When can I take numbers an older minor leaguer puts up for real?

I will use a specific example of a player but looking for overall comments.

Dave Mckae went undrafted as a 22 YO senior.

Signed with the Giants and started in low A as a 23 year old where in 67 IP's he had a 2.4 ERA 11.15 k/9 and 1.07 WHIP with a 4.8 k/BB.  (Clearly too old for that competition so you discard the numbers)

Next year at 24 he was in A ball and threw 85 innings. 1.8 ERA, 7.5 k/9 and 4.1 k/BB ratio. (still much too old for competition so you discard the numbers)

Now at 25 he started the year in A (California league). 65 IP, 1.93 ERA 8k/9 and 3.5 K/BB ratio. (still seeing a 25 YO in A ball but begining to wonder)

A month ago he was promoted to AA in 5 starts he has averaged 7IP per start. A 1.47 ERA, 26k's and 3 BB's. --

Is these numbers continue at AA this year should we pay attention or is the age factor too much to over come?
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Dave%2520McKae&pos=P&sid=milb& t=p_pbp&pid=489549

With Kerry Wood signing I think the bullpen "COULD" (yes that is a big COULD) be very strong.

At the same time the obviously closing candidates all have real weaknesses.

So my question is who closes in 2007?

Kerry Wood
Bobby Howry
Ryan Dempster

Does Pinella have a history of the comitte aproach as that seems the most likely result.

Poll

Who starts as closer in 2007?

31%

Ryan Dempster

29 votes

5%

FA sigining still to come

5 votes

6%

Committee

6 votes

3%

Other

3 votes

30%

Kerry Wood

28 votes

23%

Bobby Howry

22 votes

93 votes | Poll has closed

I have notice 2 thinks recently in a keeper league I am.

1. SB's are over valued
   
2. Predicting future SB leaders is tough.

Oviously some are easy to predict as the come up. Reyes for one although he was so bad lst year leading off people thought he may lose it.

So my question for the group is what Minor leaguers are going to bust out and be SB threats in the future?

Not sure of Scout.com track record on prospects but I found list interesting.

http://scout.scout.com/a.z?s=243&p=9&c=12&nid=287&lnid=287&pid=88&yr=2006

A few surprises:
Sowers # 6
Felix pie # 25
Eric Patterson #49
Javier Herrera # 50  (despite missing yet another chunk of time.

Interested to hear others thoughts.

May 1, 2006 reading the Prospect Hot Sheet on BA they let Jason Hirsh have it. (Rightfully so)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/hotsheet/261181.html

At that point he had given up  -- 20 runs on 26 hits in 24 innings ---

What has he done since?

74 IP and only 8 Earned Runs.

His full year stats include a 2.56 ERA in the hitter friendly PCL.
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jason%20Hirsh&pos=P&sid=milb&a mp;t=p_pbp&pid=444865

Yet as I never see his name mentioned with the likes of: Pelfry, Billingesly or any of the other "elite" prospects.

Not advocating that he belongs in that group but my question is why not?

So the inspiration for this diary is Jed Morris (Oakland's other AA catcher). But really do not mean for this to be about him, but more of getting people thoughts on catcher development in general.

I think it is generally accepted that catchers take longer to develop, but when is too late for them?

Under normal circumstances a hitter dominating single A at 25 or AA at 26 would be ignored but what type of developmental break do catchers get.

Anyone have info on when catchers average age is when they make it to the bigs?
What is an apropriate age to league for a catcher or do the get no special breaks?
---
For those of you interested here are Jed Morris'
stats
3 years in high A with OPS of 829, 737, 939
First year in AA 922 OPS
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/jed-morris.shtml

As far as I have seen he has never even ranked as an A's top 30 prospect.

Hey Folks. Here are a few of people I am hoping will fall to us comments are appreciated and very needed.
THis is For round 2 and 3.
Chad Tracy    c    Jr.    R-R    Pepperdine
Mark Hamilton    1b    Jr.    L-L    Tulane
Jeff Locke    lhp    Sr.    L-L    Kennett HS
Steven Wright    rhp    Jr.    R-R    Hawaii
Matt Long    rhp    Sr.    R-R    Miami (Ohio)
Milton Loo    3b/ss    So.    R-R    Yavapai JC
Brandon Belt    lhp    Sr.    L-L    Hudson HS
Alex White    rhp/3b    Sr.    R-R    D.H. Conley
Josh Butler    rhp    Jr.    R-R    San Diego
Trevor Cahill    rhp    Sr.    R-R    Vista HS
Cory Rasmus    rhp    Sr.    R-R    Russell HS

Also any round 4-5 guys I should target.
2 catchers I like in round 4 are:
Jordan Newton    c    Jr.    R-R    Western Kentucky
Matt McBride    c    Jr.    R-R    Lehigh

I never thought I would see Delmon Young ranked by anyone as the # 3 prospect let alone the #3 OF prospect in baseball.

Dan Perry who I have mixed feelings on (love his writting disagree with him a bunch) has him as 3rd best OF prospect.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5616182

Has his stock really fallen that far or is this more of Milledge learning patience and Upton crusing in pro debut?

Yep thats right John Baker is back
http://scout.scout.com/a.z?s=304&p=9&c=2&cid=486335&nid=1822234&fhn=1&refid= 4742

Appears the marlins designated him to make room for Olivo and he was claimed by the A's.

I guess this is not the biggest news as Baker looked less than impressive last season but more curious what everyones thoughts are on way minor leaguers are treated. One thing when you are making 300,000+ a year to be asked to constantly move with basically no say, but this seems brutal. (yes I know Baker did not actually move but the thoery of it I question).

I would be interested in peoples thoughts.

So every offseason I try to assemble a 25 man roster that I think would be able to compete using only free-agents, and within a budget of what I estimate will be at about the league's median salary.

Last years median salary (Ok not exactly median but the 15th highest salary) was the Tigers at 68.9 million. With all the new money around from new contracts and deals I think median salary will be about 74 million this year.

It is kind of a fun exersice I use to pass the time.

Here is my list at present (using only people who have already signed). I used the average amount they will recieve over life of contract.

Hopefully as more people sign I can make some improvements as I have 3 bench positions to fill and only .3 left.

SP    Loazia        7.1
SP    Burnett        11
SP    Paul Byrd   7
SP    Moyer        5.5
SP    Etherton        .4

RP    Danny Graves    0.65
RP    Rincon            1.5
RP    Witasick    1.4
RP    Bradford    1.4
RP    Chris Hammond    0.8
RP    Dotel            2.25
Closer    Jose Mesa       2.1

1B    Mientkiewicz    1.85
2B    Nomar Garcipara    6   
3B    Bill Mueller    4.75
SS    Pokey Reese    .8
RF    Rondell White    3.25
LF    Matt Lawton    0.4
CF    Jose Cruz Jr    2.9
C    Ramon Hernandez    6.9

C    Sandy Alomar    0.65
OF    Bernie Williams    1.5
IF   Miguel Cario 1    
Utility       
OF       
    Total            71.1

Interested to see other peoples lists or thoughts.