Maikel Franco 2017: Projections vs. reality

Finishing up our series of community projection reviews, we complete the process with a look at Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco.

The community projection was originally posted March 22nd. The results:

147 games, 547 at-bats, 78 runs, 163 hits, 35 doubles, 2 triples, 23 homers, 53 walks, 118 strikeouts, 2 steals, 2 caught stealing, 4 HBP, slash line .285/.350/.475, OPS .825.

The reality: 154 games, 575 at-bats, 66 runs, 132 hits, 29 doubles, 1 triple, 24 homers, 41 walks, 95 strikeouts, 0 steals, 0 caught, 2 HBP, slash line .230/.281/.409. OPS .690.

Other projection system results:

Steamer: 138 games, 544 at-bats, 71 runs, 148 hits, 29 doubles, 2 triples, 26 homers, 40 walks, 95 strikeouts, 2 steals, 2 caught, 5 HBP, slash line .272/.324/.472, OPS .796

ZIPS: 138 games, 534 at-bats, 75 runs, 144 hits, 30 doubles, 2 triples, 23 homers, 38walks, 99 strikeouts, 2 steals, 0 caught, 5 HBP, slash line .270/.322/.463, OPS .785

PECOTA: 560 at-bats, 67 runs, 144 hits, 29 doubles, 2 triples, 24 homers, 34 walks, 108 strikeouts, 2 steals, 1 caught, slash line .257/.303/.443, OPS .746

Everyone was too optimistic but the Community was the most optimistic and thus the most incorrect. PECOTA was closest to reality but even that was off by 56 points of OPS.