To finish up with the intense 2013 draft coverage, here is a summary of my Minnesota Twins Shadow Draft. You can read my thoughts back in late May here. Here is the current state of the Shadow Twins farm system. This is all good armchair fun, but I find that it does help focus research on the obscure prospects in particular.
My goal for 2013 was to draft the best-available talent with the top pick, which in my view would have been Kris Bryant, Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Clint Frazier, or Kohl Stewart, without worrying about any "organizational need." After that, I intended to target middle infielders, catchers, and a mixture of power and polished arms, followed by standard organizational players from the college ranks in the later rounds. For the org guys, I was looking for outfielders, middle infielders, and guys who throw strikes. I also have a tradition of picking players from the upper Midwest: Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Dakotas, Wisconsin, Illinois. I don't want to get Pujolsed.
Here is what happened, as those of you who followed along the live draft-day threads may remember since this was done in almost-real time. Overall, it is adequate but I think I should have gone with higher upside arms: getting Lively and Littrell and Knapp and Petree is overkill on the control guys.
1) Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS, Loganville, Georgia (1st round, Indians in real life, huge power)
2) Riley Unroe, SS, Desert Ridge HS, Mesa, Arizona (2nd round, Rays, just 17 years old)
3) Stuart Turner, C, University of Mississippi (3rd round Twins)
COMMENT: I had to pick between Frazier and real Twins pick Stewart. Last year I went with Kevin Gausman instead of Byron Buxton. Gausman is great but Buxton is a truly special player and at this point I wish i had gone with what the Real Twins did. This year I went with the bat (Frazier) over the pitcher (Stewart). No doubt that will turn out to be a mistake too. In the second round, I went with Unroe's upside, youth, and positional premium over real Twins pick Ryan Eades; Unroe was simply higher on my board.The Real Twins went with Turner in the third round and I made the same choice for the same reasons: I need catching, he's got a good glove, and a chance to hit.
4) Ben Lively, RHP, University of Central Florida (4th round, Reds)
5) Corey Littrell, LHP, University of Kentucky (5th round, Red Sox)
6) Brian Navarreto, C, Arlington Country Day HS, Jacksonville, Florida (6th round, Twins)
COMMENT: The Real Twins went with high school pitcher Stephen Gonsalves and 6-10 college arm Aaron Siegers. I went with two of my favorite polished college arms in Lively and Littrell. The real picks have more upside I think. I liked Brian Navarreto in the sixth round so I stuck with that. I wanted another catcher, and he was the highest signable guy on my list in that spot. It looks like the Twins had a similar list of catchers.
7) Sam Wilson, LHP, Lamar Community College (8th round, Cubs)
8) Ricky Knapp, RHP, Florida Gulf Coast University (8th round, Mets)
9) Nick Petree, RHP, Missouri State University (9th round, Cardinals)
10) Michael Ratterree, OF, Rice University (10th round, Brewers)
COMMENT: the Real Twins went with college picks with RHP Brian Gilbert, 3B Dustin DeMuth, C Mitch Garver, and RHP CK Irby here, all affordable and successful college players. I had exactly the same idea but picked different names, two very polished but low-upside right-handers, a senior college bat, and a somewhat raw but intriguing college lefty.
11) Nelson Molina, SS, Antonio Luchetti HS, Arecibo, Puerto Rico (11th round, Twins)
12) Dakota Freese, RHP, Des Moines Area Community College (12th round, Athletics)
13) Brandon Peterson, RHP, Wichita State University (13th round, Twins)
14) Zack Granite, OF, Seton Hall University (14th round, Twins)
15) Logan Pierce, 3B, Troy University (15th round, Phillies)
COMMENT: I stuck with the real Twins picks at 11, 13 and 14, all three of those guys being on my pre-draft preference list to target if still available in this area. Freese has intrigued me since he was in high school despite serious makeup concerns due to his arm strength and Lincecum-style delivery. He's a lottery ticket that probably won't pay off, but you never know. Pierce is a senior with a good hitting record, an ideal organization type.
16) Kelvin Freeman, 1B, North Carolina A&T University (17th round, Cubs, small college superstar)
17) Matt Whitehouse, LHP, UC Irvine (19th round, Indians, throws strikes)
18) Chantz Mack, OF, University of Miami-Florida (29th round, Mariners, gets on base)
19) Brett Kay, SS, Illinois State University (20th round, Giants, I need infielders )
20) Jason Kanzler, OF, University of Buffalo (20th round, Twins, power/speed, strikes out a lot)
21) Tristan Archer, RHP, Tennessee Tech (21, Brewers, throws strikes)
22) Layne Somsen, RHP, South Dakota State University (22, Reds, I try to grab guys from the north)
23) Scott Silverstein, LHP, University of Virginia (25, Blue Jays, injury history but effective)
24) Marcus Davis, OF, Florida State University (24, Padres, power bat, underrated?)
25) Chad Christensen, OF, University of Nebraska (25, Twins, on my "from Iowa" list for years)
26) Ryan Halstead, RHP, Indiana University (26, Twins, was on my preference list )
27) Randall Fant, LHP, University of Arkansas (29, Astros, throws strikes, success for big program)
28) Zach Shank, SS, Marist College (28, Mariners, I need infielders, good stats)
29) Logan Shore, RHP, Coon Rapids HS, Coon Rapids, Minnesota (29, Twins, local, what the hell)
30) Ryan Beck, LHP, New Mexico State University (30, Tigers, throws strikes)
31) A.J. Burke, RHP, Western Oregon State University (31, Athletics, on my small college success list)
32) Darian Johnson, OF, Lamar University (32, White Sox, makes contact)
33) Jeff Kemp, SS, Radford University (33, Orioles, hit for power in college)
34) Ivory Thomas, OF, Cal State Dominguez Hills (34, Twins, very fast)
35) Abe Carrasco, RHP, Mount Mercy College (non-drafted, but from Iowa)
36) David Harris, SS, Southern Arkansas University (36, Blue Jays, Division II superstar)
37) Julien Service, RHP, Northeast CC Texas (real Twins picks from here on out since i was out of names)
38) Javier Salas, RHP, University of Miami-Florida
39) Seth Wagner, LHP, Mifflin County HS, Pennsylvania
40) Kelly Starnes, OF, Los Medanos College
Of 40 players drafted, I picked 14 Real Twins, two Indians, two Reds, two Cubs, two Brewers, two Athletics, two Mariners, two Blue Jays, one Ray, one Red Sock, one Met, one Cardinal, one Phillie, one Giant, one Padre, one Oriole, one White Sock, one Tiger, one Astro and one guy who wasn't drafted.
We'll revisit this after the signing deadline to make sure all the money works.