Here's a Crystal Ball, by reader request, for Los Angeles Dodgers young phenom lefty Julio Urias.
The Crystal Ball is NOT a PREDICTION in the sense of me saying "this is how the guy will turn out." The idea is to generate discussion about a player by presenting one possible outcome for his career, based on what we currently know about him.
It is not just thrown together; I try to make them logical, based on the outcomes of players who were similar at the same stage of their career. Sometimes a CB represents a maximal outcome, sometimes it is more of a middle ground.
Obviously the big question here is how long-term durability. This particular CB posits a Tommy John surgery and some nagging injuries but also has him as persistently above-average and at times excellent until he fades rapidly in his mid-30s.
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Julio Urias |
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Year |
Team |
G |
GS |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
W |
L |
ERA |
K |
BB |
SV |
Age |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
H/9 |
2016 |
Dodgers |
18 |
15 |
77 |
81 |
32 |
29 |
5 |
2 |
3.39 |
84 |
31 |
0 |
19 |
9.82 |
3.62 |
9.47 |
2017 |
Dodgers |
26 |
26 |
140 |
139 |
63 |
59 |
8 |
8 |
3.79 |
129 |
55 |
0 |
20 |
8.29 |
3.54 |
8.94 |
2018 |
Dodgers |
28 |
28 |
156 |
145 |
68 |
62 |
11 |
9 |
3.58 |
162 |
67 |
0 |
21 |
9.35 |
3.87 |
8.37 |
2019 |
Dodgers |
10 |
10 |
70 |
60 |
19 |
18 |
8 |
0 |
2.31 |
79 |
9 |
9 |
22 |
10.2 |
1.16 |
7.71 |
2020 |
Dodgers |
3 |
2 |
13 |
14 |
10 |
9 |
0 |
1 |
6.23 |
12 |
7 |
0 |
23 |
8.31 |
4.85 |
9.69 |
2021 |
Dodgers |
29 |
29 |
168 |
158 |
67 |
65 |
12 |
10 |
3.48 |
172 |
68 |
0 |
24 |
9.21 |
3.64 |
8.46 |
2022 |
Dodgers |
32 |
32 |
198 |
175 |
72 |
68 |
15 |
9 |
3.09 |
199 |
70 |
0 |
25 |
9.05 |
3.18 |
7.95 |
2023 |
Dodgers |
29 |
29 |
178 |
169 |
65 |
62 |
14 |
10 |
3.13 |
189 |
59 |
0 |
26 |
9.56 |
2.98 |
8.54 |
2024 |
Dodgers |
32 |
32 |
210 |
200 |
67 |
65 |
16 |
10 |
2.79 |
222 |
68 |
0 |
27 |
9.51 |
2.91 |
8.57 |
2025 |
Dodgers |
31 |
31 |
190 |
182 |
68 |
64 |
13 |
9 |
3.03 |
180 |
65 |
0 |
28 |
8.53 |
3.08 |
8.62 |
2026 |
Dodgers |
33 |
33 |
222 |
209 |
65 |
59 |
20 |
8 |
2.39 |
200 |
57 |
0 |
29 |
8.11 |
2.31 |
8.47 |
2027 |
Dodgers |
32 |
32 |
219 |
199 |
66 |
57 |
18 |
8 |
2.34 |
187 |
60 |
0 |
30 |
7.68 |
2.47 |
8.18 |
2028 |
Dodgers |
24 |
24 |
149 |
137 |
60 |
59 |
9 |
10 |
3.56 |
160 |
49 |
0 |
31 |
9.66 |
2.96 |
8.28 |
2029 |
Dodgers |
30 |
30 |
189 |
169 |
63 |
59 |
18 |
7 |
2.81 |
179 |
60 |
0 |
32 |
8.52 |
2.86 |
8.05 |
2030 |
Dodgers |
31 |
31 |
197 |
199 |
90 |
85 |
12 |
13 |
3.88 |
167 |
49 |
0 |
33 |
7.63 |
2.24 |
9.09 |
2031 |
Dodgers |
26 |
22 |
145 |
155 |
83 |
78 |
9 |
13 |
4.84 |
130 |
67 |
0 |
34 |
8.07 |
4.16 |
9.62 |
2032 |
Dodgers |
17 |
6 |
68 |
80 |
42 |
42 |
3 |
9 |
5.56 |
53 |
33 |
0 |
35 |
7.01 |
4.37 |
10.6 |
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431 |
412 |
2589 |
2471 |
1000 |
940 |
191 |
136 |
3.27 |
2504 |
874 |
9 |
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8.70
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3.04
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8.59 |
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