Padres MOD #1

First off, here are the Padres' plentiful picks:

Round 1 (8)

FA Comp (24)

FA Comp (25)

Round 2 (48)

Lottery B (71)

Round 3 (85)

Round 4 (115)

Quite a haul. I'll focus on the rest in future MODs, but now I'll look at the targets for the #8 pick. The Pads are in an interesting position having traded away much of the farm last offseason, and then acquired a bunch of new prospects this offseason. The current system stands out as fairly shallow, albeit with some pretty promising and pretty safe guys at the top (notably the two AAA OFs Renfroe and Margot), some young hitters, and very, very little pitching, although it's an interesting crew in A ball with Jacob Nix, Austin Smith, Logan Allen and Jean Cosme - all 19 or 20 years old. I'm a big believer that the old truism "don't draft for need" is, at least in spirit, a load of shit. The gap between draft prospects is not sufficiently great that some favoritism should not be shown to the players who can most help the organization. Having said that, the Padres are a team that really doesn't have anything locked down at the ML level. Anyway, here we go...

I think #8 is among the best spots to be picking in this draft. Say what you will about a lack of really elite prospects (we said the same last year, and we know how that turned out), but from where I'm sitting there is very little difference between #2 and #10. Pre-overthinking (and plenty of that is on the horizon), this is my preference list:

1. Jason Groome

2. Kyle Lewis

3. Riley Pint

4. Dakota Hudson

5. Delvin Perez

6. A.J. Puk

7. Nick Senzel

8. Blake Rutherford

9. Corey Ray

10. Mickey Moniak

Again, pretty confident I'd take Groome 1st (pretty safe to say I won't have the chance, UCL allowing), but the rest of the group is very, very tightly packed. 2-5 is basically a tie, so is 6-10. The guys who are the least stable in their spots are probably Puk, Ray, and Moniak. I'm all about Hudson, obviously, and honestly, he's the guy I'd love to be taking in this spot (sorry, gamesmanship). I have a pretty good idea of who I don't have a real shot at taking anyway, so it'll be mostly about unpacking those three OFs and Senzel. Something about Rutherford is just...boring. I dunno what it is, maybe it's the age thing? He has the whole tool kit, and even though he's old as shit, as with college competition levels, you play the hand you're dealt. If he'd been in last year's draft, not sure there's a huge difference (maybe that's the problem). There's something about Ray that bothers me too and prevents me from putting him up at the top. I like his tools and athleticism + performance + big strides, and that should be enough, perhaps it will be. Moniak had my eye from the jump, and I'm encouraged that he'd moved up. Comparing him to Rutherford is interesting. Right now, Rutherford is the Old Man, the one with the power and the pedigree, but I wonder what happens in the pros. Moniak, I suspect, will quickly establish himself as a polished hitter and grow into a pretty large frame. Rutherford is going to stay Rutherford. Senzel has a good chance of being the pick eventually. He's this draft's Boring College Hitter, but I have a good feeling about his D and his power potential. That whole last four may yet jump Puk.

Dark Horse Squad, in case something weird happens, I decide I hate whoever's available, or I feel like shaking it up:

Matt Manning

Jordan Sheffield

Joey Wentz

I've been following the draft quite closely for a few years now, and while I'm a shitty mock/shadow drafter, the one thing I think I'm pretty okay at is looking at the way-too-early prospect breakdowns and picking the duds and the underrated-s. If I'm anything, I'm a Profiler. The one HSer who immediately made me go "whoa" is Manning. Sheffield is the college player. Wentz, quite frankly, does infinitely more for me than Braxton Garrett - that guy puts me to sleep.

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