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Mock v. Real Draft

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One thing I didn't do last year that I probably should have is compare the success of my mock drafts when compared side-by-side against the real draft.

This year, let's do a little comparison. Follow the jump to see how my mock drafts did in comparison to the real thing.

Below is a list of the real picks, then a summation of where my mock drafts lined up.

1. Washington Nationals - Bryce Harper, OF, CC of Southern Nevada - I did 9 mock drafts and hit on this one every time. There's something to say for not swaying when a lot of reporters were writing about Harper's flaws.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS (TX) - I had Taillon going to the Orioles at #3 for most of the season, but I hit on this with my last mock on the day of the draft. At least I was 2 for 2.

3. Baltimore Orioles - Manny Machado, SS, Brito Private HS (FL) - I had Machado going to the Orioles with one mock in late April, then again with my final mock draft. That's pretty good success.

4. Kansas City Royals - Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton - My original mock draft back in October of 2009 had Colon going to the Royals, but that was the last time I had it right. However, I'm going to call all of the picks where I got them right at some point a success, because the guesswork is difficult.

5. Cleveland Indians - Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Ole Miss - I had Pomeranz going #4 multiple times and #6 multiple times, but I never connected him to the Indians a single time. That's too bad, but at least I was in the neighborhood.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks - Barret Loux, RHP, Texas A&M - The highest I ever had Loux going was #25, and that was in my final mock draft on the day of the draft. That tells you how far off consensus the Diamondbacks went for this pick, as it was quite the surprise.

7. New York Mets - Matt Harvey, RHP, North Carolina - I had Harvey going as high as #10 to Oakland a couple of weeks before the draft, but this was still a little earlier than I thought he would go. No success here.

8. Houston Astros - Delino DeShields, OF, Woodward Academy (GA) - I had DeShields going to the Astros the week before the draft, except it was at #19 rather than #8. I had him slated to go #11 overall on the day of the draft, but he continued a rise that saw him go from #27 to #19 to #11 to #8 in the span of a couple weeks.

9. San Diego Padres - Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS (FL) - I had this one correct three separate times, including on the day of the draft. That's about as successful as you can get when you're not in the top five.

10. Oakland Athletics - Michael Choice, OF, UT Arlington - I got this one right for the first time on the day of the draft, but that counts for something. The previous two mock drafts before that had seen him go #8 and #9 overall, so this one wasn't very far off even before I got it right on the day of.

11. Toronto Blue Jays - Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech - I never got this one quite right, though I was in the neighborhood a few times when I pegged him for #s 9, 10, and 13 overall at different points along the way. I still didn't see a particular fit on the day of the draft, but I do like this pick for the Blue Jays.

12. Cincinnati Reds - Yasmani Grandal, C, Miami - I had Grandal going to the Reds here on two separate occasions, the last one being the week before the draft. I thought he was still in the running for #4 overall as of the day of the draft, but I'm glad to see that my previous thinking was right on.

13. Chicago White Sox - Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast - Sale never fell this far in any of my mock drafts. The furthest he ever fell was #12 overall in my January mock draft. Amazingly enough, I had the Indians taking Sale for the last 7 mock drafts I did, but they passed on him in favor of the other college lefty in Pomeranz.

14. Milwaukee Brewers - Dylan Covey, RHP, Maranatha HS (CA) - I never had Covey connected to the Brewers, but I had him going #15 overall once and #18 overall a pair of times, so this was fairly close to where I thought he might go. I had him falling further on draft day, and this was a bit of a surprise.

15. Texas Rangers - Jake Skole, OF, Blessed Trinity HS (GA) - Skole didn't appear on a single mock draft of mine until draft day, when he was mocked at #17 overall. That's pretty close, and I had him as the alternate pick for #15 overall in that final mock draft, as well. This pick was the result of very late helium, so I'm glad I at least caught on in the end.

16. Chicago Cubs - Hayden Simpson, RHP, Southern Arkansas - Simpson didn't get into a single mock of mine, even on draft day. This was by far the most surprising pick of the first round, and I think everyone would get an F for mock drafting if their grade depended on getting this pick right.

17. Tampa Bay Rays - Josh Sale, OF, Bishop Blanchet HS (WA) - I had Sale going to the Rays in this pick on 3 separate occasions, so this pick is definitely a success. This was a bit of a steal on draft day, as the Astros picked DeShields over Sale, and the Rays had a great hitter fall in their lap.

18. Los Angeles Angels - Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Cook HS (GA) - I never had Cowart specifically going to the Angels, though I went through a 7 mock draft span where he was somewhere in the 19-22 range. I thought there was a chance that he'd drop out of the first round altogether on draft day due to his signability.

19. Houston Astros - Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Minooka Community HS (IL) - Like with DeShields, my lone connection between Foltynewicz and the Astros was actually at their next pick, #33 overall. I mocked him there in early May, and even though the Astros jumped a little early for him, this is a prototypical Bobby Heck pick.

20. Boston Red Sox - Kolbrin Vitek, 2B, Ball State - I never connected Vitek to the Red Sox, though he was squarely in the top 15 picks for each of my last 3 mock drafts. I didn't get this one right.

21. Minnesota Twins - Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State - I honestly thought Wimmers would go higher, as he was in the 12-15 range in every single one of my 9 mock drafts. The Twins got a definite steal here, and it could be the second year in a row where their target just fell into their lap.

22. Texas Rangers - Kellin Deglan, C, R.E. Mountain SS (BC) - Deglan never made it into any of my mock drafts, but he would have been in the supplemental first round portion if I extended it over the last few weeks. This was still a lot earlier than I thought he'd go.

23. Florida Marlins - Christian Yelich, OF, Westlake HS (CA) - Yelich also never made it into any of my mock drafts, and I don't think he would have been in the supplemental first round sections over the last few weeks, either. I'm surprised no one is talking about this as a reach, as I think it is.

24. San Francisco Giants - Gary Brown, OF, Cal State Fullerton - I had Brown going as high as #25 overall a couple weeks before the draft, but I thought a late injury might push him into the supplemental first round. The Giants picked him here anyway, and even though I wasn't too far off, I never got this one quite right.

25. St. Louis Cardinals - Zack Cox, 3B, Arkansas - I never had Cox falling out of the top 10 picks until the day of the draft, where I had him slated to go #22 overall. I was on to the trend, though he fell a few picks further than expected. The Cardinals got a steal, but now we need to see the price tag.

26. Colorado Rockies - Kyle Parker, OF, Clemson - Parker never made it into any of my mock drafts, though he would have been in the supplemental first round section in the final two if I had extended it that far. I thought this was also a bit of a reach.

27. Philadelphia Phillies - Jesse Biddle, LHP, Germantown Friends HS (PA) - Biddle also never made it into any of my mock drafts, and he would have been down in the 2nd or 3rd round range if I had extended the mocks that far. This was one of the higher reaches of the first round.

28. Los Angeles Dodgers - Zach Lee, RHP, McKinney HS (TX) - I had Lee going as high as #32 overall in a couple of mock drafts leading up to the day of the draft, but I had him falling out altogether on the day of. This definitely wasn't a reach, as the big question was and still is signability.

29. Los Angeles Angels - Cam Bedrosian, RHP, East Coweta HS (GA) - I had Bedrosian also going as high as #32 overall, and I would have had him in my supplemental first round. This was a solid pick depending on how much he needs to sign.

30. Los Angeles Angels - Chevez Clarke, OF, Marietta HS (GA) - I had Clarke going in this pick twice, so this is an unqualified success this far down in the round. He was in the 27-30 range multiple times, but had fallen leading up to the day of the draft.

31. Tampa Bay Rays - Justin O'Conner, C, Cowan HS (IN) - I had O'Conner going in slots 29, 30, and 32 at different times, but never in the 31 slot due to a risk about signing him in an unprotected slot. This was a pleasant surprise for Rays fans, as I had him going much earlier.

32. New York Yankees - Cito Culver, SS, Irondequoit HS (NY) - No one had Culver going here, and he never made it into any of my mock drafts. Along with Simpson and Biddle, these were the most surprising picks of the round.

 

So in 32 picks, 9 of them were correct at one point or another. That's about average and to be expected. How did you guys do?