
rglass44
Mar 30, 2008 Dec 04, 2008 74 3555
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RJ Anerson (Tampa, FL): KLAW, join the Rays front office already, we can't get enough great minds....
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:10 PM ET ) My VORE (value over replacement executive) would be pretty low there.
Gotta love an editor that can't speel his own name...
about 3 hours ago
rglass44
13 comments
0 recs
Player Review: Longlorious
Evan Longoria was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2008. He had a great campaign that brought him that honor: helped lead a bottom-dwelling franchise out of the cellar to the World Series, 27 HRs, .272 AVG, 85 RBIs, played "great defense" at 3B, etc. He did all the things sportswriters love to wax poetically about. He also did all the things that statistically-minded bloggers love to exult: got on base at a .343 clip, slugged .531, had a wOBA of .373, saved 7.6 runs above the average 3B with his defense, etc. It truly was a great season by a young player.
Earlier this year, I attempted to put Longoria's season in a historical context by using his runs created per game compared to the league run-scoring environment. He came out looking pretty good. I am, once again, going to attempt to do the same; this time, however, I am going to look at everyone's new favorite batting statistic, wOBA.
To do this, I found the 400 greatest seasons by a 3B using Baseball Reference's season finder for OPS+. I do not generally care too much for this statistic, but it was an easy measure to ensure that I got every season I might be interested in. I calculated wOBA using a "quick and dirty" calculation that was generally spot on with Fangraphs more elaborate calculation. From there I found wOBA+ by dividing the wOBA by the League Average wOBA for the season.
I found that Longoria's season was one of the 10 best seasons ever by a 3B that was 22 or younger. As you can see, Longoria had the 6th best season ever. Two of the season's ahead of him were by Eddie Matthews who is one of the greatest young players ever (he also happens to be one of the three greatest 3B in history).
| First Name | Last name | Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | wOBA | LA wOBA | wOBA+ | BRAA |
| Eddie | Mathews | 1954 | 22 | MLN | NL | 138 | 601 | .433 | .333 | 130 | 52.05 |
| Dick | Allen | 1964 | 22 | PHI | NL | 162 | 708 | .395 | .307 | 129 | 54.17 |
| Eddie | Mathews | 1953 | 21 | MLN | NL | 157 | 681 | .432 | .336 | 128 | 56.69 |
| David | Wright | 2005 | 22 | NYM | NL | 160 | 657 | .395 | .326 | 121 | 39.53 |
| Jim Ray | Hart | 1964 | 22 | SFG | NL | 153 | 625 | .359 | .307 | 117 | 28.40 |
| Evan | Longoria | 2008 | 22 | TBR | AL | 122 | 508 | .373 | .328 | 114 | 20.02 |
| Richie | Hebner | 1969 | 21 | PIT | NL | 129 | 532 | .353 | .313 | 113 | 18.50 |
| Freddie | Lindstrom | 1928 | 22 | NYG | NL | 153 | 687 | .387 | .344 | 112 | 25.46 |
| Scott | Rolen | 1997 | 22 | PHI | NL | 156 | 657 | .372 | .332 | 112 | 23.07 |
| Ron | Santo | 1961 | 21 | CHC | NL | 154 | 655 | .363 | .324 | 112 | 22.42 |
This table is of the 10 greatest seasons ever by a 3B under 23 that qualified for a batting title. Going down the list, Eddie Matthews is an all-time great and Hall of Famer, Dick Allen is an arguably great player that many feel is the best player not in the Hall, David Wright is poised to be a very, very good player for many years to come, and Jim Ray Hart was a good player that never became great. After Longoria, there is another Hall of Famer (Lindstrom), a very good current player that might have been great had it not been for injuries, a good ballplayer on a few postseason teams (Hebner), and another near Hall of Famer (Santo was 5 votes away in 2007). So, in the top 10 we have 3 active players, 2 Hall of Famers, 2 near Hall of Famers, and 2 players ranging from quite good to very good (I know that's only 9, but Matthews is on there twice).
In historical context, Longoria's season was great for a young third-baseman. It was a great start to what will be, hopefully, a great career. Just for fun here are the 10 greatest seasons by a 3B:
| First Name | Last name | Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | wOBA | LA wOBA | wOBA+ | BRAA |
| George | Brett | 1980 | 27 | KCR | AL | 117 | 515 | .472 | .320 | 148 | 68.20 |
| Mike | Schmidt | 1981 | 31 | PHI | NL | 102 | 434 | .456 | .314 | 145 | 53.53 |
| Dick | Allen | 1967 | 25 | PHI | NL | 122 | 540 | .420 | .299 | 140 | 56.74 |
| Chipper | Jones | 2008 | 36 | ATL | NL | 128 | 534 | .454 | .328 | 139 | 58.67 |
| George | Brett | 1985 | 32 | KCR | AL | 155 | 665 | .439 | .317 | 138 | 70.38 |
| Wade | Boggs | 1988 | 30 | BOS | AL | 155 | 719 | .429 | .312 | 137 | 72.94 |
| Wade | Boggs | 1987 | 29 | BOS | AL | 147 | 667 | .447 | .326 | 137 | 70.42 |
| Alex | Rodriguez | 2007 | 31 | NYY | AL | 158 | 708 | .453 | .331 | 137 | 75.08 |
| Joe | Torre | 1971 | 30 | STL | NL | 161 | 707 | .421 | .310 | 136 | 68.53 |
| Alex | Rodriguez | 2005 | 29 | NYY | AL | 162 | 715 | .441 | .326 | 135 | 71.77 |
2 comments | 1 recs
Yanks decline arb on Abreu
Color me surprised. I'm sure Abreu psyched because they may make him an additional few million. That bumps him up on my list of FA DHs.
2 days ago
rglass44
11 comments
0 recs
Player Review: Grant Balfour
As if Joey Gathright for JP Howell wasn't a big enough steal, the Rays pulled off the small trade of the year in 2007 when they got Grant Balfour from Milwaukee for much-maligned starter/reliever Seth McClung. Since the trade, Grant Balfour has run circles around McClung on the field. This year Grant Balfour had a tRA of 2.08 in the bigs and .80 in AAA Durham. Seth McClung, on the other hand, had a tRA of 4.61. Grant Balfour played a huge role in ensuring the Rays win games.
Grant Balfour had a WPA of 2.69. He did this without being on the team for the first 50 games. He was arguably one of the three best relievers in baseball. He was third in tRA for relievers with more than 50 IP. His rate stats illustrate his dominance. Despite throwing his fastball 91.63% of the time, he struck out 12.65 per 9 IP and gave up .46 HR/9. He did walk a few batters (3.70/9 IP), but his tremendous ability to miss bats kept him from getting burnt by it.
All in all, Balfour was great this year. He was the best pitcher on the staff. If he had been there all year, then I have little doubt he would have been the team MVP (at least in my eyes) and led us to a win or two more. The intense Aussie dominated this year, and I hope he comes close to matching it next year. One would think that would be tough since he is primarily a one-pitch pitcher. Jonathon Papelbon and Mariano Rivera, the two relievers that finished ahead of Balfour in tRA, are essentially one-pitch pitchers as well. Rivera throws his cutter 82% of the time, and Papelbon throws his fastball 82% of the time. So, if Balfour could work off his slider just a little bit more, then he might be able to sustain this kind of production into the future.
11 comments | 0 recs
Player Review: JP Howell
JP Howell is my team MVP. Some may find this strange, some may disagree, and some may think I'm crazy. Why is JP Howell the MVP? Why is a middle reliever with 3 saves and 2 blown saves the MVP? Because, in my opinion, he was one of the 2 or 3 players that added the most wins to this team while embodying the biggest part of the team metamorphosis from 67 game winner to 97 game winner.
In 2007, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays had the worst bullpen in baseball. Baseball Prospectus even went as far to say that the bullpen cost the team 10 wins. 10 wins! They claimed it was the worst bullpen in their entire database (since 1959), and no other team came within 15 runs of that abomination (link). A league average bullpen, in theory, would have made the Devil Rays a 77 win team in 2007.
This year, however, was another story. The bullpen, anchored by Howell and Balfour, was probably the best in baseball. The Rays bullpen had the highest WPA of any team (9.30). In ERA and WHIP (granted these are not great measures of a bullpen) they finished 5th and second, respectively. The bullpen had the highest WXRL of any team in baseball. Different statistics give you different results, but I would take the bullpen with the highest WPA any day of the week.
Back to JP. I contend that JP Howell had the biggest effect on the bullpen's growth from worst (ever) to first and, in turn, the team's same turnaround. He had the highest WPA of any pitcher on the team (3.33), he was number one among non-closers in the AL in WPA, he led the bullpen in innings pitched, he led the bullpen in strike-outs, he was second in tRA (3.68), and he was third in appearances.
JP Howell was Maddon's go to guy at out of the bullpen. He could come in to face the tough lefty or to get four or even six outs in high-intensity situations. He embodied the bullpen by committee that worked so well for this team. Why was JP so much more successful than previous years as a starter?
Coming out of the bullpen allowed Howell to leave it all on the mound. His fastball jumped from 82-83 MPH on average to 86-87 on average. His slider, changeup, and cutter added a few ticks on the radar gun as well. He started to throw more curveballs (from 17% of the time last year to 25%) and sliders (from 5.9% to 11.6%) sacrificing his changeup (from 23% to 12%). This change in approach is probably due mainly to his facing more lefties than ever, but also somewhat his "devil may care" approach out of the bullpen.
As a result of his increased velocity and change in approach, JP got more swinging strikes than ever (from around 20% to 26% this year). This increased his K/9 to a career high of 9.27 from 6.69, 7.02, and 8.65 in his previous stints in the bigs. His HR/9 also dipped down to .60, which was a considerable drop from his 1.41 from last year. While his walk rate was right around his career norms, it hurts a lot less to walk people out of the bullpen than it does as a starter.
JP Howell was great this year. He was the second best pitcher in our bullpen. He pitched 89 1/3 innings in what was primarily crunch time. He added more to the effort to win games than anyone on the team, but Carlos Pena. All of these things contributed greatly to the Rays historic turnaround. All of these things exhibited the historic turnaround in the bullpen. In my opinion, all of these things made him the most valuable player to the Rays success this year. Not to mention the fact that he seems like the coolest dude on the team.
JP, this bud's for you!
3 comments | 0 recs
Player Review: AKI AKI
Akinori Iwamura's most beneficial move to the team this year was learning to play 2B. By doing that, the Rays were able to use Longoria at third and keep Aki's contribution. Last year, the Rays 2B were BJ Upton (48 games), Brendan Harris (45), Ty Wigginton (39), Josh Wilson (21), Jorge Velandia (11), Jorge Cantu (1), and Aki (1). This 2B platoon provided a good bat (.296/.350/.485/.835), but a horrible glove (-15 runs). Aki, on the other hand, was about average defensively (.1 runs) and about average defensively (wOBA of .338 and wOBA+ of 101). In other words, Aki was pretty much a hair better than average.
Aki's slash-line of .274/.349/.380 may not be near as good as the 2B platoon the Rays had last year, but it is in line with what the average AL 2B produced at the plate this year (.282 /339/.410). This kind of production coupled with his glovework made him the Rays fifth most valuable position player this year (TV of 27 R).
Another aspect of Aki's game that added value was his ability to see a lot of pitches.He ranked first on the team and ninth in the AL in pitches seen per plate appearance. Like Upton, Aki rarely goes out of the zone (18.2%, 7th in the AL).
All in all, AKi had a good year. He was solid at 2B, playing in all but 10 games, and at the plate. He saw a lot of pitches out of the leadoff spot, which supposedly helps his teammates in letting them get a look at the pitcher. Aki is looking like a tremendous steal at about $4 million per year (with the posting and club option). That kind of money for an average up-the-middle player is very nice. Throw in the fact that he increases the team's international appeal and the liklihood that his 2B skills improve, and he is a great bargain.
10 comments | 0 recs
Dioner Navarro: The worst baserunner in baseball
Rich Lederer takes a look at Bill James' baserunning section in the 2009 Bill James Handbook. Navarro rates as the worst. Pretty interesting write up, too.
17 days ago
rglass44
4 comments
0 recs
Player Review: Ben Zobrist
Last year was the best year of Ben Zobrist's professional career. Not only did he tear it up in Durham to the tune of .366/.471/.577/1.048 (wOBA of 135) in 20 games (making it impossible for the Rays to keep him in AAA), but also had his most successful tenure in the bigs. Zobrist was very, very good in his 62 games with the big club this summer; his slash line was .253/.339/.505/.844 with 12 HRs. He was third on the team in wOBA (.367) of all players with more than 200 PAs.
So, the question is "Why was Zobrist so much more effective this year, than in years past?" Well, the simple answer is a lot more of his fly-balls left the yard. In his two previous big league stints (52 and 31 games, respectively), Zobrist's HR/FB% were 4.3% and 3.6%. This year his HR/FB% was 17.4%. He essentially went from Jason Bartlett territory to Evan Longoria. Is this change legit? Looking at Zobrist this year, he did look bigger. He looked stronger. How much difference can we expect that to make, though?
Another reason why Zobrist was more successful was he exhibited the patience that made me like him as a minor leaguer when we traded for him. His BB-rate had never been below 12% in the minors, and it was 3% and 5.2% during his two previous times up. This year it was a more typical 11.2%. He swung at less pitches out of the zone (17.8% versus 26.7 and 23.3%) and swung at more pitches in the zone (61.8% against 59.7% and 60.9%). As a result, he made more contact and firmer contact.
So, Zobrist's great year was a mix of some-part luck and some-part improvement or skill. The question we will likely have answered in the future is "How much was each?"
33 comments | 0 recs
The Free Agent DH Market
In a little under an hour, the MLB Free Agency period will begin. Amidst the millions and millions and years and years of contracts, (hopefully) one lucky fellow will be called upon to serve in the Rays army as the designated batsman. After taking a look at the players available in the market, I put together a list of "DHs" and their respective Bill James' projections. I also added wOBA, so RJ doesn't beat me over the head for not using properly sanctioned statistics.
50 comments | 0 recs
Swisher to Yanks
You have got to be kidding me. This is redic. We could have given them less than Talbot for him?
Marquez last year as a 24 YO in AAA. 3.68/1.49 K/BB, 4.85 tRA*.
This sucks.
21 days ago
rglass44
85 comments
0 recs
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