Marlins MOD #1

This is my first year doing this. Suggestions are most welcome.

This year the Marlins gave up their 2nd round pick when they signed free agent Wei Chen. Their remaining picks are

Round 1 pick 7

Round 3 pick 84

Round 4, pick 113

According to Cookie daBookie's spreadsheet analysis last year, the Marlins have a very predictable pattern from prior years, other than round 1 where they seem to go for best player available (although that has been debatable, as their idea of "best" has differed from most of us a few years -- case in point, their #12 pick last year of Josh Naylor):

Round 1 -- slight preference for a HS arm (1.31)

Round 2 -- strong preference for a college arm (2.13 -- only 2 teams had a stronger preference in round 2)

Round 3 -- strong tendency for a HS bat (2.29 -- top Z score for this round)

Round 4 -- strong tendency for a college bat (3.29 -- top Z score of any round for this preference)

The Marlins head of scouting, Stan Meek, is classically close to the vest on what he's planning to do. There are some funny interviews of him before last year's draft where he either dropped some hints that turned out to be classic diversionary tactics, or completely non-informative.

So where does that put the Marlins for Round 1, pick 7? I'd have to think best player available, with a slight preference for a HS player. I agree with most of the others who value most of the top 10 or so ranked players as pretty even. Most of the mock drafts would seem to give the Marlins a chance at Blake Rutherford (OF/HS), Riley Pint (RHP/OF/HS) or Delvin Perez (SS/HS). I don't see either of the top two arms (Groome and Puk) dropping down to pick 7. But it would be nice if either did.

How say you? Whadyathink? What would you do if you were Stan Meek?

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