Here is the original list. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/4/3/389462/my-top-58-position-prospec

Here is the methedology. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/2/7/132252/7297

I should note that I am a big fan of sample size, so my opinions are going to be very fluid right now. At the end of the season, I will do more research and check the overall body of work for the players and have a complete list for you next April....after my fantasy draft.

I'll list the players with their old rating, then make a comment, then in some cases, I'll give an estimated new rating. If I do, that will be as of today, and not a guess as to what the rating will be heading into next season.

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A few weeks ago I released my top 58 position prospects http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/4/3/389462/my-top-58-position-prospec, as I had them ranked in early Febuary.

There was a major mistake regarding Neil Walker. I had him ranked at #38 with a rating of 8.0. I made a typo regarding his level, which hurt his ARL, which hurt his prospect status. Once I put in the correct level, his new rating would be 9.0 and his ranking would be somewhere between 16-19.

The reason I found the typo is I've got Dewitt and Walker on my minors reserve, and one of them will have to go, more likely sooner than later. As I was researching the stats and looking at my list, I noticed that Walker's level was incorrect. That's a big deal. Dewitt has closed the gap a little, but in early Febuary, Walker had a clear edge.

I'm going to try and hold on to both as long as possible. One thing that's helping out is, very little qulaity pitching has emerged in my league.

NOTICE; I will not reply to questions regarding Jed Lowrie, Chase Headley, Snider vs Marrero, or pitchers. My feeling on the first four players is well documented on this site. Pitchers value deserves a thread of it's own.  Other than that, fire away.

 

I was going to release this before the season. I released http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/2/7/132252/7297 this post to give an idea of how I look at things, which lead me to find out that people in my league read this site, so I had to scale back my posting until after my draft.

I'm going to release the preseason list, which was finished in early Febuary. I'll make comments where needed. Keep in mind, ranking carries more weight at the top of the list, rating is carries more weight at the bottom of the list.

 

1. Jay Bruce, cf, 10.0

2. Evan Longoria, cf, 10.0

3. Colby Rasmus, cf, 10.0

I went back and forth between Bruce and Longoria, but ultimately decided to go with Bruce's youth. Rasmus is pretty clear at #3 for me. Joba and Clay would slide in right here in some order.

4. Cameron Maybin, cf, 9.5

5. Andrew McCutchen, cf, 9.5

I think people forget that 'Cutch was a 20 year old that played a full season at AA. When you look at his numbers in that context and factor in his athleticism, you come up with an elite prospect.

6. Andy Laroche, 3b, 9.5

7. Daric Barton, 1b, 9.5

LaRoche was still young for his level last year. The injury and the emergence of DeWitt would push him down a few spots.  Barton looks like the second coming of the current Todd Helton. He's relatively safe, and I have a hard time writing off a super high ceiling for the #2 age-relative-to-league guy last year.

8. Jeff Clement, c, 9.5

9. Brandon Wood, ss, 9.0

10. Reid Brignac, ss, 9.0

I rate Wood as an average deffensively SS. Obviously as a 3b his value takes a hit.

11. Joey Votto, 1b, 9.0

12. Jacoby Ellsbury, cf, 9.0

Two "safe" prospects with limited upside.

13. Carlos Gomez, cf, 9.0-Moves up to #4 with an epiphany and the starting CF job.

14. Carlos Gonzalez, rf, 9.0

15. Chris Marrero, 1b, 9.0

16. Jordan Schafer, cf, 9.0

17. Chin-Lung Hu, ss, 9.0

18. Wladimir Balentien, rf, 9.0

Hu is perhaps the most underrated prospect in baseball at this point, mostly because he will be of very little use to a fantasy team. Balentien's numbers are outstanding. I have since seen him in person and he was pear shaped, which would drop him down a few spots. I'm still going to be higher on him than most. If I rated the pitchers, Cueto, Kershaw, Price, and Bailey would be starting to filter into the list somewhere  around now.

19. Travis Snider, of, 8.5

20. Steven Pearce, of, 8.5

21. Matt LaPorta, of, 8.5

A few guys that have a chance to become true middle of the order boppers. Snider would move up to a 9.0 with the news that he'll start the seaon in AA.

22. Ian Stewart, 3b, 8.5-He's still really young for his level and has a chance to be a very good big leaguer.

23. Fernando Martinez, of, 8.5

24. Elvis Andrus, ss, 8.5

25. Carlos Triunfel, ss, 8.5

Andrus moves up to a 9.0, maybe even a 9.5 with the promotion to AA. All three of these guys are high risk, high reward types.

26. Desmond Jennings, cf, 8.5

27. Matt Wieters, c, 8.5

Jennings is one guy I will admid that I could be underestimating. He's got tools and plate discipline, and that usually turns out well. Still, he's only heading to high A this year, so he's a long long way off. Why is Clement rated so much higher than Wieters? They have basically the same scouting profile, only Clement is two years more advanced and has "proven" that he can hit for power as high as AAA. Basically they have the same ceiling, only Clement is much safer and, in theory, could start producing at the MLB level much sooner.

28. Nate Shierholtz, of, 8.5

29. Scott Moore, 3b, 8.5

30. Chris Davis, 1b, 8.5

That was based on the assumption that Shierholtz was major league ready, which he is. Not a whole lot of upside, but should be a solid outfielder. Still, I'd have to ding him for getting sent to AAA. Moore is just forgotten about, but he has a chance to be a solid MLB power hitter. The power is real for Chris Davis, and it needs to be, given the rest of his limitations.

31. Trevor Plouffe, ss, 8.5

32. Chris Nelson, ss, 8.5

33. Brett Lillibridge, ss, 8.5

These three are really interchangeable. Plouffe is really underrated. His offensive numbers look alright for a SS when you consider is youth and level. He's a medium risk, medium reward type of player. Nelson has the biggest ceiling of the three, but he's also the most risky.

34. Blake Dewitt, 3b, 8.5

35. Eric Campbell, 3b, 8.5

36. Angel Vilalona, 1b, 8.5

That's right, I had Dewitt rated #34 (about #55 overall if you counted the pitchers) heading into the season and drafted him to my fantasy team when the news broke five minutes before the draft that he was the starter[/brag]. He obviously moves up a pantload since the Dodgers showed the confidnece in him to start him at 3b for a division contending club. His early performance will only move him up higher. I'm downplaying some makeup issues with Campbell, assuming that kids mature as they get older. I've seen Big-V in person, and I'm a believer. He's just so far out.

37. Austin Jackson, cf, 8.0-Here we learn a new term, "prospect volatility". Jackson could very well be a top five prospect next year...or he could fall off the chart. AA will tell the truth:)

38. Neil Walker, 3b, 8.0

39. Chase Headley, 3b, 8.0

40. Josh Reddick, of, 8.0

41. Aaron Cunningham, of, 8.0

For those of you who follow me, you know I think Headley is quite a bit overrated. That's not to say he's not a good prospect, I just see him as high risk/meduim reward. Reddick is greatly underrated, mostly because he's not toolsy. Still, his power/contact combination could go a long way. Cunningham comes down with the injury, but I still like his chances of being an MLB OF.

42. Jed Lowrie, ss, 8.0

43. J.R. Towles, c, 8.0

44. Geovany Soto, c, 8.0

Yes, I think Trevor Plouffe has a better chance of being what people think Jed Lowrie is. Lowrie is a classic medium risk/low reward type of player. Soto is a little porkball, and that turned me off. I don't care what the sites say, I stood within ten feet of him, and he looked to be about 5'11" 250. I didn't really like him even before that.

45. Chris Lubanski, of, 8.0

46. Chris Carter (Oak), 1b, 8.0

47. Matt Antonelli, 2b, 8.0

48, German Duran, 2b, 8.0

I have since learned why nobody likes Lubanski, and he would drop off of my list. Carter is a big bopper, and he'll need to be to have any value. Antonelli and Duran are basically the same player statistically. Duran really doesn't have any weaknesses, but lacks a true strenght, while Antonelli has some strengths, but also some weaknesses.

49. Nick Weglarz, of, 8.0

50. Ryan Royster, of, 8.0

I haven't really read a whole lot on these two, so this is based mostly on stats.

51. Kyle Blanks, 1b, 8.0

52. Tyler Colvin, cf, 8.0

Blanks has lots of power and lots of fat. 

53. Mike Moustakas, ss, 8.0

54. Sean Rodriguez, ss, 8.0

55. Josh Rodriguez, ss, 8.0

Lots of risk here, in differnt forms.

56. Taylor Green, 3b, 8.0

57. Billy Rowell, 3b, 8.0

58. Bryan Anderson c, 8.0

 

 

The method:

A prospects value to his team is almost entirely tied up in the value he provides over his first six years of service time. In theory, a player should be paid market value after six year. That's not always the case, but for purposes of this study, we'll assume that to be true.

I took the WARP1 from BP and put it into a formula very similar to MORP to come up with a $ amount for each season played. This helps account for the superstar premium. Negative WARP counts as $0. Then I take the net present value of all those years and rank the players. I used a 15% discount rate, but no season can be counted less than half. That might not be economically sound, but I think it helps us in reaching the desired result.

I go out to six years of service time, regardless of whether the player was traded,  released, or had a year or two of free agency bought out. Usually only a star or superstar will have years of free agency bought out at a discount. I did not count value returned in trades. This is another area where developing one superstar will net a bigger return than multiple above average players of "equal" value.

I did the best I could with service time, but it wasn't always easy to tell when the clock started.

To be eligible for the list a player had to rank in BA's top 100 in 1998 or play in full season ball. I'm sure I missed a few fringe players, but the top half of the list should be accurate.

The Results:

Helton, Berkman, and Halladay are no suprise. They were all top prospects. Helton was ranked #11 that year by BA and #4 with a straight A from John. Halladay was ranked #38 by BA heading into 1998 and would peak at #12 in 1999. Berkman was a 1998 draftee and ranked #64 by BA and would climb as high as #13 in 1999. All three are still superstars. Helton has a good chance at the Hall.

The first big suprise was Hidalgo at #4. Not only did I not think of his career worthy of a top 5 prospect, I thought of him as a minor bust. He is the epitome of why we like guys with tremendous ceilings. His 2000 season alone would have ranked him at #37 overall! He had another big season in 2003 surrounded by a bunch of mediocrity. He was ranked #19 heading into 1998 by BA.

The next group is Javier Vazquez and Freddy Garcia. These were your basic #1 starters that stayed healthy. As I would have expected, only four of the top 20 are pitchers. Neither of these guys were top prospects. Garcia ranked #64 in 1999, and Vazquez came completely out of nowhere.

Moving down the list, Chavez at #7 was already an elite prospect heading into 1998. Beltran was a toolsy outfielder in the low minors that ranked #93 in 1997 and #13 in 1999 but for some reason wasn't ranked in 1998.

Richie Sexson was a miss in 1998. He was a 22yo in AA that hit 31 bombs, was big, and didn't whiff too often at 18.8%. He was not ranked by BA and did not make John's top 50.

Kerry Wood probably had the best stuff on this list, but was undone by injuries.  He still had three star level years plus his 1998 rookie season to rank #13.

Adrian Beltre was a universal top 3 prospect. His phenomanal contract year in 2004 accounts for about half of his value. Another example of why we like the guys with superstar potential.

Rolondo Arrojo was #1 after 1998 and 1999. A good example of why we don't judge prospect lists after two years.

BA's #1 and John's #2, Ben Grieve comes in a #48. He was actually solid for the first four years of his career, but never a superstar.

David Ortiz comes in at #52. He had his biggest years after his service time was up.

Chad Hermansen was probably the biggest bust. He was ranked #13 by both BA and John and produced a whopping $116k in value.

 

Continue reading this post »

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=705

This is an excellent blog post from BA. The cliff's notes are;

When rating a pitching prospect, velocity isn't the only thing, but it matters.

Seven different pitchers have a peak velocity of 100MPH or more. Of those, two did it in the high minors. I'm sure nobody is suprised to see Joba Chamberlain on the list. You might not have expected Felipe Paulino to have hit 102MPH!

I'd say the five best prospects on that list are Paulino, Chamberlain, Kershaw, McGee, and Scherzer.

Once again I am reminded how funky Jeff Samardzija's career has been. 98MPH with a measly 4.1 K/9 in 2007?

Salary information provided by Cot's Baseball Contracts;

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/minnesota-twins_17.html

This is an estimation of what the Twins payroll will look like in 2008, and perhaps beyond. I'll estimate who is going to play where the best I can.

Position, Player, Salary, Service Time
C-Joe Mauer, $6.25MM, 4.0
1b-Justin Morneau, ~$7MM, 3.2
2b, Alexi Casilla, ~$400k, < 1
3b-none
ss-Jason Bartlett, ~$500k, 2.1
lf-up in the air, $500k-$2.5MM
cf-none
rf-Michael Cuddyer, ~$5MM, 4.2
dh-Jason Kubel, ~$1.2MM, 3.0

Bench
UT-Nick Punto, $2.4MM, 5.1
C-Mike Redmond, $0.95MM, 9.1
OF-Jason Tyner, ~$800k, 3.1

Offensive notes; There will be two more bench player, most likely getting paid about $700k combined. Craig Monroe will either take a huge paycut to sign or get non tendered. There is no way the Twins offer arb and get stuck paying $5+MM.

That's about $25.2MM on position players, still short a CF and 3b, and kind of crappy at LF/DH. They will owe Mauer and Morneau $20MM+ in 2009, and Cuddyer ain't gettin' any cheaper as he rolls through his arb years.

Pitching;
SP-Johan Santana, $13.25MM, 7.1
SP-Boof Bonser, $400k, 1.1
SP-Scott Baker, $400k, 1.1
SP-Matt Garza, $400k, < 1
SP-Fransisco Liriano, $500k, 2.0
SP-Kevin Slowey, $400k, <1

RP-Joe Nathan, $6MM, 6.1
RP-Pat Neshek, $400k, 1.1
RP-Matt Guerrier, $900k, 3.1
RP-Juan Rincon, $2.8MM, 5.1
RP-Dennys Reyes, $1MM, 9.0
RP-Jesse Crain, $1.05MM, 3.1

Pitching notes; Santana, Nathan, and Rincon are in their last years before free agency. Nobody is locked in for more than ~$1MM for 2009.

That's about $27.5MM for a pat staff.

The Twins payroll was $71MM last year,
and I've read that it will be around $78MM in 2008. They've got $52.7 in commitments for 2008 leaving them ~$25MM to find a CF, 3b, and LF/DH while looking for an improvement over Kubel at LF/DH.

This team is not bad enough to blow up, but they've got some serious holes. As I look at it, trading Santana is not the answer. They've got to stay the course and sign second tier free agents (Lofton, Lamb) to fill their holes and make a run. I can see trading Nathan to fill one hole, and Rincon as more of a salary dump. You give up Santana, you give up your edge.

After taking a closer look at this team, I think the trade scenarios are even more muddled. The one team that could fill the Twins holes at 3B and CF are the Dodgers with LaRoche and Kemp, but that would be a violent overpay from the Dodgers perspective, and there certianly wouldn't be any other prospects going over. Most likely any deal for Santana is going to be step 1 of a multi step process, but again, I just don't see it getting done.

Final thoughts; This team should plug its holes with cheap options and see what lady variance says about 2008. If they make it, great. If not, deal whatever stopgaps they sign, Santana, and whoever's left from Nathan and Rincon at the deadline. They get less in return, but will have a much better idea of where they stand. Right now, this team is in no-mans land, with regard to win potential.

Given the fact that Morneau and Mauer are not too far from costing $30MM/yr, I doubt it's in the Twins best interest to sign Santana to a 6/120 extension. I can't see him accepting less than that, so his value to the Twins is ~$27MM (~$12MM for 2008 performance and ~$15MM for draft pick compensatioin) for 2008. While they can get way more in total value in a trade, it's unlikely they can replace his $25MM of actual value for 2008.

I do recant my statement that they won't take Crisp back in a deal. He would probably have to be paired with Youkilis and a prospect (Lester/Bowden/Masterson/high ceiling A ball type...etc).  

These are projected #'s based on this year's performance. I made some necessary and reasonable assumptions, which I'll go over later.

3B#1-.281/.356/.502, 27 HR
3B#2-.289/.342/.480, 21 HR
3B#3-.255/.299/.480, 27 HR

It'll be about ten or twelve hours before I get back in front of the computer, so have fun:)

With the promotion of Upton and Jones, they will most likely not be eligible for the 2008 list. I think we may have been spoiled over the last couple of years by the depth of the prospect lists. It seems like 2008 will be somewhat of a down year. The 1-2 punch of Longoria-Bruce is pretty good and there's a good 1-2 pitching punch of Buchholtz-Chamberlain, but it seems like the depth will be lacking. The #3 position prospect looks to be Cameron Maybin. While I'm one of his biggest supporters, I readily admit he's not the same caliber of recent top 5 prospects.  

Here is what the 2008 list would look like if the season ended today. I've taken our midseason top 50 and scratched players that likely won't be eligible. No 2007 draftees are included. The only two from the 2007 draft that jump right out as immidiate top 10 candidates are Price and Wieters, and even they are fringe top 10 types. Other than that, you're looking at the high ceiling high school types that are a long ways off.  

1. Evan Longoria, 3b
   
2. Jay Bruce, of
   
3. Clay Buchholz, rhp
   
4. Clayton Kershaw, lhp
   
5. Cameron Maybin, of
   
6. Fernando Martinez, of
   
7. Colby Rasmus, of
   
8. Brandon Wood, 3b
   
9. Adam Miller, rhp
   
10. Reid Brignac, ss
    
11. Joey Votto, 1b
    
12. Daric Barton, 1b
    
13. Luke Hochevar, rhp
    
14. Joba Chamberlain, rhp
    
15. Andrew McCutchen, of
    
16. Jose Tabata, of
    
17. Eric Hurley, rhp
    
18. Wade Davis, rhp
    
19. Travis Snider, of
    
20. Jake McGee, lhp
    

We had a debate going in this diary where people are somewhat down on Cameron Maybin. In that thread I pointed out that he's a top 15 prospect right now. I think we need to rethink what we think of Maybin, because as I look at the list for next year, I can't see him not in the top 10.

Maybin is ranked 14 on our community list. Of the 13 rated ahead of him, seven are not going to be eligible next year for sure. Two more (Upton and Jones) could get called up very shortly which would likely make them inelgible for next seasons list. Here's what next seasons list could look like; 1. Upton 2. Jones 3. Longoria 4. Bruce 5. Buchholz 6. Kershaw 7. Maybin. That would put Maybin in the 5-7 range overall, depending on how soon Upton and Jones get called up.

Who are the guys behind him that can pass him up? Really, only Martinez, Rasmus, and Wood have realistic shots to pass him up. If Wood gets traded, he likely gets too many at bats to be eligible. If he doesn't, he's a 3B, where he's a fairly ordinary prospect. That leaves Martinez and Rasmus as the only two with a real shot to pass him. Who is he likely to pass? I can't really see Maybin pasing any of those players, although I guess Kershaw is a possibility

Who are the 2007 draftees that will rate ahead of Maybin? I have a hard time believing any of the high school hitters will rank ahead, so we're basically looking at Price and Weiters. Assuming those guys both sign and play reasonably well in their debut (I suppose it doesn't really matter with Price, in fact he's probably better off not sigining and taking the rest), Maybin would be ranked no lower than 11, possibly as high as 6. If that's not an A- prospect, I don't know what is.

To anybody who's seen Chad Cordero pitch this year...
Any word on why his walk rate has spiked?
How is his velocity?
How is his other stuff?
Could his grandmother's cancer be part of the reason for his early season struggles?
His BABIP is pretty high, but it had been insanely low the last two years. Is this just regression to the mean?
His HR/FB is up at 14%, his career hr/fb is pretty normal at 9.6%.

What's the overall outlook for himi between now and the end of the year?