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Crystal Ball: Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox

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One possible future for the young White Sox right-hander

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Here's a Crystal Ball, by reader request, for Chicago White Sox pitching prospect Lucas Giolito.

The Crystal Ball is NOT a PREDICTION in the sense of me saying "this is how the guy will turn out." The idea is to generate discussion about a player by presenting one possible outcome for his career, based on what we currently know about him.

I try to make them logical, based on the outcomes of players who were similar at the same stage of their career. Sometimes a CB represents a maximal outcome, sometimes it is more of a middle ground.  You can pick out the imagined injuries, trades, and free agent signings. Teams are more or less random once you get past six years.

In the case of Lucas Giolito, this CB represents a "develops into a workhorse starter" outcome, which may ultimately be the direction he goes. A "develops into an ace" outcome (still quite plausible) would have more strikeouts and fewer walks and more consistent dominance. The outcome where he shreds his shoulder and is retired by age 30 isn't worth writing up.

Lucas Giolito
Year Team G GS IP H R ER W L ERA K BB SV Age K/9 BB/9 H/9
2016 Nationals 6 4 21.333 26 18 16 0 1 6.75 11 12 0 21 4.64 5.06 10.97
2017 White Sox 26 26 138 139 75 70 7 8 4.57 109 76 0 22 7.11 4.96 9.065
2018 White Sox 16 16 92 96 57 53 5 8 5.18 60 52 0 23 5.87 5.09 9.391
2019 White Sox 30 30 189 180 80 78 11 9 3.71 162 89 0 24 7.71 4.24 8.571
2020 White Sox 32 32 208 211 109 100 13 13 4.33 175 99 0 25 7.57 4.28 10.59
2021 White Sox 32 32 221 206 89 87 15 10 3.54 182 69 0 26 7.41 2.81 8.389
2022 White Sox 27 27 178 180 90 84 7 11 4.25 139 70 0 27 7.03 3.54 9.101
2023 Padres 33 33 201 189 89 80 16 9 3.58 171 89 0 28 7.66 3.99 8.463
2024 Padres 34 34 211 205 101 90 14 14 3.84 186 92 0 29 7.93 3.92 8.744
2025 Padres 23 23 129 134 79 73 5 11 5.09 97 62 0 30 6.77 4.33 9.349
2026 Padres 32 32 205 183 96 87 11 12 3.82 162 78 0 31 7.11 3.42 8.034
2027 Padres 29 29 199 179 80 72 14 7 3.26 161 80 0 32 7.28 3.62 8.095
2028 Padres 33 33 218 200 72 68 15 10 2.81 159 67 0 33 6.56 2.77 8.257
2029 Padres 29 29 178 159 78 73 14 10 3.69 132 70 0 34 6.67 3.54 8.039
2030 Padres 10 10 57 70 44 42 2 5 6.63 30 32 0 35 4.74 5.05 11.05
2031 Dodgers 15 15 81 80 59 44 4 6 4.89 42 42 0 36 4.67 4.67 8.889
Tigers 8 4 32 35 19 18 1 1 5.06 18 12 0 5.06 3.38 9.844
415 409 2558.33 2472 1235 1135 154 145 3.99 1996 1091 0 456 7.02 3.84 8.696