Raul Mondesi 2017: Projections vs. reality

Today we will finish our community projection reviews, beginning with Kansas City Royals infielder Raul Mondesi.

The community projection was originally posted March 22nd, 2017. It assumed he would spend most of 2017 in the majors but of course that’s not what happened. Still, we aim for completeness so let’s take a look.

The community projected 95 games, 328 at-bats, 38 runs, 73 hits, 13 doubles, 4 triples, 3 homers, 15 walks, 93 strikeouts, 25 steals, 4 caught, 2 HBP, slash line .221/.260/.315, OPS .575.

In reality, Mondesi hit just .170/.214/.245 in 53 major league at-bats, with 3 walks and 22 strikeouts. The difference in playing time makes any comparison of the counting stats rather pointless. He spent most of the season with Triple-A Omaha hitting .305/.340/.539 in 321 at-bats.

Comparing to other projection systems, we find:

Steamer: 70 games, 247 at-bats, 27 runs, 57 hits, 9 doubles, 4 triples, 5 homers, 13 walks, 71 strikeouts, 15 steals, 6 caught, 2 HBP, slash line .231/.271/.360. .631 OPS.

PECOTA: 211 at-bats, 25 runs, 45 hits, 7 doubles, 3 triples, 5 homers, 9 walks, 66 strikeouts, 11 steals, 2 caught, slash line .222/.251/.361. .612.

Nobody was particularly optimistic about Mondesi but the community was the least enthusiastic, which turned out to be the right call for 2017. We’ll see what the future holds.