Here's my supplemental first round mock, assuming that Rod Barajas signs a ML deal with another club before the draft:
33. Houston Astros – DeAndre Smelter, RHP, Tattnall Square Academy (GA) – Having drafted LeVon Washington and Kevin Gausman before this, Smelter fits well into the Astros’ current philosophy of draft workout arms, following in the footsteps of Jordan Lyles and Tanner Bushue. Smelter has huge arm strength, and his big question mark is whether he has the secondary stuff or the endurance to be a starter. His arm strength is unquestioned, though, and perhaps only Stetson Allie has a better pure arm in this class. Previously: NR.
34. Toronto Blue Jays – Peter Tago, RHP, Dana Hills HS (CA) – Tago is currently on that edge between first round pitcher and unpredictable prep arm. He still fits into the category of skinny, projectable prep arm, but his command is quite good. Having already pegged the Blue Jays to pick Manny Machado, a prep arm fits here well. Tago has a high ceiling, and with the regime change in Toronto, it looks like they see the need in picking these kinds of arms, along with a mix of college arms. Previously: NR.
35. Atlanta Braves – Jesse Hahn, RHP, Virginia Tech – The Braves, while traditionally thought of as pure tools developers, have more recently gone to a mix between college and junior college players. With this being the Braves’ first pick in the draft, I think the Braves will try to find a relatively high-upside college arm, and Hahn fits that bill. Hahn has a big arm, but a reliever stigma, and he’ll have to work to keep that away this spring. Previously: #13.
36. Boston Red Sox – Jedd Gyorko, 2B, West Virginia – The man without a defensive home continues to show up as a solid all-around hitter. I have the Red Sox going with a prep arm in Stetson Allie earlier in the first round, so I would expect a more conservative pick here. Gyorko looks like he’ll be a solid MLB hitter without much work, and while his defense is generally bad in the infield, he might be able to work himself into a solid contributor. Previously: #29.
37. Los Angeles Angels – Sammy Solis, LHP, San Diego – Much like last year, I expect the Angels to use a fair number of their multiple early picks on arms with good upside. That yielded Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards, Tyler Kehrer, and Pat Corbin a year ago. Solis is a guy with an injury history that doesn’t involve his left arm, and he stands to be a candidate to move up quickly from here with a good spring. This would be a pick that makes a lot of sense. Previously: NR.
38. Toronto Blue Jays – Jarrett Parker, OF, Virginia – Parker had a rough time on the Cape over the summer, and while the tools are all there, there’s still a good amount of doubt about his future as an MLB regular. Having projected the Blue Jays to go with two preps already, I figure the Blue Jays will want a little stability with a college hitter, though one with good tools and upside. Parker fits well into a system that needs a little more depth. Previously: NR.
39. Boston Red Sox – Bryan Morgado, LHP, Tennessee – Morgado’s someone I had as a possibility for the Rays at their #31 slot in my last mock, and I still think he’s more of a supplemental first round arm. He proved what he can do on the Cape last summer, and while the White Sox wouldn’t pony up the money for him as their third-rounder a year ago, he’s much more signable as a 22 year old junior this year. The Red Sox will find good value in him at this slot. Previously: #31.
40. Los Angeles Angels – Kyle Blair, RHP, San Diego – It wasn’t until after I put together this section of the mock that I found that I had the Angels taking teammates with back-to-back picks. However, I don’t think anyone would blame the Angels for picking these two high-upside college arms. Blair has big-time stuff, but can’t seem to stay healthy long enough to put it together. I’m a little afraid he’s headed down the Adam Miller path, but he still has enough talent to warrant this spot. Previously: #26.
41. Toronto Blue Jays – Justin Grimm, RHP, Georgia – Whereas Jarrett Parker is the collegiate anchor to weigh in with the high upside of Manny Machado, Grimm is my alternative to Peter Tago for the Blue Jays. Grimm is projected to go somewhere from the late first round to the early second, and he’s a solid collegiate arm with relatively good upside, something the Blue Jays will be looking for in these picks. He could become a mid first-rounder with a good spring. Previously: NR.
42. Tampa Bay Rays – Robbie Aviles, RHP, Suffern HS (NY) – I played around Aviles going to the nearby Yankees at the end of the first round, but I don’t get the feeling that scouts are as secure in their feelings about Aviles as they are about Cam Bedrosian. Aviles has a Florida commitment that shouldn’t be too hard to get through, and I think the Rays will be looking to balance price and talent with their #31 and #42 picks. Aviles fits that well. Previously: NR.
43. Seattle Mariners – Brett Eibner, RHP/OF, Arkansas – Eibner still stands out as the best two-way collegiate talent in the 2010 draft, and he could honestly go either way depending on his spring. A comparable player from a year ago, Blake Smith, was picked as an outfielder, while the pitching counterpart, Aaron Miller, showed enough to warrant comparable selection slot as a pitcher. The Mariners drafted James Jones as an outfielder a year ago over pitching for the upside, and that could be the case here. Previously: #28.
44. Detroit Tigers – Kris Bryant, 3B, Bonanza HS (NV) – The Tigers don’t seem to shy away from hitting projects, as we’ve seen the likes of Cale Iorg, and more recently Daniel Fields, be drafted and given big bucks by the same front office. Bryant’s gotten multiple reviews as a possible metal bat hitter, though with humongous raw power that comes closest to Bryce Harper in this class. If he can prove he can handle third base at the pro level, it helps his stock. Previously: #11.
45. Texas Rangers – Taijuan Walker, RHP, Yucaipa HS (CA) – The Rangers, despite coming under new ownership before the draft, will likely be somewhat conservative with their early-round spending this year. After pegging them with a collegiate arm and bat in the first round, I have them going with a signable high-upside prep arm in the supplemental first with Walker. He doesn’t currently have a college commitment, and all signs point to him being signable. Previously: NR.
46. St. Louis Cardinals – Gary Brown, OF, Cal State Fullerton – When I interviewed Daniel Renken a few months ago, his description of Brown pretty much hit the nail on the head when it comes to how the scouting community seems to think of him. He’s fast. Very, very fast. He has the tools to be a good leadoff hitter, and I suspect he’ll be taken in the late supplemental first round to the early third round range. Previously: NR.
47. Colorado Rockies – Todd Cunningham, OF, Jacksonville State – While a good number of scouts think of Cunningham as the definition of a ‘tweener, there’s enough good things to like about him that should lead to an early selection for him. The kid can flat-out hit, and I suspect that a team like Colorado, which valued Tim Wheeler last June, will pounce on him in the middle of the first day. Previously: NR.
48. Detroit Tigers – Sam Dyson, RHP, South Carolina – Dyson turned down the A’s as their tenth-rounder last June, and while I’m sure he passed up good money, he’s probably in line for a good payday if he stays healthy this spring. He has an elite arm, but his shoulder injury history seems to spook teams more than most. If he can prove he can stay healthy with a big workload, while also improving his on-the-field performance this spring, he’ll be gone before this. Previously: NR.
49. Texas Rangers – Micah Gibbs, C, LSU – While the Rangers’ system is known for its depth and top elite talent, one piece that’s missing is good catching. While I don’t condone drafting for need, this is a pick that makes sense on multiple levels, also including Gibbs’ signability and talent. A switch-hitter, Gibbs projects to be a solid everyday catcher at the big league level, similar to Jason Castro in 2008. With a productive spring, Gibbs could find himself in the first round. Previously: NR.
50. St. Louis Cardinals – Michael Choice, OF, UT-Arlington – Choice played with Team USA over the summer, and while I’m not the biggest fan of his play, it seems his stock is rising. It sounds a lot like Kentrail Davis a year ago. He’s probably stuck in left field as a pro, so much depends on his huge raw power. He could easily find himself in the first round or the fifth, depending on if his game production numbers stay up and scouts show less worry about his swing plane. Previously: NR.
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