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Phillies MOD #1

Since I'm a Braves fan I'm gonna tank this hardcore.

Just kidding. I promise I will do my duty to uphold the integrity of this exercise, especially with the picks I will be working with. More on that later. For this first MOD I would like to do as others are doing and focus mainly on philosophy here. No need to break out Plato or Aristotle, cookiedabookie's Draft Analysis should suffice.

According to his excellent research and my understanding of statistics, the Phillies tend to go for a high school player in the first round. They have a 1.76 Z -score which falls in the "Very Likely" category. Looking at their tendencies in Round 1, they skew towards prep bats (1.55), will gamble every once in awhile on a prep arm (0.70), stay away from college hitters (-1.43), and to a lesser extent college arms (-0.53).

Round 2 is a coin toss as far as college or high school players with a 0.38 Z-score. Their strongest link here is to college bats (1.74), then high school bats (-0.09), high school pitchers (-0.35), and college pitchers being the least likely (-0.69).

Round 3 leans to the prep side (1.13), as does Round 4 (0.68) to a lesser extent. Round 3 shows an extremely heavy tendency towards prep bats (2.33), followed by college hitters (-0.47), college arms (-0.74), then prep arms (-0.92). The fourth round is likely to be a college hitter (1.87) followed by high school bats (-0.14), high school arms (-0.74), and college pitchers (-1.15).

This means the 2nd and 4th rounds are where the college players are more likely to be selected. If we follow the blueprint we should be looking at a draft like this -

Rd 1 - High School hitters
Rd 2 - College hitters
Rd 3 - High School hitters
Rd 4 - College hitters

Philly usually does a good job of balancing prep and college bats in their drafts. Their Z-scores for bats overall is 0.38 and pitching is .10 which means its pretty much a coin toss on which way they go. This will be a bit tough to do since their history suggests all bats for the first four rounds. Maybe they round out the top 10 with arms?

Their strongest positional tendency seems to be staying away from outfielders with a -1.46. The next strongest link is towards drafting third basemen (0.74), short stops (0.68), and first baseman (0.63). I will keep that in mind as I usually go for the best player on the board, but will likely lean towards whatever their history suggests.

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Now let's look at the picks and the money we can play with in handy dandy table form -

Round Pick Slot
1 1 $9,015,000.00
2 42 $1,536,200.00
3 78 $813,500.00
4 107 $557,600.00
5 137 $417,500.00
6 167 $312,700.00
7 197 $234,000.00
8 227 $184,800.00
9 257 $172,600.00
10 287 $161,300.00
Total - $13,405,200
5% Overage - $670,260
Total + 5% - $14,075,460

Big drop there from the first to the second selection. The total of ~$14M to play with should make things interesting as well since it is the 2nd largest pool out there. Whoever we do go with at 1st overall is highly unlikely to garner a $9M bonus. That would be insane as there isn't a draftable player out there worth that much right now.

So let's say the first pick gets a bonus in the $6.5-7M range. Dansby Swanson took home $6.5M with the top pick while Alex Bregman got $5.9M as #2 overall. This would leave us with around $2-3M to add to our offers for picks #42, #78, and #107. Say we throw $2.5M towards the 42nd pick and $1.8M to #78. This would still leave us with another $1M worth of flexibility to play with if we offer $6.5M to the first pick. That extra million bucks could be spread out or we go with a $3.5M offer to pick #42 if someone slides.

All in all, this should be a good starting point for the discussion. So please, let's discuss!

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