Thinking about Beau Mills
With a relative shortage of top college hitters this year, Beau Mills stands out. He was a very good hitter at Fresno State his first two years, but transferred to the smaller pond of Lewis-Clark State this year and put up monstrous numbers: .458/.556/1.033, with 38 homers, 22 doubles, 123 RBI, 43 walks, and 22 strikeouts in 240 at-bats. His OPS was 1.589. The combined OPS of the games in which he played was about .797...a crude estimate would put his OPS+ at 199. Basically he was so much better than his teammates or the competition that the numbers move into the ridiculous category. Imagine Albert Pujols playing in the Pioneer League.
Scouts are certain that Mills' power is for real and that he'll continue to hit for plus power at higher levels. He's got solid plate discipline. There's some doubt about what his batting average is going to look like, but he should post a solid OBP no matter what to go with his power. The main issue is defense. Shoulder problems have limited his arm strength, and he doesn't have a lot of mobility. He'll probably end up at first base eventually.
I could see Mills going anywhere from picks four to twenty, depending on how things shake out with the high schoolers. My question for you is this: if you drafted Mills, where would you start him? Would you send him to short-season ball, or, considering his dominance this year, would you stick him in a full-season league right off the bat, and if so, how high?