According to Steve Malewski, the Orioles and second rounder Mychal Givens will not be agreeing to a contract before the signing deadline on Monday. This news will cause a number of consequences, but first, here's some quotes from the article linked above:
"O's scouting director Joe Jordan tells MASNsports.com "we no longer have an offer on the table.""
""We will now probably sign a couple guys I really like. The Orioles will be covered, we have some insurance if you will, with some picks later in the draft.""
Hmm...Where do I begin?
First, this looks like it actually is done. Sometimes you hear about negotiations that essentially fall apart at this point in the process, only to have talks resume shortly. However, this looks like a done deal for the Orioles, and they're moving on. I essentially feel that scouting director Joe Jordan and the Orioles had an internal deadline about negotiations, and that was shown with the signings of Randy Henry, Ashur Tolliver, and Ryan Berry just a few days ago. I assume they had an upper limit for a Givens offer, and when his adviser officially declined that offer at the internal deadline, Jordan and his scouting department met and decided it was simply best to move on. Givens is represented by Legacy Sports Group, specifically by Kenny Felder, whose only other top ten round client this year was the Rangers' seventh rounder Braxton Lane, who signed quickly. So Felder had plenty of time to negotiate with Jordan, but it looks like both had their limit, and it was met within the past day or two.
Looking at the ramifications of this development, I think there are quite a few significant events that will be happening shortly. First, we'll hear that the Orioles have agreed with catcher Mike Ohlman, their eleventh rounder. The second prospect that Jordan considers a second round talent is probably fifteenth rounder Garrett Bush, a prep righty from Florida. The only other option that I see that matches that artificial qualification is prep lefty Cameron Coffey from Texas, though he had Tommy John surgery this spring and has a Duke scholarship, so that might be a stretch in terms of "second round talent," a quote from Jordan. Of course, Jordan's covering himself by saying that, and I don't consider any of those three prospects second round talents, though Ohlman comes closest. The next consequence to the Orioles directly is the compensation pick they'll receive next year. It will be pick number 55 (a), essentially the 56th overall pick. That might be pushed back if other picks ahead of him don't sign, but it will certainly be between picks 56 and 60. There's some good talent in next year's draft, but Givens was a borderline first round talent in most drafts, so I don't see them coming out ahead overall. It's essentially a trade of Givens for Mike Ohlman, Garrett Bush/Cameron Coffey, and a 2010 second round pick. Decent move, but I'm pretty sure it's not what the Orioles wanted.
The last ramification of this news involves schools themselves. Oklahoma State finds itself in the best position tonight, as they've secured a starting shortstop, a potentially great shortstop. On the losing end is Miami, who had signed Ohlman, and either Auburn or Duke, depending on if it's Bush or Coffey respectively. It will be very interesting to watch games next spring in Stillwater, Oklahoma, as Givens teams with guys like 2010 draft prospect Dean Green, a first baseman. The Big 12 is not happy right now at having to face Givens, but the ACC will definitely be getting lighter, with perhaps Auburn being pulled in, as well.
Now you see the deep-reaching effects that one kid's decision has on the entire draft process. Mychal Givens has made a lot of people's days much worse or better, depending on who you are.
UPDATE: Jeff Zrebiec says the Orioles have agreed with Cameron Coffey. Bonus amount to come.
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