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Crystal Ball: Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Here's a Crystal Ball, by reader request, for Los Angeles Dodgers young phenom lefty Julio Urias.

The Crystal Ball is NOT a PREDICTION in the sense of me saying "this is how the guy will turn out." The idea is to generate discussion about a player by presenting one possible outcome for his career, based on what we currently know about him.

It is not just thrown together; I try to make them logical, based on the outcomes of players who were similar at the same stage of their career. Sometimes a CB represents a maximal outcome, sometimes it is more of a middle ground.

Obviously the big question here is how long-term durability. This particular CB posits a Tommy John surgery and some nagging injuries but also has him as persistently above-average and at times excellent until he fades rapidly in his mid-30s.

Julio Urias
Year Team G GS IP H R ER W L ERA K BB SV Age K/9 BB/9 H/9
2016 Dodgers 18 15 77 81 32 29 5 2 3.39 84 31 0 19 9.82 3.62 9.47
2017 Dodgers 26 26 140 139 63 59 8 8 3.79 129 55 0 20 8.29 3.54 8.94
2018 Dodgers 28 28 156 145 68 62 11 9 3.58 162 67 0 21 9.35 3.87 8.37
2019 Dodgers 10 10 70 60 19 18 8 0 2.31 79 9 9 22 10.2 1.16 7.71
2020 Dodgers 3 2 13 14 10 9 0 1 6.23 12 7 0 23 8.31 4.85 9.69
2021 Dodgers 29 29 168 158 67 65 12 10 3.48 172 68 0 24 9.21 3.64 8.46
2022 Dodgers 32 32 198 175 72 68 15 9 3.09 199 70 0 25 9.05 3.18 7.95
2023 Dodgers 29 29 178 169 65 62 14 10 3.13 189 59 0 26 9.56 2.98 8.54
2024 Dodgers 32 32 210 200 67 65 16 10 2.79 222 68 0 27 9.51 2.91 8.57
2025 Dodgers 31 31 190 182 68 64 13 9 3.03 180 65 0 28 8.53 3.08 8.62
2026 Dodgers 33 33 222 209 65 59 20 8 2.39 200 57 0 29 8.11 2.31 8.47
2027 Dodgers 32 32 219 199 66 57 18 8 2.34 187 60 0 30 7.68 2.47 8.18
2028 Dodgers 24 24 149 137 60 59 9 10 3.56 160 49 0 31 9.66 2.96 8.28
2029 Dodgers 30 30 189 169 63 59 18 7 2.81 179 60 0 32 8.52 2.86 8.05
2030 Dodgers 31 31 197 199 90 85 12 13 3.88 167 49 0 33 7.63 2.24 9.09
2031 Dodgers 26 22 145 155 83 78 9 13 4.84 130 67 0 34 8.07 4.16 9.62
2032 Dodgers 17 6 68 80 42 42 3 9 5.56 53 33 0 35 7.01 4.37 10.6
431 412 2589 2471 1000 940 191 136 3.27 2504 874 9
8.70
3.04
8.59