Colorado Rockies rookie right-hander Jon Gray threw a complete game shutout yesterday against the San Diego Padres, setting a franchise record with 16 strikeouts. Gray is 10-8, 4.42 in 27 starts for the Rockies with a 172/53 K/BB in 159 innings; he's been a bit inconsistent but overall his rookie debut has been strong.
Under normal conditions I would project continued improvement, but what about the Coors Field effect? Will this have a deleterious impact on Gray's career long-term?
So here's the discussion question: In your opinion, how much should team and park context count when projecting what a young player may do? I don't mean just over the short term, in the sense of expecting a higher ERA out of a Rockies pitcher for 2017 than a Dodgers pitcher, but in terms of longer-term projection when deciding whether a young player will live up to their full potential three or four or five or ten years down the road.
How do you manage this concern when making your own evaluations?