:29 AM EDT 0 recs

prospects

Jones
Pearce
Lewis

Jones is riskier than Pearce but has higher upside.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 3:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

Edwin Jackson

What's your take? His stats are still godawful, but he's at least been doing better the last month or two. You suggested earlier that he be moved to the pen; would you still suggest that? I noticed his BABIP in '06 and '07 was .346 and (so far) .352. Do you think this indicates "AAAA pitcher" status/a lack of major-league stuff, or is it bad luck that's due to straighten out eventually?

and boom goes the dynamite.

by Mean Dean on Aug 16, 2025 10:31 AM EDT 0 recs

jackson

Getting very down on Edwin. He's got the stuff but looks like a mess mechanically and has never recovered from the bad way the Dodgers handled him. As long as he throws hard he can recover, but will he? Dunno.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 3:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hypothetical Prospects

Two 20 yo RHP's in Low A ball:

Pitcher 1: Main pitch is mid 90's 4 seam FB with a decent slider and raw changeup. K/9= 9, BB/9 4. GO/AO=0.80. ERA 2.60.

Pitcher 2: Main pitch is low 90's two seamer. Decent slider and raw changeup. K/9= 7, BB/9= 2. GO/AO= 2. ERA= 2.60.

Which pitcher is the better prospect?

by DrBGiantsfan on Aug 16, 2025 10:34 AM EDT 0 recs

hmmmmmmm

I'm assuming that park/league factors are the same. Would want to know more about their makeup, intelligence, work ethic, and physical projectability. Based SOLELY on the data presented I would rather have pitcher 2.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 4:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

pitcher A to relieve

pitcher B to start

or at least that would be the way i'd handle it.

JUSTIN MASTERSON: EXPOSED

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Aug 17, 2025 4:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

pitcher B has a much greater margin for error

if you could put a good defensive infield behind him, he'd have a chance to put up some excellent WHIPs, and eat a lot of innings.

pitcher A would seem to be the prototypical young RHP, which, considering the success rate for pitchers of that ilk, is not a good thing. there doesn't appear to be anything about pitcher A that seperates him from any other AAAA pitcher, but pitcher B has a BB rate and a GB% to fall back on.

JUSTIN MASTERSON: EXPOSED

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Aug 17, 2025 4:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Plate discipline and batting average

I'm bewildered that Ryan Braun is still hitting .350-something. He doesn't have a 3:5 BB:K ratio now, and he didn't show that sort of plate discipline or strike zone judgment in the minors, either.

Is there a type of hitter who can actually hit for a high average for several seasons with less than a 3:5 BB:K ratio, and what separates this sort of player from the more common erratic, hot-and-cold, streaky hitters like Geoff Jenkins?

by Stat Ninja on Aug 16, 2025 10:35 AM EDT 0 recs

dunno

Short answer: I don't know, lol.

Braun is remarkable. He's had good luck and I still think he's more of a .280-.300 hitter, with .320-.330 in his peak years, and that the league will catch up with him eventually. Some guys just have the bat speed to get away with sloppy discipline though, but it is rare.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 4:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

Better prospect

Blake Beavan or Michael Main?

by FirebatM3 on Aug 16, 2025 10:36 AM EDT 0 recs

too early

way too early to tell. initial instinct is Main.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 4:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

bad year

can you name 1 top pitching and 1 hitting prospect who are having bad years (whether due to injury or just under-performance), but who you expect will bounce back and be top prospects again 12 months from now?

by jpahk on Aug 16, 2025 10:37 AM EDT 0 recs

hm

Brignac.

On the pitchers I would not hazard a guess at this point.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 4:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Biggest Haul fromDraft

Who do you think were the top 5 teams in the draft. Who had the biggest haul and what late round pick(10th round or later) has the best pottential to be a star.

by jbg3004 on Aug 16, 2025 10:37 AM EDT 0 recs

blog post

I will turn this into a blog post.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 4:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Angel Villalona

Still not 17, and doing reasonably well for a 16 year old in pro ball, but he's not tearing up the AZL by any stretch of the imagination.

When he signed, he said he hoped to be the Giants starting 3B by the time he was 18.

Given that the Giants are going to be putrid when Barry leaves, SF has almost no hitting prospects, but that he hasn't been a world-beater yet, when do you think Villalona will make his major league debut?

by Galt on Aug 16, 2025 10:47 AM EDT 0 recs

villalona

At this rate....2012, about five months before the Mayan calender turns over in December and the world as we know it changes.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 4:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Brian Horwitz

What are your thoughts on this guy since he continues to hit well over .300 everywhere he goes?

by joemorgansaysdeadredtoomuch on Aug 16, 2025 10:47 AM EDT 0 recs

horwitz

.270-.285 hitter in the majors, but without much power. Don't see him as a starter for a good team.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 4:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Chin Lung Hu

For real? how is he going to perform if he reach the bigs in the next yaer or two?

by RollingWave on Aug 16, 2025 10:49 AM EDT 0 recs

Hu

I think he is for real, yes. I think he's a .270-.280 hitter with a lot of doubles at the major league level, to go with his glovework.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 4:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

Michael Bowden

John, Bowden's not getting the attention Buchholz is getting, but can you riff on Michael a bit? How has your opinion of him changed (if at all) after this season's performance?

by rick on Aug 16, 2025 10:53 AM EDT 0 recs

bowden

I like Bowden still. People overreacted to his early struggles in Double-A. He's not Roy Oswalt, but he can be Jeff Suppan, and there is something to be said for an ability to eat innings as Suppan can do.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 4:07 PM EDT up 0 recs