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Here's a Crystal Ball, by reader request, for St. Louis Cardinals catching prospect Carson Kelly.
The Crystal Ball is NOT a PREDICTION in the sense of me saying "this is how the guy will turn out." The idea is to generate discussion about a player by presenting one possible outcome for his career, based on what we currently know about him.
I try to make them logical, based on the outcomes of players who were similar at the same stage of their career. Sometimes a CB represents a maximal outcome, sometimes it is more of a middle ground. You can pick out the imagined injuries, trades, and free agent signings. Teams are more or less random once you get past six years.
In the case of Carson Kelly, I am assuming that he will spend most of 2017 in Triple-A, then will take over as the regular catcher based on his defense. There are some injury seasons in here, given how difficult catching can be on the body.
Carson Kelly | |||||||||||||||||
Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | BA | OBP | SLG | SB | HBP | Age |
2016 | Cardinals | 10 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.154 | 0.214 | 0.231 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
2017 | Cardinals | 16 | 59 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 0.237 | 0.297 | 0.356 | 0 | 1 | 22 |
2018 | Cardinals | 113 | 419 | 56 | 103 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 37 | 70 | 0.246 | 0.319 | 0.351 | 0 | 8 | 23 |
2019 | Cardinals | 107 | 392 | 39 | 87 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 42 | 36 | 78 | 0.222 | 0.302 | 0.332 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
2020 | Cardinals | 93 | 333 | 45 | 93 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 35 | 67 | 0.279 | 0.357 | 0.387 | 2 | 5 | 25 |
2021 | Cardinals | 141 | 509 | 62 | 129 | 23 | 3 | 11 | 64 | 48 | 88 | 0.253 | 0.329 | 0.375 | 1 | 9 | 26 |
2022 | Cardinals | 120 | 432 | 56 | 122 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 66 | 37 | 72 | 0.282 | 0.347 | 0.391 | 0 | 6 | 27 |
2023 | Cardinals | 87 | 316 | 36 | 91 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 71 | 30 | 56 | 0.288 | 0.368 | 0.475 | 0 | 10 | 28 |
2024 | Cardinals | 135 | 467 | 60 | 124 | 27 | 2 | 11 | 68 | 47 | 65 | 0.266 | 0.342 | 0.403 | 2 | 7 | 29 |
2025 | Cardinals | 136 | 476 | 48 | 122 | 23 | 0 | 6 | 58 | 39 | 70 | 0.256 | 0.321 | 0.342 | 0 | 6 | 30 |
2026 | Mariners | 114 | 387 | 39 | 102 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 49 | 65 | 0.264 | 0.357 | 0.367 | 1 | 7 | 31 |
2027 | Mariners | 51 | 134 | 14 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 24 | 0.246 | 0.327 | 0.366 | 0 | 2 | 32 |
2028 | Mariners | 132 | 411 | 50 | 103 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 49 | 37 | 59 | 0.251 | 0.322 | 0.358 | 4 | 6 | 33 |
2029 | Mariners | 141 | 465 | 48 | 106 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 43 | 39 | 76 | 0.228 | 0.297 | 0.297 | 1 | 7 | 34 |
2030 | Mariners | 45 | 113 | 13 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 9 | 12 | 0.257 | 0.328 | 0.434 | 1 | 3 | 35 |
Indians | 52 | 167 | 15 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 19 | 30 | 0.269 | 0.361 | 0.311 | 0 | 5 | ||
2031 | Indians | 67 | 174 | 14 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 25 | 0.218 | 0.288 | 0.282 | 0 | 2 | 36 |
2032 | Cubs | 40 | 86 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0.198 | 0.242 | 0.233 | 0 | 0 | 37 |
1600 | 5353 | 612 | 1360 | 252 | 11 | 101 | 672 | 500 | 882 | 0.254 | 0.329 | 0.362 | 13 | 94 |
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