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Community Projection Reviews

Jeremy Sowers

Projection: 30 starts, 186 innings, 95 runs, 86 earned, 4.13 ERA, 13-10, 106/50 K/BB, 192 hits, 22 homers, 2 CG, 1 shutout

Reality: 13 starts, 67.1 innings, 49 runs, 48 earned, 6.41 ERA, 1-6, 24/21 K/BB, 84 hits, 10 homers, 0 CG, 0 shutout

Comparison: As with the CB, you guys assumed that Sowers' K/IP rate would improve. It didn't and the league caught up with him.

Dan Uggla

Projection; 148 games, 567 at-bats, 84 runs, 153 hits, .270, 29 doubles, 3 triples, 20 homers, 78 RBI, 48 walks, 114 strikeouts, 8 steals, 5 caught.

Results: 159 games, 632 at-bats, 113 runs, 155 hits, .245, 49 doubles, 3 triples, 31 homers, 88 RBI, 68 walks, 167 strikeouts, 2 steals, 1 caught.

Comparison: As with the Crystal Ball, Uggla had a lower batting average than anticipated but produced more isolated power.

Alex Gordon

Projection: 150 games, 550 at-bats, 87 runs, 160 hits, .290, 34 doubles, 3 triples, 24 homers, 90 RBI, 66 walks, 113 strikeouts, 13 steals, 4 caught, Rookie of the Year.

Reality: 151 games, 543 at-bats, 60 runs, 134 hits, .247, 36 doubles, 4 triples, 15 homers, 60 RBI, 41 walks, 137 strikeouts, 14 steals, 4 caught, will not be Rookie of the Year.

Comparison: Almost exactly right on steals, but as with the Crystal Ball Gordon's plate discipline was worse than anticipated and dragged him down somewhat. I still believe in him long-term.

John Danks

Projection: 20 games, 19 starts, 112.2 innings, 68 runs, 63 earned, 5.18, 7-8, 90/46 K/BB, 119 hits, 17 homers, 1 CG, 0 shutouts

Reality: 26 games, 26 starts, 139 innings, 92 runs, 85 earned, 5.50, 6-13,109/54 K/BB, 160 hits, 28 homers, 0 CG, 0 shutouts

Comparison: Pro-rated for 139 innings, the projection called for a 111/57 K/BB and 147 hits. You guys were dead-on about the K/BB ratio. The main difference is that he was more hittable than the community anticipated, resulting in a somewhat higher ERA.