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Crystal Ball: Mark Teixeira

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Per request of Jamey Newberg from the excellent website, a Crystal Ball for Rangers slugger Mark Teixeira.

Teixeira will have a normal development curve, his power production gradually increasing into his early 30s, but with a concurrent gradual decline in batting average most seasons and a fade in overall productivity as his career progresses. I threw in a couple of injury seasons, and gradual loss of playing time due to nagging injuries, age, etc. Parallels would include guys like Fred McGriff or Willie McCovey.
This is something of a best-case scenario, as many hitters similar to Teixeira fade more quickly than what is shown here, the "old player skill" effect. I originally ran this out through age 39, and had Teixeira at 587 career homers. I figured if he got that close that he'd play one more year to shoot for 600, so I added an age-40 season.
I am assuming that league-context offense shows a decline from the elevated offensive levels of the late 90s. . .the league leaders during this era will be in the upper 40s or lower 50s in homers each year.