The Top 175 MLB Prospects for 2016

Top 175 MLB Prospects for 2016

Here is my current list of Top 175 MLB prospects for 2016. This revises and expands the Top 50/50 List published in the 2016 Baseball Prospect Book.. Grades here supersede previously published lists and rankings.

The rankings are based on a combination of sabermetrics; scouting reports (including publicly available reports and private reports from friends or contacts), video, in-person views when possible, and some measure of intuition. My lists weigh closeness to the majors and risk as well as pure upside. A list based on pure upside with less regard for risk would look quite different. I try to find a balance between the two factors.

Every list has quirks, of course, reflecting the filters and biases of the analyst. Ultimately these are my opinions and I take sole responsibility for them. Many of my rankings are in line with industry consensus, but some are not.

Thinking and analysis change constantly, so look at this as a snapshot of how things stand in late March. Such lists can be tinkered with forever but at some point you have to press the "publish" button.  I will be around in the comments thread today to answer questions.

Once you get past the Top 100 especially, you should take a "neighborhood" tier approach rather than "this guy at 129 is clearly better than the guy at 130."

1) Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade A
2) Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade A
3) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals, Grade A
4) Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade A
5) Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves, Grade A

6) Yoan Moncada, 2B, Boston Red Sox, Grade A
7) Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins, Grade A
8) Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals, Grade A
9) Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade A-
10) Steven Matz, LHP, New York Mets, Grade A-

11) Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade A-
12) Joey Gallo, 3B-OF, Texas Rangers, Grade A-
13) Blake Snell, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade A-
14) Jose De Leon, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade A-
15) Sean Manaea, LHP, Oakland Athletics, Grade A-

16) Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox, Grade A-
17) Alex Bregman, SS, Houston Astros, Grade A-
18) Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox, Grade A-
19) A.J. Reed, 1B, Houston Astros, Grade A-
20) Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals, Grade A-

21) J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade A-
22) Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers, Grade A-
23) Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics, Grade A-
24) Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade A-
25) Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds, Grade A-

26) Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+
27) Carson Fulmer, RHP, Chicago White Sox, Grade B+
28) Mike Clevinger, RHP, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+
29) Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+
30) Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B+

31) Lewis Brinson, OF, Texas Rangers, Grade B+
32) Nick Williams, OF, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B+
33) Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros, Grade B+
34) Anderson Espinosa, RHP, Boston Red Sox, Grade B+
35) Jorge Lopez, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B+

36) Joe Musgrove, RHP, Houston Astros, Grade B+
37) Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade B+
38) Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+
39) Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins, Grade B+
40) Tim Anderson,SS, Chicago White Sox, Grade B+

41) Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+
42) Cody Reed, LHP, Cincinnati Reds, LHP, Grade B+
43) Aaron Blair, RHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+
44) Dillon Tate, RHP, Texas Rangers, Grade B+
45) Gleyber Torres, SS, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+

46) Hector Olivera, OF, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+
47) Kenta Maeda, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B+
48) Brett Phillips, OF, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B+
49) Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds, Grade B+
50) Ozzie Albies, SS, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+

51) Michael Feliz, RHP, Houston Astros, Grade B+
52) Amir Garrett, LHP, Cincinnati Reds, Grade B+
53) Phil Bickford, RHP, San Francisco Giants, Grade B+
54) Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade B+
55) Christian Arroyo, SS-2B, San Francisco Giants, Grade B+

56) Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+
57) Bobby Bradley, 1B, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+
58) Rob Kaminsky, LHP, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+
59) Kolby Allard, RHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+
60) Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+

61) Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins, Grade B+
62) Jose Peraza, INF, Cincinnati Reds, Grade B+
63) Jacob Nottingham, C, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B+
64) Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+
65) Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees, Grade B+

66) James Kaprielian, RHP, New York Yankees, Grade B+
67) Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals, Grade B+
68) Jorge Mateo, SS, New York Yankees, Grade B+
69) David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+
70) Josh Bell, 1B-OF, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B+

71) Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B+
72) Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B+
73) Matt Olson, 1B, Oakland Athletics, Grade B+
74) Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade B+
75) Renato Nunez, OF, Oakland Athletics, Grade B+

76) Justus Sheffield, LHP, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+
77) Clayton Blackburn, RHP, San Francisco Giants, Grade B+
78) Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres, Grade B
79) Anthony Alford, OF, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B
80) Javier Guerra, SS, San Diego Padres, Grade B

81) Byung Ho Park, 1B-OF, Minnesota Twins, Grade B
81-A) Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees, Grade B (inadvertently left off list at first due to spreadsheet error)
82) Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals, Grade B
83) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Detroit Tigers, Grade B
84) Luis Ortiz, RHP, Texas Rangers, Grade B
85) Luke Weaver, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals, Grade B

86) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B
87) Edwin Diaz, RHP, Seattle Mariners, RHP, Grade B
88) Domingo Acevedo, RHP, New York Yankees, Grade B
89) Yusniel Diaz, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B
90) Dom Nunez, C, Colorado Rockies, Grade B

91) Antonio Senzatela, RHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade B
92) Ariel Jurado, RHP, Texas Rangers, RHP, Grade B
93) Jacob Faria, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade B
94) Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B
95) Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals, Grade B

96) Grant Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B
97) Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Washington Nationals, Grade B
98) Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B
99) A.J. Cole, RHP, Washington Nationals, Grade B
100) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, Grade B

101) Sam Travis, 1B, Boston Red Sox, Grade B
102) Jake Bauers, 1B-OF, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade B
103) Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians, Grade B
104) Trey Mancini, 1B, Baltimore Orioles, Grade B
105) Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies, Grade B

106) Cody Bellinger, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B
107) Forrest Wall, 2B, Colorado Rockies, Grade B
108) Frankie Montas, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B
109) Brandon Drury, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B
110) Andrew Knapp, C, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B

111) Alex Blandino, INF, Cincinnati Reds, Grade B
112) Ian Happ, OF-2B, Chicago Cubs, Grade B
113) Ruddy Giron, SS, San Diego Padres, Grade B
114) Billy McKinney, OF, Chicago Cubs, Grade B
115) Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres, Grade B

116) Daniel Robertson, SS, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade B
117) Dominic Smith, 1B, New York Mets, Grade B
118) Isan Diaz, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B
119) Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves, Grade B
120) Cornelius Randolph, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B

121) Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros, Grade B
122) Lucas Sims, RHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B
123) Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade B
124) Tyler Jay, LHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B
125) Erick Fedde, RHP, Washington Nationals, Grade B

126) Beau Burrows, RHP, Detroit Tigers, Grade B
127) Mike Soroka, RHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B
128) Daz Cameron, OF, Houston Astros, Grade B
129) Mallex Smith, OF, Atlanta Braves, Grade B
130) Christin Stewart, OF, Detroit Tigers, Grade B

131) Colin Moran, 3B, Houston Astros, Grade B
132) Tom Murphy, C, Colorado Rockies, Grade B
133) Jake Thompson, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B
134) Pierce Johnson, RHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B
135) Keury Mella, RHP, Cincinnati Reds, Grade B

136) Trent Clark, OF, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B
137) Spencer Adams, RHP, Chicago White Sox, Grade B
138) Derek Fisher, OF, Houston Astros, Grade B
139) Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles, Grade B
140) Roman Quinn, OF, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B

141) Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets, Grade B
142) Tyler Stephenson, C, Cincinnati Reds, Grade B
143) Clint Coulter, OF, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B
144) Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B
145) Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B

146) Tyler Naquin, OF, Cleveland Indians, Grade B-
147) Socrates Brito, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B-
148) Michael Kopech, RHP, Boston Red Sox, Grade B-
149) Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics, Grade B-
150) Juan Hillman, LHP, Cleveland Indians, Grade B-

151) Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, Grade B-
152) Willson Contreras, C, Chicago Cubs, Grade B-
153) Mark Appel, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B-
154) Jorge Polanco, INF, Minnesota Twins, Grade B-
155) Tim Cooney, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals, Grade B-

156) Austin Barnes, C-2B, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B-
157) Rob Refsnyder, 2B, New York Yankees, Grade B-
158) Colin Rea, RHP, San Diego Padres, Grade B-
159) Nick Burdi, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B-
160) Harrison Bader, OF, St. Louis Cardinals, Grade B-

161) Jomar Reyes, 3B, Baltimore Orioles, Grade B-
162) Oscar De La Cruz, RHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B-
163) Brady Aiken, LHP, Cleveland Indians, Grade B-
164) Logan Allen, LHP, San Diego Padres, Grade B-
165) Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B-

166) Aledmys Diaz, INF, St. Louis Cardinals, Grade B-
167) Mikie Mahtook, OF, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade B-
168) Richie Shaffer, 3B-1B, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade B-
169) David Paulino, RHP, Houston Astros, Grade B-
170) Jeimer Candelario, INF, Chicago Cubs, Grade B-

171) Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B-
172) Drew Jackson, SS, Seattle Mariners, Grade B-
173) Paul DeJong, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals, Grade B-
174) Tyler White, 1B, Houston Astros, Grade B-
175) Willie Calhoun, 2B-OF, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B-


OTHERS IN THE PICTURE: These are players who were examined and considered for the list. All of them can make a valid case for the 140-175 range.

Ronald Acuna, OF; Braves; Miguel Almonte, RHP, Royals; Albert Almora, OF, Cubs; Luis Alexander Basabe, OF, Red Sox; Wuilmer Becerra, OF, Mets; Tyler Beede, RHP, Giants; Jairo Beras, RHP, Rangers; Zachary Bird, RHP, Braves; Silvino Bracho, RHP, Diamondbacks; Steven Brault, LHP, Pirates; Parker Bridwell, RHP, Orioles; Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers;

Ryan Castellani, RHP, Rockies; Miguel Castro, RHP, Rockies; Dylan Cease, RHP, Cubs; Gavin Cecchini, SS, Mets; Michael Chavis, 3B; Red Sox; Taylor Clarke, RHP, Diamondbacks; Ian Clarkin, LHP, Yankees; Sam Coonrod, RHP, Giants; Jharel Cotton, RHP, Dodgers;

Braxton Davidson, 1B, Braves; Zach Davies, RHP, Brewers; J.D. Davis, 3B, Astros; Rookie Davis, RHP, Reds; Marcos Diplan, RHP, Brewers; Wilmer Difo, INF, Nationals; Carl Edwards Jr, RHP, Cubs; Zach Eflin, RHP, Phillies; Adam Engel, OF, White Sox; Thomas Eshelman, RHP, Phillies; Junior Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals; Kendry Flores, RHP, Marlins; Lucius Fox, SS, Giants; Anderson Franco, 3B, Nationals; Kyle Freeland, LHP, Rockies; Max Fried, LHP, Braves;

Aramis Garcia, C, Giants; Jarlin Garcia, LHP, Marlins; Wilkerman Garcia, SS, Yankees; Yeudy Garcia, RHP, Pirates; Stone Garrett, OF, Marlins; Michael Gettys, OF, Padres; Casey Gillaspie, 1B, Rays; Mychal Givens, RHP, Orioles; Austin Gomber, LHP, Cardinals; Marco Gonzales, LHP, Cardinals; Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Twins; Conner Greene, RHP, Blue Jays; Foster Griffin, LHP, Royals; Jordan Guerrero, LHP, White Sox; Vlad Guerrero Jr, OF, Blue Jays;

Alen Hanson, INF, Pirates; Jon Harris, RHP, Blue Jays; Monte Harrison, OF, Brewers; Kyle Holder, SS, Yankees; Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Phillies; Adrian Houser, RHP, Brewers; Wei-Chieh Huang, RHP, Diamondbacks; Andy Ibanez, 2B, Rangers; Alex Jackson, OF, Mariners; Eric Jagielo, 3B, Reds; Eric Jenkins, OF, Rangers; Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Braves; Eloy Jimenez, OF, Cubs; Joe Jimenez, RHP, Tigers; Brian Johnson, LHP, Red Sox; JaCoby Jones, SS, Tigers;

Tony Kemp, 2B, Astros; Franklyn Kilome, RHP, Phillies; Nick Kingham, RHP, Pirates; Tyler Kolek, RHP, Marlins; Kevin Kramer, SS, Pirates; Peter Lambert, RHP, Rockies; Gilbert Lara, SS, Brewers; Brett Lilek, LHP, Marlins; Ben Lively, RHP, Phillies;

Justin Maese, RHP, Blue Jays; Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds; German Marquez, RHP, Rockies; Richie Martin, SS, Athletics; Eddy Julio Martinez, OF, Cubs; Michael Matuella, RHP, Rangers; Reese McGuire, C, Pirates; Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Brewers; Casey Meisner, RHP, Athletics; Francisco Mejia, C, Indians; Yohander Mendez, LHP; Rangers; Alex Meyer, RHP, Twins; Marcos Molina, RHP, Mets; Josh Morgan, INF, Rangers; Ryan Mountcastle, SS, Orioles; Yairo Munoz, SS, Athletics;

Josh Naylor, 1B, Marlins; Nick Neidert, RHP, Mariners; Kevin Newman, SS, Pirates; Tyler Nevin, 3B, Rockies; Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets; Jacob Nix, RHP, Padres

Tyler O’Neill, OF, Mariners; Demi Orimoloye, OF, Brewers; Kevin Padlo, 3B, Rays; Jermaine Palacios, SS, Twins; Franklin Perez, RHP, Astros; Chad Pinder, INF, Athletics; Adam Plutko, RHP, Indians; Nick Plummer, OF, Cardinals; Cody Ponce, RHP, Brewers; Harold Ramirez, OF, Pirates; Cody Reed, LHP, Diamondbacks; Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Blue Jays; Wendell Rijo, 2B, Red Sox; Ashe Russell, RHP, Royals;

Chris Shaw, 1B, Giants; Magneuris Sierra, OF, Cardinals; Edmundo Sosa, SS, Cardinals; Bubba Starling, OF, Royals; Josh Staumont, RHP, Royals; D.J. Stewart, OF, Orioles; Kohl Stewart, RHP, Twins; Darnell Sweeney, INF-OF, Phillies; Andrew Suarez, LHP, Giants;

Stephen Tarpley, LHP, Pirates; Touki Toussaint, RHP, Braves; Trayce Thompson, OF, Dodgers; Nick Travieso, RHP, Reds; Sam Tuivailala, RHP, Cardinals; Cole Tucker, SS, Pirates; Spencer Turnbull, RHP, Tigers; Duane Underwood, RHP, Cubs; Richard Urena, SS, Blue Jays; Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Cubs; Austin Voth, RHP, Nationals;

Tyler Wagner, RHP, Diamondbacks; Adam Brett Walker, 1B, Twins; Christian Walker, 1B, Orioles; Taylor Ward, C, Angels; Nolan Watson, RHP, Royals; Garrett Whitley, OF, Rays; Justin Williams, OF, Rays; Jake Woodford, RHP, Cardinals; Alex Young, LHP, Diamondbacks; Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Tigers.