Brief Refresher on the FaBIO Methodology
For each rating, the number represents the expected percentage of conference starters (or relievers, if a reliever) that the pitcher stood to beat on the parameter. 97 amounts to plus plus (2 standard deviations above conference-average), 84 is plus, 50 is average, 16 is minus, and 3 is minus minus. The Overall Rating is also split to show how the pitcher performed against opposite-handed batters (OHB) and against same-handed batters (SHB).
.
Top Performing (per FABIO) 2017 NCAA Starters who are Back for a 2018 Collegiate Season
These will be presented in order from highest to lowest Overall Rating, for pitchers who rated plus or better in 2017 while facing at least 15 batters per game.
Kent State's Joey Murray led the way while posting 100s Overall against both OHB and SHB. Murray's then-teammate Joe Vranesic (99 Overall) has since transferred to a junior college and is the lone pitcher in the tables that follow who is not back at his 2017 school. While Jared Janczak (98 Overall) does not light up the radar gun, one would be hard-pressed to find a better inducer of weak batted ball contact among 2018 draft-eligible NCAA SP.
Casey Mize (100 Overall Rating), Tyler Holton (99 Overall; who is already out with Tommy John surgery), Steven Gingery (97 Overall; who has met the same fate as Holton), and Shane McClanahan (95 Overall) are the four members of this first table to be ranked in the Baseball America (BA) preseason Top 200 2018 MLB Draft Prospects.
.
Kyle Bradish (94 Overall) and Logan Gilbert (92 Overall) are the two members of the second table to crack the pre-season BA Top 200 2018 MLB Draft Prospects list. Sean Mooney (94 Overall) makes for the first of 7 draft-ineligible sophomores ("SO") to make these tables.
.
Southpaws Kris Bubic (88 Overall) and Hogan Harris (86 Overall) are the lone pitchers from the final table to make the preseason BA 200.
.
NCAA Career FaBIO Ratings of Pitchers who were Ranked within the Top 50 of Baseball America's Preseason Top 200 2018 Draft Prospects
RHP Brady Singer, Florida, Junior
Singer will have to raise his K Rating at least a standard deviation as an '18 junior to merit a first-round draft selection come June. Else he projects as more of a strike-throwing groundballing back-of-rotation prospect.
.
LHP Shane McClanahan, South Florida, Redshirt Sophomore
McClanahan flashed big-time K stuff in his '17 debut after a '16 lost to Tommy John surgery. Ideally the CTL Rating and GB Rating would each move a few ticks closer to 50 in '18. Combined the '17 CTL/K/OFFB profile and lefthandedness conjures up recent FaBIO memories of A.J. Puk. Anticipate a sure first half of the first-round draft selection so long as McClanahan's arm health remains sound.
.
RHP Casey Mize, Auburn, Junior
Mize manifested a massive (nearly 3 standard-deviation) leap in K Rating from '16 to '17 and even pulled off that trick while raising his already elite GB Rating a few percentile points more. A healthy '18 Mize makes for another early-first-round lock.
.
RHP Jackson Kowar, Florida, Junior
Kowar went reverse-Mize in experiencing a nearly 3 standard-deviation drop in K Rating in '17 versus '16 while doubling his batters faced per game. It is tough to imagine a first-rounder materializing during the '18 NCAA season here.
.
LHP Ryan Rolison, Ole Miss, Sophomore
Rolison rated respectably as a '17 freshman SEC swingman but will have to ramp up his OHB results and improve the batted ball profile as an '18 starter to be drafted soon enough this June to lure him into the pro ranks. So far, so good in '18 ... he has whiffed a whopping 21 Winthrop/Tulane batters through 10 frames while allowing just 4 hits.
.
RHP Logan Gilbert, Stetson, Junior
Aside from Mize, Gilbert profiles as solidly all-around as any top NCAA draft pitching prospect does heading into '18 play.
.
LHP Tim Cate, Connecticut, Junior
On the heels of a fantastic freshman '16 campaign, Cate got pounded when '17 NCAA batters accomplished the still-difficult task of putting bat to ball. The '18 batted ball performance has to rise a lot to keep him in play as a first-round draft candidate.
.
LHP Konnor Pilkington, Mississippi State, Junior
Pilkington's pitching profile skewed more relievery in transitioning from freshman swingman to sophomore starter.
.
RHP Blaine Knight, Arkansas, Junior
Despite almost identical Overall Ratings and very similar Control Ratings, Knight's two NCAA seasons to date could not have been more different in out-generation approach (GB versus OFFB).
.
RHP Sean Hjelle, Kentucky, Junior
Hjelle was much more of a GBer and less of K artist in making the transition from '16 short reliever to '17 starter.
.
RHP Tristan Beck, Stanford, Junior (virtual Redshirt Sophomore)
Beck is back from a back injury that cost him his '17 sophomore season. He was about as good as one can expect a true freshman starter to be on the FaBIO scales in '16.
.
RHP Isaiah Campbell, Arkansas, Redshirt Sophomore
Biochemistry major Campbell managed to avoid Tommy John surgery after being shut down with an early '17 elbow injury. He has gotten off to a hot start in the K department as an '18 Arkansas starter through 2 appearances in which he has induced many more OFFB than GB.
.
LHP Steven Gingery, Texas Tech, Junior
Gingery projected to be another very solid all-around performer, and probably the top such pitching prospect among draft-eligible NCAA southpaws. But that was before his left elbow ulnar collateral ligament tore during his first '18 start.
.