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Draft Analysis, Part II

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When analyzing thousands and thousands of players drafted, it gets to be cluttered. I've analyzed each position and separated out college, high school and junior college players by position. If I would just post numbers, it wouldn't help anyone unless they really enjoy looking at numbers.

What I did was calculated the percentage of each position to reach each rating from 10-5 and also those that did not make it to the majors. Just for an example here is what I did for each position for each round from 1 thru 10.

 

 

This is for 1st Round Catchers:

Rank

4-yr

%

HS

%

JC

%

10

1

8.33%

1

7.14%

0

0.00%

9

3

25.00%

4

28.57%

0

0.00%

8

0

0.00%

0

0.00%

0

0.00%

7

2

16.67%

2

14.29%

0

0.00%

6

1

8.33%

2

14.29%

0

0.00%

5

3

25.00%

0

0.00%

0

0.00%

0

2

16.67%

5

35.71%

1

100.00%

12

14

1

As you can see, if I did this for each position and each round, it could get very overwhelming. What I did from this is use a weighted average of each percentage and each ranking. I took 8.33% and multiplied it by 10, then 25% times 9, and so on and added them to create a weighted average of what ranking to expect from each position in each round. It is still cluttered, but much more manageable. Using this method, one player won't drastically alter any of the findings and it will show the regression of each position by round to show the likelihood of success of each position.

4 - Year

High School

Junior College

Position

Round

No.

Average

No.

Average

No.

Average

ALL

1

207

5.50

187

4.39

9

2.56

ALL

1S

75

3.73

80

2.80

5

3.00

ALL

2

159

4.33

207

2.36

20

2.75

ALL

2S

9

0.56

14

2.57

1

0.00

ALL

3

162

2.70

185

2.20

23

3.04

ALL

4

171

2.42

168

1.60

23

1.65

ALL

5

190

2.33

144

1.77

26

1.58

ALL

6

188

1.89

153

1.26

27

2.67

ALL

7

190

1.99

128

1.14

37

1.57

ALL

8

194

1.59

118

1.25

44

1.02

ALL

9

178

1.70

122

0.78

40

1.65

ALL

10

180

1.36

117

0.90

41

1.78

ALL

1903

1623

296

C

1

12

6.00

14

5.14

1

0.00

C

1S

3

4.33

6

1.67

0

0.00

C

2

15

4.60

29

2.55

0

0.00

C

2S

0

0.00

1

0.00

0

0.00

C

3

13

2.69

17

2.18

2

0.00

C

4

12

2.33

22

0.64

0

0.00

C

5

22

2.18

25

1.88

0

0.00

C

6

16

1.38

17

0.35

4

2.50

C

7

15

1.67

8

0.88

0

0.00

C

8

29

0.41

9

1.67

5

0.00

C

9

22

1.05

15

0.00

3

0.00

C

10

14

0.36

20

0.80

1

0.00

C

173

183

16

1B

1

12

6.67

13

5.38

1

0.00

1B

1S

1

0.00

6

3.33

0

0.00

1B

2

8

3.88

8

1.38

3

4.00

1B

2S

0

0.00

1

5.00

0

0.00

1B

3

12

3.00

13

1.15

2

6.50

1B

4

10

1.40

8

1.25

0

0.00

1B

5

11

5.18

15

0.40

2

0.00

1B

6

10

3.20

4

0.00

0

0.00

1B

7

12

1.50

6

0.83

0

0.00

1B

8

9

0.00

5

0.00

1

6.00

1B

9

10

1.60

8

0.00

2

0.00

1B

10

15

1.40

9

0.56

0

0.00

1B

110

96

11

2B

1

3

6.00

0

0.00

0

0.00

2B

1S

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

0.00

2B

2

4

4.25

1

5.00

0

0.00

2B

2S

0

0.00

0

0.00

0

0.00

2B

3

1

0.00

2

2.50

0

0.00

2B

4

4

0.00

2

0.00

0

0.00

2B

5

11

3.18

1

9.00

1

0.00

2B

6

7

0.71

2

4.50

1

0.00

2B

7

6

0.83

2

0.00

2

4.50

2B

8

6

0.83

0

0.00

1

0.00

2B

9

6

2.50

3

1.67

0

0.00

2B

10

11

1.18

1

9.00

4

2.00

2B

59

14

9

3B

1

10

7.00

9

7.00

0

0.00

3B

1S

4

2.75

5

4.20

0

0.00

3B

2

9

6.33

11

3.55

0

0.00

3B

2S

0

0.00

2

0.00

0

0.00

3B

3

6

3.17

15

1.47

2

0.00

3B

4

8

1.25

5

0.00

1

0.00

3B

5

8

5.75

7

1.29

1

6.00

3B

6

6

2.33

3

2.67

1

0.00

3B

7

18

3.67

13

3.31

3

0.00

3B

8

13

2.38

3

0.00

3

1.67

3B

9

11

2.27

4

1.50

1

0.00

3B

10

14

0.79

7

0.71

3

2.67

3B

107

84

15

SS

1

16

6.94

29

4.66

0

0.00

SS

1S

6

3.83

11

2.82

0

0.00

SS

2

15

3.80

28

2.50

1

6.00

SS

2S

1

0.00

3

1.67

0

0.00

SS

3

16

3.13

32

2.47

2

3.50

SS

4

13

2.62

19

1.26

2

5.00

SS

5

19

3.79

13

0.77

0

0.00

SS

6

16

2.38

14

0.57

0

0.00

SS

7

16

3.38

14

0.86

1

9.00

SS

8

22

1.86

22

1.27

3

0.00

SS

9

14

2.21

12

0.42

4

3.50

SS

10

13

2.23

12

2.00

5

2.40

SS

167

209

18

OF

1

31

5.52

46

3.83

0

0.00

OF

1S

18

4.50

16

1.56

1

0.00

OF

2

18

5.28

46

1.98

3

4.00

OF

2S

1

0.00

2

3.00

0

0.00

OF

3

26

2.12

42

1.71

7

2.71

OF

4

25

2.84

45

1.60

4

2.75

OF

5

19

1.26

32

0.81

3

2.00

OF

6

35

1.03

48

0.56

9

1.44

OF

7

41

1.71

31

0.68

6

0.83

OF

8

34

1.50

23

0.00

5

1.00

OF

9

38

1.34

34

0.29

3

1.67

OF

10

32

1.28

31

0.58

12

1.58

OF

318

396

53

RHP

1

92

4.93

56

4.23

6

3.00

RHP

1S

32

3.44

26

2.77

3

3.33

RHP

2

66

3.77

69

1.86

9

1.56

RHP

2S

6

0.83

4

2.50

1

0.00

RHP

3

70

2.14

56

1.73

12

2.75

RHP

4

72

2.11

64

1.77

13

0.38

RHP

5

81

1.74

51

2.18

16

1.81

RHP

6

85

1.78

57

1.63

9

2.22

RHP

7

57

1.28

50

0.86

18

1.06

RHP

8

69

1.68

51

1.67

16

0.63

RHP

9

56

1.50

44

1.05

24

1.21

RHP

10

74

1.38

44

0.50

12

1.00

RHP

760

572

139

LHP

1

31

5.26

24

2.83

1

5.00

LHP

1S

11

3.82

10

4.50

1

5.00

LHP

2

27

4.19

25

2.80

4

2.75

LHP

2S

1

0.00

4

2.50

0

0.00

LHP

3

24

3.88

21

3.81

0

0.00

LHP

4

37

2.81

25

1.44

3

4.00

LHP

5

31

1.68

19

1.95

5

0.00

LHP

6

23

2.48

16

2.63

9

3.22

LHP

7

35

1.91

23

0.65

8

1.88

LHP

8

29

1.79

20

1.00

12

1.58

LHP

9

33

1.76

21

1.10

7

2.57

LHP

10

30

0.73

12

0.50

9

1.56

LHP

312

220

59

Just for a quick refernce, this is what each ranking denotes:

10  All-time Great - 50+ WAR

9    Star -10-49.9 WAR

8    Occasional All-Star - 5-9.9 WAR

7    Starter-Solid Regular - 2-4.9 WAR

6    Part-time player - 0 to 1.9 WAR

5    Bench warmer - Below 0 WAR

0    Never reach the Majors

 

Amended per Cesar V's request

4 - Year High School Junior College
Position Round No. Average No. Average No. Average
ALL 1 165 6.90303 116 7.077586 3 7.666667
ALL 1S 46 6.086957 36 6.222222 3 5
ALL 2 113 6.088496 80 6.1 9 6.111111
ALL 2S 1 5 7 5.142857 0 #DIV/0!
ALL 3 71 6.169014 65 6.261538 10 7
ALL 4 70 5.9 47 5.723404 7 5.428571
ALL 5 71 6.239437 42 6.071429 7 5.857143
ALL 6 56 6.339286 31 6.225806 11 6.545455
ALL 7 65 5.815385 23 6.347826 9 6.444444
ALL 8 50 6.16 22 6.727273 8 5.625
ALL 9 50 6.06 17 5.588235 11 6
ALL 10 42 5.809524 17 6.176471 11 6.636364
ALL 800 503 89
C 1 10 7.2 9 8 0 #DIV/0!
C 1S 2 6.5 2 5 0 #DIV/0!
C 2 12 5.75 12 6.166667 0 #DIV/0!
C 2S 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
C 3 6 5.833333 5 7.4 0 #DIV/0!
C 4 5 5.6 2 7 0 #DIV/0!
C 5 8 6 8 5.875 0 #DIV/0!
C 6 3 7.333333 1 6 2 5
C 7 4 6.25 1 7 0 #DIV/0!
C 8 2 6 3 5 0 #DIV/0!
C 9 4 5.75 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
C 10 1 5 2 8 0 #DIV/0!
C
1B 1 10 8 10 7 0 #DIV/0!
1B 1S 0 #DIV/0! 3 6.666667 0 #DIV/0!
1B 2 5 6.2 2 5.5 2 6
1B 2S 0 #DIV/0! 1 5 0 #DIV/0!
1B 3 6 6 2 7.5 2 6.5
1B 4 2 7 2 5 0 #DIV/0!
1B 5 8 7.125 1 6 0 #DIV/0!
1B 6 5 6.4 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
1B 7 3 6 1 5 0 #DIV/0!
1B 8 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 1 6
1B 9 3 5.333333 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
1B 10 3 7 1 5 0 #DIV/0!
1B
2B 1 2 9 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
2B 1S 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
2B 2 3 5.666667 1 5 0 #DIV/0!
2B 2S 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
2B 3 0 #DIV/0! 1 5 0 #DIV/0!
2B 4 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
2B 5 6 5.833333 1 9 0 #DIV/0!
2B 6 1 5 1 9 0 #DIV/0!
2B 7 1 5 0 #DIV/0! 1 9
2B 8 1 5 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
2B 9 2 7.5 1 5 0 #DIV/0!
2B 10 2 6.5 1 9 1 8
2B
3B 1 9 7.777778 9 7 0 #DIV/0!
3B 1S 2 5.5 3 7 0 #DIV/0!
3B 2 9 6.333333 6 6.5 0 #DIV/0!
3B 2S 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
3B 3 3 6.333333 4 5.5 0 #DIV/0!
3B 4 1 10 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0!
3B 5 2 7 1 9 1 6
3B 6 2 7 1 8 0 #DIV/0!
3B 7 10 6.6 6 7.166667 0 #DIV/0!
3B 8 5 6.2 0 #DIV/0! 1 5
3B 9 4 6.25 1 6 0 #DIV/0!
3B 10 2 5.5 1 5 1 8
SS 1 16 6.9375 19 7.105263 0 #DIV/0!
SS 1S 3 7.666667 5 6.2 0 #DIV/0!
SS 2 10 5.7 12 5.833333 1 6
SS 2S 0 #DIV/0! 1 5 0 #DIV/0!
SS 3 8 6.25 14 5.642857 1 7
SS 4 6 5.666667 4 6 2 5
SS 5 11 6.545455 2 5 0 #DIV/0!
SS 6 6 6.333333 1 8 0 #DIV/0!
SS 7 9 6 2 6 1 9
SS 8 7 5.857143 4 7 0 #DIV/0!
SS 9 5 6.2 1 5 2 7
SS 10 5 5.8 4 6 2 6
SS
OF 1 26 6.576923 24 7.333333 0 #DIV/0!
OF 1S 13 6.230769 4 6.25 0 #DIV/0!
OF 2 15 6.333333 13 7 2 6
OF 2S 0 #DIV/0! 1 6 0 #DIV/0!
OF 3 8 6.875 10 7.2 2 9.5
OF 4 12 5.916667 12 6 2 5.5
OF 5 4 6 5 5.2 1 6
OF 6 6 6 4 6.75 2 6.5
OF 7 13 5.384615 3 7 1 5
OF 8 8 6.375 0 #DIV/0! 1 5
OF 9 8 6.375 2 5 1 5
OF 10 7 5.857143 3 6 3 6.333333
OF
RHP 1 69 6.57971 35 6.771429 2 9
RHP 1S 18 6.111111 12 6 2 5
RHP 2 40 6.225 23 5.565217 2 7
RHP 2S 1 5 2 5 0 #DIV/0!
RHP 3 25 6 16 6.0625 5 6.6
RHP 4 26 5.846154 20 5.65 1 5
RHP 5 23 6.130435 18 6.166667 5 5.8
RHP 6 23 6.565217 16 5.8125 3 6.666667
RHP 7 13 5.615385 7 6.142857 3 6.333333
RHP 8 19 6.105263 12 7.083333 2 5
RHP 9 13 6.461538 8 5.75 5 5.8
RHP 10 18 5.666667 4 5.5 2 6
RHP
LHP 1 23 7.086957 10 6.8 1 5
LHP 1S 8 5.25 7 6.428571 1 5
LHP 2 19 5.947368 11 6.363636 2 5.5
LHP 2S 0 #DIV/0! 2 5 0 #DIV/0!
LHP 3 15 6.2 13 6.153846 0 #DIV/0!
LHP 4 18 5.777778 7 5.142857 2 6
LHP 5 9 5.777778 6 6.166667 0 #DIV/0!
LHP 6 10 5.7 7 6 4 7.25
LHP 7 12 5.583333 3 5 3 5
LHP 8 8 6.5 3 6.666667 3 6.333333
LHP 9 11 5.272727 4 5.75 3 6
LHP 10 4 5.5 1 6 2 7
LHP