Thinking about Tyler Clippard
Here is what I wrote about Tyler Clippard in the book this year:
Others have similar views. My friend Deric McKamey in his 2007 Minor League Baseball Analyst rates Clippard as a potential number five starter, and points out that he gets his strikeouts with movement and deception, not pure velocity. Baseball America ranks Clippard as the number seven Yankees prospect, projects him as a fourth starter, and notes that he "pitches backward," using fastballs in breaking ball counts and vice versa. The list of comparable pitchers generated by Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system is intriguing, including Anibal Sanchez, John Patterson, Ralph Terry, and Javier Vazquez on the positive side, with Pete Broberg, John Stephens, Dicky Gonzalez, and Scott Sobkowiak on the `not-so-positive' end.
Here's an educated guestimate for Tyler Clippard in 2007:
Year Team League G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV ERA
2007 Scranton AAA 22 22 129.0 125 69 59 16 53 119 9 9 0 4.12
New York AL 4 1 11.1 12 5 5 2 5 6 0 1 0 3.97
What do you guys think about that? Too optimistic? Too pessimistic?