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Jeff Francis Results

Jeff Francis Results

G GS IP W L K BB H HR ERA
Community 29 29 175 10 10 151 53 180 26 4.61
Forecaster ------- 189 11 10 188 59 -------- 4.68
Prospectus 19 18 107 ----- 90 38 114 18 5.04
Prospectus-29 29 29 172 ----- 145 61 183 29 5.04
ZIPS BTT 29 29 170 13 10 173 56 167 23 4.18

As I was compiling the Community results, my thinking was that people were way too optimistic and were underrating the Coors Effect. But interestingly, the Community projection was very close to Shandler's Forecaster and considerably more pessimistic than ZIPS.

I still think the Community H/IP is too optimistic and that his ERA will be closer to 5.00 than the mid-4.00s; I expect numbers closer to what Baseball Prospectus shows. But even the BP component stats aren't too far off from the Community. For ease of comparison, I listed "Prospectus-29" line, with the Prospectus numbers projected out to 29 starts/170-175 innings, to make quick visual comparisons easier.