Minnesota Twins Top 20 Prospects for 2018
(this list was updated December 18, 2017 and again on February 26, 2018 and March 13, 2018)
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine.
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS
Grade A prospects are the elite. In theory, they have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Theoretically, most Grade A prospects develop into stars or at least major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for.
A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
1) Royce Lewis, SS, Grade A-/B+: Age 18; first-overall pick in 2017 draft had strong pro debut, hitting .279/.381/.407 in 204 at-bats with 18 steals, finishing the season well against older competition in Midwest League; refined hitter for his age, speed best tool at present with some 70-grades; has enough bat speed to develop considerable power (in my opinion) as he matures; arm is average but he’s otherwise a polished defender with a decent chance to stick at short; makeup first-class; may move up to straight A- grade. ETA late 2019.
2) Nick Gordon, SS-2B, Grade B+: Age 22; hit .270/.341/.408 with nine homers, 13 steals, 53 walks, 134 strikeouts in 519 at-bats in Double-A; showing increased power over the last year but at the expense of contact; may be more power long-term in this bat that commonly anticipated but doesn’t have his brother’s speed; instincts and polish help him at shortstop but may fit best at second long-term; would be interesting up-the-middle combo with Lewis a few years from now; stock has dropped for some evaluators but I’ll hold the B+ for another year. ETA late 2018.
3) Brent Rooker, OF-1B, Grade B/B+: Age 22, compensation pick, 35th overall, in 2017 from Mississippi State; outstanding senior season in college and kept hitting in pro ball, .281/.364/.566 with 18 homers in 228 at-bats between Appalachian and Florida State Leagues; no drop in production after being promoted; legitimate plus power, some contact concerns but it hasn’t hurt him yet; main issue is defense, many see him as just a first baseman but I think there’s enough athleticism for him to be a competent left fielder, which may be all he needs given the potent bat. ETA 2019 (UPDATED 3/13/2018, Rooker moved up a spot)
4) Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, B/B+: Age 23, 3.27 ERA with 118/31 K/BB in 110 innings between Double-A and Triple-A; needs more time in Triple-A but should get to the majors sometime in ’18; classic lefty approach with plus change-up as the leading pitch, mixed with low-90s fastball and steadily improving breaking ball; throws strikes with everything, mid-rotation potential. ETA 2018. (UPDATE 3/13/2018, Gonsalves down a spot and grade cut a half-notch to reflect ranking on Top 175 prospects list)
5) Fernando Romero, RHP, Grade B: Age 22; solid season in Double-A with 3.53 ERA, 120/45 K/BB in 125 innings, a mere four homers allowed; campaign ended on a down note with poor pitching in August (8.38 ERA) punctuated by a trip to the disabled list with a shoulder impingement; status unclear at the moment; when healthy combination of plus stuff and command could make him number three starter or impressive power reliever. ETA 2018 if healthy
6) Wander Javier, SS, Grade B: Age 18, signed for $4,000,000 in 2015 from Dominican Republic; hit .299/.383/.471 in the Appalachian League; has reportedly smoothed out his hitting mechanics some but I’d like to see this at higher levels; has range and arm strength for shortstop but still quite error-prone; high-ceiling, high-risk type, consider him as an upside investment; he could be an All-Star shortstop or he could fizzle out in Double-A; I tend to optimism here but there could be some ups-and-downs. ETA 2021.
7) Alex Kirilloff, OF, Grade B/B-: Age 19, 2016 first-round pick from high school in Pennsylvania, missed all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery but expected back at full strength in ’18; projects to hit for high averages with at least moderate home run power, tools for right field; obviously we need to see how much rust he has to deal with in the spring. ETA 2021
8) Zack Littell, RHP, Grade B-/B: Age 22, acquired from New York Yankees for Jaime Garcia; ridiculous stats, went 19-1 in 25 starts between High-A and Double-A with 2.12 ERA, 142/41 K/BB in 157 innings; reputation doesn’t match the numbers because he lacks a blazing fastball, working at 90-92, but his curveball and change-up work well and his outstanding command helps everything play up; may not rank this highly on other prospect lists but he checks off all the markers for a “surprise” guy who everyone under-rates until he gets to the majors, ala Kyle Hendricks or Dallas Keuchel. ETA 2018.
9) Lewin Diaz, 1B, Grade B-/B: Age 20, signed out of Dominican Republic in 2013 for $1,400,000; solid year in Midwest League at .292/.329/.444 with 33 doubles, 12 homers; defense at first base needs more work; what you think of him depends on how you project his power long-term; some qualified observers are skeptical about how many home runs he’ll hit down the road and would rank him lower than this; I’m more optimistic and think some of those doubles will turn into homers. ETA late 2020.
10) Akil Baddoo, OF, Grade B-: Age 19, compensation pick in 2016 from high school in Georgia; hit .323/.436/.527 in the Appalachian League, 36 walks against 31 strikeouts in 201 at-bats; excellent plate discipline/feel for hitting and a potential on-base machine, also runs well and could develop good power; if you want to dream on his ultimate upside, think of a cross between Matt Lawton and Tony Gwynn; I love Baddoo’s upside and if he performs well in full-season ball he’ll rocket up prospect lists in ’18. ETA late 2020.
ANALYST’S NOTE: The top ten seems pretty clear to me but it get mushier after that.
11) Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Grade B-: Age 21, from Australia, posted 2.69 ERA with 84/31 K/BB in 77 innings in High-A; missed 2015 with Tommy John surgery and 2016 with mononucleosis, but back in action in ’17 and performed well, 90-94 fastball with a good change-up, solid curve, could stand to tighten his command, possible number three starter; watch the strikeouts and K/BB ratio as he moves up to Double-A, especially as his workload increases. ETA 2019.
12) Blayne Enlow, RHP, Grade B-: Age 18, third round pick in 2017 from high school in Louisiana, could have been a first round pick on talent; posted 1.33 ERA with 19/4 K/BB in 20 innings in rookie ball, small sample of course but impressive; excellent curveball, fastball velocity inconsistent but he’s highly projectable and athletic at 6-3, 170; will need time to build strength but a high ceiling. ETA 2021
13) Mitch Garver, C, Grade B-/C+: Age 26, older prospect but showed potent bat in Triple-A, hitting .291/.387/.541; hit .196/.288/.348 in 46 major league at-bats but showed enough to get more chances; defense has been very good in the minors, can also handle first base; not much left to prove in the minors. ETA 2018
14) Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Grade B-/C+: Age 19, signed out of Dominican Republic in 2014; missed 2016 with Tommy John but back this year, 2.70 ERA with 45/13 K/BB in 40 innings, just 26 hits in Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues; clocked up to 98-100, secondary pitches need some development but both curve and slider have promise; we need to see how he handles a larger workload and it is unclear just yet if he projects best as a starter or reliever but the ceiling is high either way. ETA late 2020
15) Gabriel Moya, LHP, Grade B-/C+: Age 22, from Venezuela, acquired from Arizona Diamondbacks for John Ryan Murphy; the Twins have a lot of C+ bullpen arms with potential but Moya (while he gets the least attention right now on prospect lists) could end up being the best of the lot in an Eddie Guardado sort of way, 0.77 ERA with 24 saves in 24 attempts, 87/15 K/BB in 58 innings in Double-A; low-90s fastball, relies heavily on change-up; most project him as a LOOGY but I think there’s something more here. ETA 2018.
16) LaMonte Wade, OF, Grade B-/C+: Age 23, ninth round pick in 2015 from University of Maryland, hit .292/.397/.408 with 76 walks, 71 strikeouts in 424 at-bats; lefty hitter with mature, polished approach combined with gap power; solid glove capable at all three positions; should be valuable fourth outfielder but could be a regular if power spikes further. ETA late 2018.
17) Travis Blankenhorn, INF, Grade B-/C+: Age 21, third round pick in 2015 from high school in Pennsylvania; hit .251/.343/.441 in Low-A with 22 doubles, 11 triples, 13 homers, 47 walks, 119 strikeouts in 438 at-bats, also stole 13 bases in 15 attempts; Midwest League observers liked his power potential from the left side and his overall athleticism although he needs more polish, especially at third base. ETA late 2020.
18) Andrew Bechtold, 3B, Grade C+/B-: Age 21, fifth round pick in 2017 from Chipola Junior College; hit .299/.406/.424 in Appalachian League; expected to hit for average and shows some feel for the strike zone; there’s power too although whether that projects for homers or doubles remain to be seen; solid glove at third base. ETA late 2020
19) Tyler Jay, LHP, Grade C+/B-: Age 23, limited to 11.2 innings by shoulder impingement, posted 3.09 ERA with 19/4 K/BB in those innings between rehab work and Double-A; plus fastball and plus slider when healthy and he throws strikes but questions about durability have been long-standing; he could be really good if his arm doesn’t fall off. ETA late 2018 if healthy.
20) John Curtiss, RHP, Grade C+: Age 24, sixth round pick in 2014 from University of Texas, posted 1.28 ERA in 49 innings in Double-A/Triple-A, 68/22 K/BB, zero homers; fastball up to 97-98, also has a plus slider; held back by shaky command at times but has progressed enough to be a bullpen candidate for this season; effective against both left and right-handed hitters, giving him some long-term closer potential; ETA 2018.
Rule 5 Pick: Tyler Kinley, RHP: Age 26, 16th round pick by the Marlins in 2013 from Barry University; posted 3.54 ERA in 53 innings between High-A and Double-A, 72/22 K/BB; throws 97-100 MPH fastball but breaking stuff and command are weaker than Bard; interesting that the Twins chose to leave Luke Bard unprotected so that they would have a chance at Kinley.
OTHER GRADE C+: Luis Arreaz, INF; Charlie Barnes, LHP; Zack Granite, OF; Felix Jorge, RHP; Landon Leach, RHP; Jose Miranda, INF; Ben Rortvedt, C; Randy Rosario, LHP, Aaron Slegers, RHP; Kohl Stewart, RHP; Tyler Watson, LHP; Lachlan Wells, LHP; Tyler Wells, RHP
OTHERS OF NOTE: Nick Anderson, RHP; Jean Carlos Arias, OF; Jordan Balazovic, RHP; David Banuelos, C; J.T. Chargois, RHP; Sam Clay, LHP; Jaylin Davis, OF; Ryan Eades, RHP; Dietrich Enns, LHP; Niko Goodrum, INF-OF; Griffin Jax, RHP; Hector Lujan, RHP; Mason Melotakis, LHP; Derek Molina, RHP; Jovani Moran, LHP; Bailey Ober, RHP; Daniel Palka, 1B-OF; Jacob Pearson, OF; Williams Ramirez, RHP; Jake Reed, RHP; Alex Robinson, LHP; Dereck Rodriguez, RHP; Bryan Sammons, LHP; Cody Stashak, RHP; Wander Valdez, 3B; Andrew Vasquez, LHP; Aaron Whitefield, OF
There is a huge amount of C+ depth in this system. I will answer any questions/concerns/complaints in the comments thread.
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