There are some positives to take out of Young's season. (We all know the negatives and they have been discussed all season, HR's were down, K's were up, Steals were down)  But I want to focus on the positive for CY, because I think there are a lot.

1.) He increased his walks from 43 to 62, and his walk % from  0.69 to 0.89

2.)  His OBP went from .295 to .315, an increase of 20 points in an environment where league average OBP went down. 

3.) While his HR's were down 10, his XBH hit total actually increased from 64 to 72, thanks to a huge jump in doubles and triples.

4. ) His BABIP went from .260 to .304.  Thats not luck in this case. Remember hitters have more control over their BABIP than pitchers do, and in fact Young's Line Drive Rate  went from 15.1%  to 19.1%. 

5.) For the second year in a row his second half numbers were much better than his first half numbers.  Selective begin and end points, to be sure, but perhaps an indication he is capable of making in season adjustments.  I fully admit to being quite disheartened by his first half.  I lamented quite often how he seemed to be making a huge step backward at the time. But with the perspective of the entire season, and without  the ever present  emotion of frustration during the actual games, it's easier to take a longer term view here.

6.) His situational hitting with RISP and Men on base improved a great deal in 2008.  I think we all acknowledge that due to small sample sizes, BA W RISP and the like are not very predictive, but he went from awful in these situations to decent.

CY's Splits page

7.) His sac bunting improved...he went from 1 to 6 SH,  and he was much more willing to show bunt attempt for base hit  and get the 3B to cheat. I've always felt this was key for Young's success because he pulls so many hard grounders and low liners to the left side.  So he gets the double benefit of utilizing his speed AND increasing his chances of getting a hit past a cheating 3rd basemen.  I'd like to see more of it from him in 2009.  He still needs to improve his bunting for basehit attempt %.  He was just 3 for 12 when attempting to bunt for a hit.  He and Justin Upton both had just 3 Bunt hits, and that was tied for just 40th in the majors. Guys this fast need to improve on this.  But just showing the attempts will help him get more hits in the long run.

He's still got a lot to work  on  course. Pitch recognition being first and foremost.  For example the major league average for Percentage of strikes looking is 27%. In 2007, Young's was 32%, and that went even higher in 2008, to 34%.   We all saw it all year long....he just stared at too many hittable strikes.     If  CY can learn to recognize strikes a little better, and swing and not miss those hittable pitches, pitchers will start being much more careful with him and not just pound the strike zone like they do now, knowing they can get ahead.

Finally, the other positives for CY are that he's still only 25, and that he just came off an excellent defensive season in which he established himself as a top tier defensive centerfielder.   I believe going forward CY has an excellent chance to continue to improve, and that when it's all said and done, we will have determined he was well worth the contract extension.

Jackson led the N.L. with a .542 (13-24) batting average, a 1.083 slugging percentage and nine runs scored, and he tied for the N.L. lead with 13 hits. The 26-year old first baseman hit two doubles, a triple and three home runs, drove in seven runs, and recorded a .593 on-base percentage. The University of California at Berkeley product recorded consecutive three-hit games on July 21st and 22nd vs. the Chicago Cubs and then added another three-hit effort on July 27th at San Francisco. Jackson (.324, 12 HR, 55 RBI) ended the week by posting five straight multi-hit games in which he collected at least one RBI. This marks Conor's second weekly award honor of the season (previous: 4/21).

MLB Press Release

It's a pleasure seeing CJ come into his own and reward those who had the patience and foresight to stick with him as he made incremental improvements to his game over the last 3 years.

Coupled with the improvements to his baserunning, and the surprisingly adequate   defense in LF, he has become a very valuable player, and we are lucky to have him under control for the next 3 years through what is sure to be the prime of his career.

I just posted this at DBBP:

After seeing our disappointment (At DBBP)  at not being able to attend a Q &A with Josh, Derrick Hall reached out ....again.....and let me know he wanted to arrange something special. None of the speculation about the reasons for it not being available were correct. It was simply something that the ticketing department was going to make exclusive to season ticket holders....but they obviously decided to open it up. After some consultation, the date of August 23rd, which coincides with the DBBP/AZ Snakepit group outing has been chosen for a special Q &A session.

Below is the text and information I just received:

Hello

After speaking with our Team President, Derrick Hall, we will be having a Fans Ask Questions session with Executive Vice President and General Manager Josh Byrnes on Saturday, August 23rd.  The session is free for anyone who pre-registers and has a ticket for that night’s game.  It will be held in the Upper Concourse Banquet Room beginning at 3:15pm, 15 minutes after gates open and last approximately 1 hour.  A flyer is currently being made, I can e-mail it to you after completion if you would like.  To register, fans can e-mail me or call 602-462-6544.  Please let me know if you need anything else.

 

Thanks,

Ryan

Here is Ryan's e mail address:

RGinsberg@dbacks.com

So if you are going to the game Sat, Aug 23rd, e mail Ryan, or Call him to register.

Thanks to Derrick, Josh, and Ryan.

You guys are the best. !!

Sorry for the cross post, but  I assume not everyone here reads DBBP

First 17 G,, 13-4, .281/.364/.496 .860 OPS, 112 runs, or 6.6 R/G

Next 24 G, 13-11 .265/.336/.425 .761 OPS, 116 runs, or 4.8 R/G

Next 28 G, 11-17 .216/.302/.378 .680 OPS,, 99 runs, or 3.5 R/G

Obviously some of this has to do with schedule. (.819 home OPS, 689 road OPS) But not all of it. In the first stretch they had 8 home games and 9 away games. In the second stretch they had 16 home games and 8 away games. And in the most recent 28 G stretch they've had 11 home games and 17 away games. Overall they've played 35 home, 34 road.

They've slowed down hitting at home too.

In the 3 Game Detroit series they scored just 10 runs and had a .579 OPS
In the last 6 Game home stand they scored just 22 runs and had a .740 OPS
And of course in the last 2 games vs. KC they have scored just 4 runs in 19 innings.

***In their last 11 HOME GAMES the D backs have scored just 34 runs, or barely over 3 per game, and have scored more than 4 runs just 1 time in their last 11 home games.***

So much for home sweet home.

Last years team had one comparable offensive slump, from April 21st through May 18th,

25 G, .232/.304/.376 .680 OPS, 85 runs, 3.4 R/G
However that team managed to go 12-13 during that stretch. And I don't see a Mark Reynolds on the Horizon to come up from AA to jump start the offense.

But.......... maybe Eric Byrnes will come back in the next few days, rejuvenated and on a hot streak, and jump start this team. Seriously.....it's up to him to be the sparkplug. If there was ever a time where this team needed to look to their inspirational leader and highest paid position player to help pull them out of a funk, THIS IS THE TIME.

As goes Eric Byrnes, so go the Diamondbacks. This is his team.

Go Eric!!

Per baseball prospectus glossary:

 

WARP-1

Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season. It should be noted that a team which is at replacement level in all three of batting, pitching, and fielding will be an extraordinarily bad team, on the order of 20-25 wins in a 162-game season.

WARP is also listed on a player's PECOTA card. 

 

Basically WARP takes  pitching, hitting, defense and baserunning into account. The "Wins above replacement" are a counting stat, not a rate state, so of course playing time matters.  BUT...if you get a lot of playing time and you suck too much, it's obviously going to work against you.

If I were to rank who I thought have been the most valuable players on this team year to date, without looking up WARP, I really think I would have come up with the same exact order of the top 5.

Webb 4.4

Hudson 3.1

Haren 2.8

Snyder 2.5

Jackson 2.2

Owings 2.0

Young 1.9

Johnson 1.3

Drew 1.2

Reynolds 1.2

Ojeda 1.0

Upton 1.0

Scherzer 0.7

Burke 0.5

Davis 0.4

Byrnes 0.3

Salazar 0.2

Montero 0.1

Gonzalez 0.1

Tracy 0.1

Hammock -0.1

Romero -0.2

Time for the first annual update of the D backs RBI Opportunities.

For those unfamiliar with this report, it is available to subscribers only at Baseball Prospectus. What this report does is simply add up how many runners have been on base during a players at bats, and see how many of them the player has driven in. (Not including himself should he hit a homer)

The "OBI"% is simply the percentage of others batted in, or the % of runners on base a hitter batted in. I find this stat to be a good proxy in place of where you might use BA W/RISP, because that stat has the same inherent flaws as batting avg....all hits count the same.

An infield hit with a runner on second that does not score the run gets the same credit as a bases loaded triple........I think you see the point

For some additional context:

Among all MLB players with a minimum of 120 Plate Appearances, Jackson ranks second behind only Josh Hamilton, who has a 27.4% rate.

Jackson led all D backs regulars in this category last year as well, with a 16. 9 % rate. (477 PA) That was second only to Tony Clark, who had a 17.6% rate, but of course only 245 PA's

Snyder, the next highest full time D Back player ranks 42'd in the majors

Eric Byrnes ranks 186th out of 227

SWEET!!

The simple act of turning balls in play into outs.  Simple, easy, clean concept.

Jonah Keri wrote the following in the NY Sun today in a review of the success the Florida teams are having this year:

 

PECOTA saw the Rays making their biggest improvement on defense. In acquiring slick-fielding Jason Bartlett to replace the mishmash of Brendan Harris, Ben Zobrist, and company, the Rays found a big upgrade at the most important position on the diamond. Evan Longoria has been a big upgrade at third base, moving Akinori Iwamura over to second, where he's become a bigger defensive asset. Subtracting Delmon Young from the outfield has also helped.

Indeed, much of Tampa's perceived pitching problems last year were actually the result of their defense failing to turn balls in play into outs. Last year, the Rays were dead last in the majors in that category (also known as Defensive Efficiency), converting just 66.2% of balls in play into outs. It should have been no surprise, then, to see Tampa post the worst team ERA last year, at 5.53. The Rays' starters were the third-worst group in the game at 5.20; the bullpen was the worst in baseball by a wide margin, at 6.16.

This season, the Rays have jumped to second in Defensive Efficiency, at 72.5%. It's no surprise that their run prevention has also improved dramatically — a 3.68 team ERA, fifth-best in the majors.

NY Sun Article

I really don't think that anyone would dispute that having athletic fielders that can make plays helps out a teams pitchers.  It's great to have a high team fielding percentage, but if the fielders have the range of fire hydrants, it doesn't really do that much good to make few errors if you are letting too many other balls go for hits.

Of course the ideal situation is for a team to have a high DER  and also have a good fielding percentage. I don't advocate looking at only one stat.  I'm just saying that in looking at a team's overall defense, you need to look at BOTH DER and Fldg. % if you want to get a fuller, clearer picture.

Finally, I will leave with this little chart, and leave it for the reader to determine which number seems to correlate more closely to improvement in ERA

Jim hasn't had time lately to update this section of the site, so I thought I would lend a helping hand, and add a little "nuance" to things.  ;)

OPS+ since the begginning of the  2008 season:

Quentin 161  OPS+

Hairston 91 OPS+

Byrnes  70 OPS+

Unadjusted Raw numbers

Quentin:  149 PA's,  .288/.403/.568 9 HR  29 RBI  3 SB  2 CS

Hairston:   121 PA's  .229/.277/.431  5 HR  11 RBI   1 SB  0 CS

Byrnes:  159 PA's,  .226/.289/.377   3 HR  15 RBI  4 SB, 2 CS

Note:  Q plays in a very homer friendly home park, and of course Chase helps inflate offense too, while Petco is the most extreme pitchers park in baseball, so providing both OPS+ and the unadjusted numbers helps add a little depth and clarity to the comparison. (Jim, might I suggest adding OPS+ to your line as you update throughout the season?)

And finally, since the day Hairston was traded, July 28th,  here is the comparison between Byrnes and Hairston. (Q played very little after July 28th  last year so I didn't bother sticking him in here.)

Hairston  217 PA's,  196 AB    .255/.304/..526  13 HR  31 RBI  1 SB, 0 CS, 1 GIDP

Byrnes  392 PA's,  356 AB's,  .233/.306/.374  8 HR  39 RBI, 27 SB, 3 CS, 13 GIDP

Hairston aint all that, I agree.  He's not as good a hitter as I thought he'd become. But he's still a better hitter than Byrnes.  EB is a better fielder, by far, but Byrnes would have to play LF, CF, & RF all at the same time to earn that 3 yr. 30 million contract,  and be worth the difference between what they are paying him and what they could have been paying Q or Hairston.    Since the day he signed  that extension,  he's totally sucked, and the numbers prove it CONCLUSIVELY beyond any reasonable form of debate or argument.  He got that extension on the strength of a two month hot stretch in May and June that hoodwinked ownership into thinking he was better than he really was.  What a shame. What a waste.

Signing Byrnes cost this team Q, and cost this team Hairston, and saddled themselves with an albatross.   I'm sure he'll hit better than he has lately.......he's not as bad as his last 3 weeks, but look at those numbers over his last 400 times to the plate folks.  Get used to it, cuz it just won't get much better than that.  A little maybe, but not much.

It has been put forth by one poster that Jackson doesn't hit the "tough righties" and the only reason his numbers were good in the second half last year was because he didn't have to face tough righties.

I am here with FACTS to debunk that fallacy once and for all. Info courtesy of a friend with Stats Inc. Stats Pass, sorry, no links available, as thats a private account, you'll have to trust the numbers are accurate....(given to me over the phone) anyone doubting is free to go to the BB REF game logs and look it up game at a time.

1.) From May 1st through the end of the season, Jackson had the following batting line vs. RHP:

.280/.353/.467  .820 OPS  
246 AB 69 Hits 19 Doubles 9 HR 35 RBI 27 walks 30 K's

Does this look like a man that can't hit righties?

Of course he mashed lefties during that time span.......330/.413/.578 .991 OPS  7 doubles, a triple, 6 homers  and 20 RBI  in 109 at bats.
I don't think we need to begrudge him for killing lefties.  ;)

But he hit righties just fine. And he always has. He hit righties and lefties equally well in 2006 (.808-.810 OPS split)  and yes he hit righties almost as well as lefties in the minors in 2005.  (Minor league performance DOES have evaluation utility for all but the most myopic of people, at least when we are talking about 25 year olds in the 2nd full major league season)

In April of 2007 Jackson was playing with a hamstring injury that should have put him on the disabled list, but he played through it. Once he got over that, and got his "base" back, he hit well for most of the rest of the season.  He didn't hit well just because he faced a larger percentage of lefties than usual. (58% vs RHP, 42 % vs. LHP from May 1 on) He hit well because he was mostly  healthy. (later in the season he did also battle wrist and knee injuries, but he fought through those as well)

2.) The notion that Jackson can't hit "tough" righties is also a complete and utter falsehood. The two right handers that Jackson has faced the MOST in his career are Peavy and Penny, with over 20 PA's vs. both of them.  I think everyone would agree these guys are pretty tough righties

Career vs. Jake Peavy  .474/.524/.684
Career vs. Brad Penny  .363/.417/.591

In 13 AB's vs. matt Cain he's hit .385/.467/.467

Of course there ARE righties that have owned Jackson, he's 0-11 vs. Aaron Cook and 0-10 Vs. Chad Billingsley, and only 3-15 vs. Matt Morris of all people.

It's a mixed bag.....but to put forth the notion that Jackson can't hit "tough righties" is clearly a falsehood that is easily debunked by the playing record. There are some he hits well and others he doesn't. Simple as that.

One very interesting note about Jackson is that for his career so far, he has hit power pitchers better than finesse pitchers, and flyball pitchers better than groundball pitchers.

You can see that split here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=jacksco01&year=c

Was he an all star?  No....of course not.  Has he achieved a level of performance yet  myself and many others hoped and even predicted he would  based on his minor league performance the scouting reports?  Not Yet. I freely admit that.  But was he a bad player that hurt the team?  Of course not. He was a well above league average hitter from May 1st onwards and  was one of the most productive hitters on the team.  

Does he need to continue to improve in order to still be a valuable player, especially relative to his position?  YES. He is entering his final pre-arb year, and he needs to bring his overall performance both at the plate and in the field up another level for him to be a player the team should consider investing in a longer term contract. (i.e. buying out his arb years and a year of free agency if possible).

For me personally, on the offensive side of things, I would be pretty disappointed  with anything under an .850 OPS from Jackson over a full season in 2008.  I would be pleased with an OPS between .850-.875 and would view that as solid improvement. Anything over .875 would have to be considered an unequivocal success.  If he is not jerked in and out of the lineup, and puts up an OPS around .875 or better, the counting stats , i.e. homers, rbi, will be there.

Of course he also needs to improve some more on defense. While there are those that completely over estimate the importance of  First Base defense in relation to offense in the first place, and probably criticize Jackson's defense more than it needs to be criticized, (based on objective measures he's only somewhat below average and far from the bottom of the pile) Jackson DOES need to improve a good deal at first base to be an "all around player".

He's never going to be a Mark Grace or Albert Pujols with the glove. But he's nowhere near as dreadful as some would have you believe.

I really hope, above all things, that somehow the organization sees fit to let Jackson get 600 PA's in 2008. This more than anything  will put to bed once and for all the debate about what kind of player he can become, one way or the other. But MUCH more importantly, I  truly believe the team will be rewarded by a much improved and more confident player that knows the team is truly behind him.

Time will tell what he can become. But what he is RIGHT NOW already has value to this team.

As my signature used at DBBP has said for a long time:

League avg for league minimum is excellent (value), league avg for 10 million?........not so much.