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Trea Turner 2017: Projections vs. reality

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Who won the prediction game?

Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals
Trea Turner
Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

The 2017 MLB season is almost over so it is time to review how things looked at the beginning of the season and compare them to what really happened, turning our attention right now to Trea Turner of the Washington Nationals.

The community projection was posted on March 24th. The community projected 152 games, 604 at-bats, 104 runs, 178 hits, 37 doubles, 8 triples, 16 homers, 48 walks, 128 strikeouts, 44 steals, 8 caught, 4 HBP, slash line .295/.351/.460, OPS .811.

With three games left in the season, the results are 95 games, 400 at-bats, 73 runs, 113 hits, 23 doubles, 6 triples, 11 homers, 28 walks, 77 strikeouts, 44 stolen bases, 8 caught, 4 HBP, slash line .283/.335/.453, OPS .787.

Obviously the community could not predict the wrist injury that limited Turner to 95 games, although it is quite fun that we nailed 44 steals, 8 caught, and 4 HBP exactly on the nose. We were close on slugging but too optimistic on batting average and OBP.

As for the sophisticated projection systems, Steamer posited .301/.347/.459, .806 OPS, ZIPS came out at .282/.331/.445, .776 OPS, and PECOTA with .284/.334/.457, .791 OPS.

Overall ZIPS and PECOTA had the best results with Turner, while the community and Steamer were too optimistic.