2007 New York Mets Prospects
2007 New York Mets Prospects
- Fernando Martinez, OF, A- (tools and youth, just needs refinement)
- Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Grade A- (I think the breaking pitch problem is overblown. He had a good one in college and I think he'll find it again. I am sticking with my guns on this one)
- Phil Humber, RHP, B+ (Many prefer him over Pelfrey, I like both)
- Carlos Gomez, OF, B (great tools, but I'm not sure about his power)
- Jon Niese, LHP, B- (projectable lefty is a personal favorite)
- Deolis Guerra, RHP, B- (live arm, a long way away)
- Kevin Mulvey, RHP, B- (accidently left off first list)
- Joe Smith, RHP, B- (impressive reliever could advance fast)
- Mike Carp, 1B, B- (developing power bat to watch)
- Alay Soler, RHP, C+ (Cuban defector looks better as a reliever to me than a starter)
- Adam Bostick, LHP, C+ (acquired from the Marlins, good breaking ball)
- Josh Stinson, RHP, C+ (interesting arm but another guy who will need time)
- Sean Henry, OF, C+ (toolsy, skills may be developing)
- Mike Devany, RHP, C (looks like a utility pitcher to me)
- Nick Evans, 3B, C (making slow progress)
- Shawn Bowman, 3B, C (back injuries two years in a row)
- Michel Abreu, 1B, C (good stats, but how old is he? 26? 31? 52?)
- Stephen Holmes, RHP, C (intriguing arm from '06 draft)
- Tobi Stoner, RHP, C (control artist dominated New York-Penn League)
- Brandon Nall, RHP, C (good numbers but old for the level)
- Dustin Martin, OF, C (hit .315 in the NY-P but strikes out a lot)
The Mets In One Sentence: This system has quality at the top, but the talent level bottoms out very fast.
For some reason, Mets fans tend to get very defensive about their farm system, likely a form of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder from trades over the last few years. Face it guys: this system has three strong prospects at the top, four or five more who are interesting but have question marks, then a whole bunch of guys who are only marginal right now. This isn't an insult; there are lots of systems like this around, and the Mets are not the worst. I just don't understand why people get so upset about it. The Mets have problems, sure, but at least you are not rooting for the Minions of Evil like Yankees fans.
ALL GRADES ARE PRELIMINARY. If you hate a grade, feel free to make a case for me to change it, though remember that cases phrased respectfully using logic and facts are more likely to be viewed positively than those featuring insults and invective.
There is a lot of slack in the B-/C+/C range and players may move up and down depending on how my thinking progresses. Feel free to make comments, point out sleepers I may have missed, etc. Note that there is only a limited amount of space in the book, and the max I can do is 35-36 players per team.
And, as always, there is the helpful reminder to Buy My Book, which will lay out reports for all these guys (and more) in detail.
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Comments
good God...
Harper isn't a "prospect," but as a "too old for the league but can still really hit" type in the grand tradition of Graham Koonce and his ilk, he should probably rank above at least some of these schmendricks.
by Mean Dean on Dec 20, 2025 6:36 PM EST 0 recs
mr. met
by wily mo on
Dec 21, 2025 12:13 AM EST
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Hey, hey...
Honestly, as goofy as Mr. Met really is, every Mets fan I know just loves him, and is very protective of him. Our love for Mr. Met is kind of disturbing, actually.
by nyr2k2 on
Dec 21, 2025 10:29 PM EST
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mr met
by robcast23 on
Dec 22, 2025 1:00 AM EST
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Joe Smith
One pitch, it's a sick pitch, but it's still just one pitch- but could make it as a roogie even if he fails to develop
by Johnny Ruin on Dec 20, 2025 6:38 PM EST 0 recs
Not sure
by nyr2k2 on
Dec 21, 2025 10:32 PM EST
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not sure either
it could be that his slider and sinker look indishtinguishable on TV....
by Johnny Ruin on
Dec 22, 2025 2:52 PM EST
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Finally!
Personally, I'm defensive about the Mets system because I fear the temptation to raid the farm is too great. Our history with respects to that is extremely poor. History forms us, and having Steve Phillips reign over the farm for many years would lead to that effect in any organization's fans.
I agree that the farm is top heavy, but the nice thing is that Carp, Guerra, and Niese have time to grow. Meanwhile, the Big 4 are exciting, no?
I'm happy with the farm in its current state, but I do hope that the organization can continue coming up with its Pelfreys and Gomezes.
by Raskolnikov on Dec 20, 2025 6:38 PM EST 0 recs
Guerra
I'd be surprised if he doesn't add velocity in the next year or two, but he lived off the changeup all last year.
by jhelfgott on Dec 20, 2025 6:47 PM EST 0 recs
An 18 year old
by slurve on
Dec 20, 2025 7:52 PM EST
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I'm excited about Guerra too
Guerra and Fernando are two absolute gems.
by Raskolnikov on
Dec 20, 2025 8:03 PM EST
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Success
I'm not saying he won't get there, but it seems weird to classify a pitcher with Guerra's repertoire as a "live arm."
by jhelfgott on
Dec 21, 2025 1:03 AM EST
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re:
The phrase "live arm" is so ambiguous that I consider it almost devoid of meaning.
by jeck on
Dec 21, 2025 1:44 AM EST
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Clippard mode
by slurve on
Dec 21, 2025 7:29 AM EST
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yeah come on
by robcast23 on
Dec 21, 2025 1:26 PM EST
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...having "life" on the fastball is...
...the thing that really makes the ball move is not the actual velocity, but rather the rotations/second it spins...though since velocity and rotations/second usually go hand-in-hand (no pun intended!) since being delivered by the same arm...but it is possible to have a guy with a live fastball at 90 mph but not so common...for instance, in theory, soft throwing pitchers with long fingers could in theory get that going...
...overall, terms like "live arm" or a fastball with "life" have been so abused that it does lose meaning among baseball fans...but, among scouts and players, it still means a pretty specific thing...
by basemonkey on
Dec 24, 2025 6:52 PM EST
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Guerra
I'm a Mets fan, and I'm extremely critical of the Mets system. Guerra is an extremely projectable prospect with tons of upside, and one not to be taken lightly.
by nyr2k2 on
Dec 21, 2025 2:55 PM EST
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The problem
by wrightHOF on
Dec 21, 2025 6:11 PM EST
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Mid-90s?
by Raskolnikov on
Dec 21, 2025 7:07 PM EST
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I'd actually....
Many of the most durable, long lasting pitchers of all time (even with a mediocre fastball) talk about constantly throwing fastballs during their childhood and times in the minors. Nolan Ryan and Curt Schilling are a couple guys who have credited throwing alot more fastballs than offspeed pitches at a young age has helped their longevity. Billy Wagner is another guy who just threw constantly with a fastball grip (he used to throw a ball around and run after it as a kid) and never picked up a real breaking pitch til he reached the majors.
I LOVE the fact that his go-to off speed pitch is a changeup though. It's basically a fastball with a different grip. I realize baseball has changed and offspeed pitches are a must have, but the best way to keep an arm healthy and build strength while its still young is to throw ALOT of fastballs. Also throwing alot on the side, again not with alot of breaking pitches and not on a mound is nice.
by SenorGato88 on
Dec 21, 2025 9:03 PM EST
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Nice work
by alexd on Dec 20, 2025 6:47 PM EST 0 recs
agree about Mulvey
I'm excited about Pena. Has there ever been so much anticipation about someone who no one has seen play yet? And now the pressure is much higher with us losing Flores. [Bangs head]
by Raskolnikov on
Dec 20, 2025 6:53 PM EST
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Pena, etc.
And I do get the feeling that the Nats hide Flores on their 25 for the whole season. They're going to be terrible anyway, why not just snag and keep a solid prospect for basically nothing? Manny Acta's first strike as manager...grrr.
by alexd on
Dec 20, 2025 6:57 PM EST
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agreed
drews
uptons
weavers
molinas
guerreros (what the hell ever happened to wilton?)
alomars
and i'm sure there are more i can't remember
by robcast23 on
Dec 21, 2025 1:36 PM EST
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Brothers
But I think you'd take Jason over Jeremy Giambi; David over Mike Bell; Bret over Aaron Boone; Ken over Clete Boyer; Tom over Mike Glavine; Brian over Marcus Giles; Tony over Chris Gwynn; Cal over Billy Ripken.
I won't weigh in on such notables as the Crespos, Manzanillos, or Iorgs.
Source: BaseballAlmanac.com -- Brothers in Baseball, A-J; Brothers in Baseball, J-Z
by FlipYrWhig on
Dec 21, 2025 4:28 PM EST
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Smith
BTW, where's Kevin Mulvey? Not enough data -- that sort of thing?
by Emad on Dec 20, 2025 6:51 PM EST 0 recs
bradford
IMO the only relievers who deserve multi-year contracts are shutdown closers (a la b.wags)...obviously the orioles do not agree...
by robcast23 on
Dec 21, 2025 1:43 PM EST
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Maat
by alexd on Dec 20, 2025 6:58 PM EST 0 recs
Oh yeah
by Raskolnikov on
Dec 20, 2025 7:00 PM EST
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No idea
by alexd on
Dec 20, 2025 7:01 PM EST
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Maat
by nyr2k2 on
Dec 21, 2025 2:57 PM EST
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Maat
I'm excited about Maat. I hope he gets some spring training ABs.
by Raskolnikov on
Dec 21, 2025 3:14 PM EST
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Respectable
Only real admission - Mulvey... he's got to be more of a prospect than some of the other 2006 pitchers the Mets drafted.
by thudean on Dec 20, 2025 7:05 PM EST 0 recs
defense
by wily mo on
Dec 20, 2025 7:10 PM EST
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well
not saying he doesn't have the right because its his site but it certainly caught me by surprise and as a big mets prospect supporter i felt a bit slighted
by robcast23 on
Dec 21, 2025 1:48 PM EST
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East Coast
In person, it's fun battling with strangers over your sports teams. On the intarweb, it gets a little old. Amusing nonetheless.
by nyr2k2 on
Dec 21, 2025 3:02 PM EST
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hmm
by robcast23 on
Dec 21, 2025 4:12 PM EST
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Outside of the names already mentioned
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Jacob-Ruckle.shtml
by mtk52983 on Dec 20, 2025 7:07 PM EST 0 recs
re: ruckle
by Raskolnikov on
Dec 20, 2025 7:39 PM EST
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that is true
by mtk52983 on
Dec 20, 2025 8:30 PM EST
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re: ruckle
I'm guessing that he'll start in St. Lucie.
by Raskolnikov on
Dec 20, 2025 8:41 PM EST
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re:demotions
It's a little disingenuous, but the Wilpons own the Cyclones and they like to see them do well since they're so close, I suppose.
by kid dynamite on
Dec 22, 2025 12:24 AM EST
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Yeah, but don't demote the young prospects
And I don't mind if the Mets demote young non-prospects. This might be their only chance at minor league glory.
But let's not screw with the legit prospects. Ruckle should be at a level of competition that challenges him, not blowing away rookies getting their first taste of professional ball. It makes it impossible to gauge - both for the organization and for outsiders - how much progress Ruckle has made.
by Raskolnikov on
Dec 22, 2025 1:05 AM EST
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Ruckle's delivery...
i remember being amazed at how effective he pitched one game i saw with the herky jerk motion he has.
by Dep on
Dec 20, 2025 8:42 PM EST
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Great Job John
by Dep on Dec 20, 2025 7:11 PM EST 0 recs
Humber
3 writers & daily updates on a wide range of baseball topics, including prospects.
by TheK on Dec 20, 2025 7:27 PM EST 0 recs
+1
by the pinstripes on
Dec 20, 2025 9:16 PM EST
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mulvey
by John Sickels on Dec 20, 2025 7:55 PM EST 0 recs
Carp
He's also great at getting HBP...lol.
Anyway, I guess complaining about the difference between B and B- is kind of nitpicking so I'll sign off now.
Keep an eye on him next year though, I expect in the offensively friendly environs of Binghampton, he might challenge for 300/400/500...at least if the adjustment period is not too long.
by BaseballBrain on Dec 20, 2025 9:32 PM EST 0 recs
I really like Carp
by toonsterwu on
Dec 20, 2025 11:22 PM EST
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carp
both 6'2" 200, both play first, both bat left but throw right, both have that smooth lefty stroke...and their #'s at similar levels, ages, etc. are VERY similar
i like the future for mike carp
by robcast23 on
Dec 21, 2025 1:58 PM EST
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Maybe....except
by BaseballBrain on
Dec 21, 2025 2:12 PM EST
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yeah
by robcast23 on
Dec 21, 2025 4:13 PM EST
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tobi stoner
by wily mo on Dec 20, 2025 9:42 PM EST 0 recs
Completely off-topic: spammer
Thanks, keep up the great work.
P.S. go mets.
by e 6 on Dec 20, 2025 10:43 PM EST 0 recs
banned
by John Sickels on
Dec 20, 2025 11:18 PM EST
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How about Matt Durkin?
I think he's supposed to be healthy in 2007--he could be a sleeper at this point, at least for the "others" list.
Anderson Garcia is another good live arm, though probably only will be a relief pitcher.
18-21 does look very weak to me.
I thought Steven Holmes returned his signing bonus and decided to go to med school or something. I think I got that from a message board somewhere, so I don't know if it's accurate.
And I wonder what the scouting is on Dustin Martin. He was a 26th rounder, and shortly after he signed, before the season started in Brooklyn, they were touting him as one of the guys who would carry the offense there. I suspect he's an organizational guy; a guy without the talent to hit at higher levels but who was polished enough to help out the offense at that level.
by acerimusdux on Dec 20, 2025 11:06 PM EST 0 recs
Holmes
by Peter North on Dec 20, 2025 11:12 PM EST 0 recs
If Milledge qualified...
by ISC on Dec 20, 2025 11:19 PM EST 0 recs
I think the A-s are getting easier to get...
by alskor on Dec 20, 2025 11:36 PM EST 0 recs
Alas
by avehoward on
Dec 20, 2025 11:44 PM EST
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I think...
I know Im higher on him than most, but I really think that he is a special hitter who could be an A next year if he keeps improving.
by grozzy on
Dec 21, 2025 2:39 AM EST
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OFs who have gotten an A- so far
Cameron Maybin
Jay Bruce
Adam Lind
Travis Snyder
Jose Tabata
Billy Butler
Does Martinez really belong with these guys? Not to me... Which one would you take Martinez over? I pick him dead last out of these guys. He fits much better with the B+ guys with upside, if you ask me...
by alskor on
Dec 21, 2025 7:41 AM EST
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Just my
by tbach81 on
Dec 21, 2025 8:48 AM EST
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My opinion on it...
by beastball on
Dec 21, 2025 8:50 AM EST
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I would take Martinez over
Again I am higher on FMart than most.
Also remember, Butler was given an A- only due to his defense, he easily has an A bat. Possibly the best bat in the minors.
by grozzy on
Dec 21, 2025 9:25 AM EST
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all A- but i'd say
Bruce
Martinez
Tabata
Maybin
Lind
Snyder
The one guy i guess people would be mad about is Maybin. I'm not as high as everyone on him. Sure maybe he is a top prospect but i wouldn't put him near the top ten after last season. But thats just me.
by Metty5 on
Dec 21, 2025 11:27 AM EST
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and Pence?
i don't see F-Mart being given an A- as at all controversial. certainly according to our 'Community Prospect' rankings, he's right with (and above) the guys on that list.
by scooter on
Dec 21, 2025 12:54 PM EST
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Flores
by Raskolnikov on Dec 21, 2025 1:22 AM EST 0 recs
Stephen Holmes
by lanceawillis on Dec 21, 2025 12:26 PM EST 0 recs
Rating Martinez over Gomez is criminal
by PooNani on Dec 21, 2025 1:38 PM EST 0 recs
also
by PooNani on
Dec 21, 2025 1:44 PM EST
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ok
by robcast23 on
Dec 21, 2025 2:03 PM EST
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Read my above post
by nyr2k2 on
Dec 21, 2025 3:08 PM EST
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