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Crystal Ball: Carson Kelly, C, St. Louis Cardinals

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Here’s one possible future for Cardinals catcher Carson Kelly

By John Sickels
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Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Here's a Crystal Ball, by reader request, for St. Louis Cardinals catching prospect Carson Kelly.

The Crystal Ball is NOT a PREDICTION in the sense of me saying "this is how the guy will turn out." The idea is to generate discussion about a player by presenting one possible outcome for his career, based on what we currently know about him.

I try to make them logical, based on the outcomes of players who were similar at the same stage of their career. Sometimes a CB represents a maximal outcome, sometimes it is more of a middle ground.  You can pick out the imagined injuries, trades, and free agent signings. Teams are more or less random once you get past six years.

In the case of Carson Kelly, I am assuming that he will spend most of 2017 in Triple-A, then will take over as the regular catcher based on his defense. There are some injury seasons in here, given how difficult catching can be on the body.

Carson Kelly
Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K BA OBP SLG SB HBP Age
2016 Cardinals 10 13 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 2 0.154 0.214 0.231 0 1 21
2017 Cardinals 16 59 9 14 4 0 1 11 4 8 0.237 0.297 0.356 0 1 22
2018 Cardinals 113 419 56 103 19 2 7 43 37 70 0.246 0.319 0.351 0 8 23
2019 Cardinals 107 392 39 87 20 1 7 42 36 78 0.222 0.302 0.332 1 9 24
2020 Cardinals 93 333 45 93 18 0 6 39 35 67 0.279 0.357 0.387 2 5 25
2021 Cardinals 141 509 62 129 23 3 11 64 48 88 0.253 0.329 0.375 1 9 26
2022 Cardinals 120 432 56 122 18 1 9 66 37 72 0.282 0.347 0.391 0 6 27
2023 Cardinals 87 316 36 91 17 0 14 71 30 56 0.288 0.368 0.475 0 10 28
2024 Cardinals 135 467 60 124 27 2 11 68 47 65 0.266 0.342 0.403 2 7 29
2025 Cardinals 136 476 48 122 23 0 6 58 39 70 0.256 0.321 0.342 0 6 30
2026 Mariners 114 387 39 102 17 1 7 44 49 65 0.264 0.357 0.367 1 7 31
2027 Mariners 51 134 14 33 7 0 3 14 14 24 0.246 0.327 0.366 0 2 32
2028 Mariners 132 411 50 103 21 1 7 49 37 59 0.251 0.322 0.358 4 6 33
2029 Mariners 141 465 48 106 17 0 5 43 39 76 0.228 0.297 0.297 1 7 34
2030 Mariners 45 113 13 29 8 0 4 19 9 12 0.257 0.328 0.434 1 3 35
Indians 52 167 15 45 4 0 1 18 19 30 0.269 0.361 0.311 0 5
2031 Indians 67 174 14 38 5 0 2 17 15 25 0.218 0.288 0.282 0 2 36
2032 Cubs 40 86 7 17 3 0 0 5 5 15 0.198 0.242 0.233 0 0 37
1600 5353 612 1360 252 11 101 672 500 882 0.254 0.329 0.362 13 94

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