Pirates prospect Josh Bell: A Deeper Dive

One thing I like to do is to compare a prospect to other players in past years who were at the same level, similar age, and with similar production (especially with BB/K, ISO, wRC+), and then see how those players have performed in the big leagues.

Josh Bell has spent this season, his age-23 season, at Triple-A, logging over 350 PA. I decided to look at players in their age 22 to 24 seasons with at least a 140 wRC+ and 300 PA in Triple-A in any season since 2006 (that's as far back as Fangraphs goes). Doing so gave me a list of 34 players. The player with the most value in his career to date from this list is Howie Kendrick, with 26 fWAR over 5100+ PA. But, going beyond wRC+, he isn't necessarily the best comparison to Josh Bell. The group of 34 players averaged 1388 PA, 3.5 fWAR, 0.6 fWAR/650, with a median of 1068 PA, 1.1 fWAR, 1.3 fWAR/650.

So I looked at players that fell within .25 in BB/K, .040 in ISO, 20 points in wRC+, and .030 in ISO*BB/K. The two players who fell within both of these categories were Elijiah Dukes and Matt Laporta. You can kind of see Bell as falling somewhere in the middle of those two players, as they performed as prospects in Triple-A. There were 10 players who were in at least three of those four categories (table is sortable):

The most successful to date is Geovany Soto, with 13.7 fWAR. Second is James Loney, an interesting addition as he's the type of player I thought Bell would turn into before he showed the additional power this year. And tied with Soto for the most fWAR/650 PA is Joc Pederson, but Bell has never struck out at the same rate as Pederson.

This group as a whole has averaged 1418 PA, with 3.0 fWAR and 0.3 fWAR/650 - with a median of 970 PA, 2.3 fWAR, and 1.0 fWAR/650. The only player who hasn't made it to the big leagues is fellow 2016 Triple-A slugger Dan Vogelbach, and he likely will join whatever team he gets traded to this summer.

What does this list mean? Mostly, that it's hard as hell for a prospect to succeed. And that the first measure of success is making it to the big leagues. Out of the list of 34, the two without any big league time are Vogelbach and Hunter Renfroe, and both should be called up sometime this year. So just being a 22-24 year old with a 140 wRC+ in Triple-A means you're going to see the big leagues. Even still, it doesn't guarantee success.

The entire list of 34 is below (table is sortable). In the comments below, tell me:

• Who you think is most similar to Bell, and why?
• What are your predictions for Bell's final 2016 MLB stats?
• Will Josh Bell be an All Star? If so, in what year will he make his first All Star team?