I chose the Indians because I loved their draft last year with Brady Aiken who has one of the highest ceilings in the draft and was the #1 pick in the draft the prior year. He didn't sign due to the Astros finding something wrong with his physical and later got Tommy John surgery, so he also comes with a high risk. l also loved their competitive balance pick (Triston Mckenzie) another high ceiling prep pitcher, and Juan Hillman in the second, who was a prep pitcher, but with a lower ceiling/projection than the other two and with more polish.
This shows the Indians love of their prep pitchers demonstrated by their 2.15 z-score while most of the league shies away from prep pitchers with an only 38% pick rate compared to College pitchers with 62%.
Now to their round by round philosophy. In the first round they tend to take prep pitchers (1.00) or College Bats ( .77). In the second round, they have a whopping 2.98 z-score for prep pitchers in the last 5 drafts which means more likely than not they will take a prep pitcher in the same spot again. The third round is a toss-up in what they are likely to take. In the past 5 years, they have taken 1 prep bat, 1 prep pitcher, 1 college bat and 2 college pitchers in the third round so a college arm would have the highest chance of being taken following their past patterns but it could be anyone. In the fourth they tend to take HS pitchers or College bats , which is similar to their first round selections but not as drastically shifted away from HS Bats and College Pitchers.
Following their past 5 drafts, this one will most likely look similar to
Round 1 - Prep Pitcher - Pick 14
Round 2 - Prep Pitcher - Pick 55
*Also have a pick in competitive balance round B - Pick 72
Round 3 - College Arm - Pick 92
Round 4 - College Bat - Pick 122
But with the exit of Mark Shapiro and the promotion of Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff, things could change from how they have been in the past few drafts. Look forward to your comments.
Check out a great list of draft related links here: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/5/10/11652076/cardinals-mod-1-basics