clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Michael Conforto 2017: Projections vs. reality

New, 2 comments

Who made the best projection for Mets outfielder Michael Conforto?

MLB: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Moving ahead with our community projection reviews, we turn to New York Mets outfielder Michael Conforto. This projection was originally published March 22, 2017.

The community projection came out at 124 games, 385 at-bats, 51 runs, 101 hits, 25 doubles, 1 triple, 15 homers, 38 walks, 103 strikeouts, 2 steals, 2 caught, 4 HBP, slash line .263/.335/.452, OPS .787.

Conforto’s season ended early with a shoulder injury so the results are final. They come out at 109 games, 373 at-bats, 72 runs, 104 hits, 20 doubles, 1 triple, 27 homers, 57 walks, 113 strikeouts, 2 steals, 0 caught, 8 HBP, slash line .279/.385/.555, OPS .939.

The results from the objective projection systems:

Steamer: 79 games, 286 at-bats, 36 runs, 74 hits, 16 doubles, 1 triple, 12 homers, 29 walks, 66 strikeouts, 2 steals, 2 caught, 3 HBP, slash line .259/.330/.450, .780 OPS.

ZIPS: 148 games, 498 at-bats, 77 runs, 125 hits, 29 doubles, 3 triples, 24 homers, 50 walks, 124 strikeouts, 2 steals, 3 caught, 6 HBP, slash line .251/.324/.466 .790 OPS.

PECOTA: 296 at-bats, 40 runs, 75 hits, 16 doubles, 1 triple, 14 homers, 31 walks, 74 strikeouts, 2 steals, 1 caught, slash line .256/.332/.459, .791 OPS.

As you can see, while all the systems and the community felt Conforto would rebound from his difficult 2016 season, they failed to predict the magnitude of the improvement.