
mrkupe
Mar 18, 2008 Aug 06, 2008 46 1927
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The Mock Draft and Accountability
With the 2008 mock draft fast approaching, I thought it'd be fun to go back and take a look at our own previous efforts and offer a candid self-assessment. The rules are simple: if you've taken part in a mock draft before, post your picks and then your thoughts.
I did not take part in the 2007 draft, but I did draft in 2005 and 2006 for the White Sox. Here's 2005:
1---15---Wade Townsend, RHP
3---95---Josh Lindblom, RHP, Harrison HS, West Lafayette, Ind.
4---125--Chris Robinson, C, University of Illinois
5---155---Josh Zeid, RHP, New Haven CT HS
My thoughts: Not a great go at it for me, although I was a bit of a newbie at the time to analyzing draft prospects. Townsend has sucked, although in fairness he also blew his arm out almost immediately after signing. Lindblom went unsigned by the Astros in real-life and went on to college. He's flourished as a reliever this year and projects to go in the first several rounds as a hard-throwing closer candidate. Robinson was drafted by the Tigers and then traded to the Cubs. Looks like his bat has stagnated in Double A. Zeid went on to college at Vanderbilt and then Tulane, but has been wracked with injuries and has barely pitched. So 2 years later, one guy who looks like he's still a solid prospect and a bunch of organizational fodder. Eh.
2006 went a bit better for me:
- Adrian Cardenas, SS, Florida HS
- Cory Rasmus, RHP, Alabama HS
- Joe Benson, C-OF, Illinois HS
- Charles Brewer, RHP, Arizona HS
- Ryan Jackson, SS, Florida HS
My thoughts: I was basically down to Chris Tillman and Cardenas for the pick at 29. Tillman went at #18 IIRC in the mock making it an easy decision for me. Cardenas has moved to 2B but looks awfully good so far. Stock rapidly rising, although he may ultimately slot in better as a corner OF from a defensive standpoint. Rasmus hurt his shoulder and hasn't pitched in the last couple of years, but given his youth and the Braves' ability to bring their pitchers along there's still time for something. Benson was raw when drafted and still raw now, but hasn't been a disappointment. He's going to take some time to develop but the talent assessment appears to have been accurate enough. Brewer went unsigned as an 18th round pick and honored his commitment at UCLA - he'd probably pitch better as a pro but he wouldn't go 135 today. Jackson, glove guy with questionable bat, went on to the University of Miami. He didn't do much last year but has started to blossom offensively in 2007. He'd probably project as a high floor low ceiling utility guy were he in the draft today, but that's still a valuable prospect and there are plenty of guys like that who go as early as the sandwich round.
Your turn.
25 comments | 4 recs
Revisiting the mrkupe Top 25 Pitchers (of Doom)
Some months back (December 28 to be exact), I posted a list of who I thought to be the top 25 pitching prospects in the game. It's very early in the evaluation process, having had only spring training and the first month of the season to see how our young arms have developed, but nonetheless I think it's interesting to see where I was right and where I was (ever-so-dreadfully) wrong. I think it's also fun to look at the guys that various other posters called me out on, for what they perceived to be an aggressive appreciation or depreciation of value. Finally, it serves as a quick "where are they now" reference guide for those who haven't paid much attention in the early going. My comments are posted beneath each name.
- Buchholz, Clay
Shaky spring training, but looks good if slightly erratic in early going. Continues to have occasional issues with falling in love with secondary pitches, but nothing that maturation will not fix. Forecast has not changed, looks great. A 4.08 ERA for a rookie pitching out of Fenway in the AL East is outstanding, just ask Daisuke. Stock: Holding
- Chamberlain, Joba
Still pitching great in relief, stuff looks awesome as ever. Not showing us anything we didn't already know but not really his fault. Continue to be very high on him, will be interesting to see how he translates his performance into a starting role at some point. Stock: Holding
- Price, David
Looked very impressive in spring training, now currently out with forearm strain. Not sure if this is just an organization being extremely cautious (as the Rays tend to be with their pitchers) or something to be concerned about. I think the good balances out the bad here for the moment. Stock: Holding (or perhaps a slight dropoff if you're on the more cautious side concerning injuries)
- Kershaw, Clayton
Became the toast of spring training by sticking in major league camp all of March. Made Sean Casey wish Youtube had never been invented. Now having few difficulties in Double A and beating down the door to the majors. He ranks behind only Buchholz on this list, and one can make a fair argument for him as No. 1. Combines a Mark Buehrle approach with a Barry Zito (Cy Young edition) curveball and Johan Santana fastball, which should give him a very good chance to make an immediate impact upon reaching the majors. Stock: Rising
- Porcello, Rick
Aggressively sent to Florida State League, looks about as good as one can hope for with only some minor hiccups. Frontline starter stuff with nearly unheard of poise for such a young arm. Has jumped another notch or two . . .Grade A prospect to be sure, but still 4th best prospect on this list. Stock: Rising - should be interesting to see whether people prefer Porcello or Kershaw as the top pitching prospect still in the minors
- Kennedy, Ian
In the process of falling apart against ML competition, not making me look real good. Probably needed at least a couple of months of consolidation time in the minors and perhaps more. Needs to reassert himself, may have to do it in the minors. Still like his chances of being at least a solid ML pitcher. Stock: Falling sharply but due to aggressive ranking and high expectations for a guy in his second year of pro ball more than anything else
- Cueto, Johnny
Extremely aggressive approach for a young and very live arm has benefited him well against MLers not familiar with his stuff. Homer prone but great peripherals. Transitioning well all things considered and just needs some time to refine his approach. I think he fits just fine here, no higher and no lower. Stock: Rising slightly
- Gonzalez, Gio
Pitching well but not exceptionally so in Triple A. Needs to refine his command against advanced batters but based on previous track record of steady improvement I have confidence in this. Note only one HR given up in 25 innings of PCL work. Should be a quality LH starter with the potential to be more than that. Mildly concerned that he may be leveling off but solid repertoire across the board means he should contribute in the majors in a meaningful way. Stock: Holding.
- McDonald, James
ERA is ugly in the Southern League but peripherals look sharp as ever, and he's been hit-unlucky. Something of a work in progress but his combination of throwing strikes and solid stuff makes me think he could be a good one. Makes me think a lot of Joe Blanton, which can be a good or a bad thing depending on your perspective. Stock: Falling slightly
- Davis, Wade
Continuing the transition from thrower to pitcher, Ks down but so are the walks. Overall line would look much better if not for Matt LaPorta. May need some time to put everything together, but he's in one of the better organizations for that and he could be excellent in time. Worst case health permitting is that he eats a ton of innings at the major league level with consistently solid performance. Best case is that he's a No. 2 starter, but I'm skeptical of projecting him as a true ace type. Stock: Holding
- Horne, Alan
Has only pitched twice this year in Triple A, currently out with a biceps tendon tear in pitching arm. Looked okay in what little we saw of him but obviously this doesn't do much to mitigate concerns about his ability to avoid injury. I still like him as a guy with good stuff and improving command, but some caution should be exercised here. Stock: Falling
- Morales, Franklin
When first writing this list, I had a comment next to his name: "will either post a 3.50 or a 6.00 ERA this year." Well . . .yeah. His mechanics are falling apart. Velocity has been all over the place and his control has regressed. Got destroyed in the majors before recent demotion. Still has promise if he can figure things out, but March and April have shown just how far he away he is from being a consistent major league contributor. Stock: Falling like a rock
- Mulvey, Kevin
Looking great in Triple A, striking out plenty of batters with good control. Appears to be a nice bet to be at least a #3 starter in the majors. A finesse guy with markedly better-than-finesse-guy stuff, with developing confidence in that stuff. Hard to argue with anything about this guy, has responded very well to aggressive rate of promotion and has passed through every challenge with success. A very good prospect who might not get his due until he settles in at the major league level. Stock: Rising
- McGee, Jacob
Has only one truly bad start on the year, but still a work in progress. Needs to harness his stuff - lots of walks and homers are not an inspiring combination . Note that while he strikes out plenty of RH batters, righties nonetheless hit him pretty well. The current version of the epitome of the high risk, high reward pitching prospect. Stock: Holding
- Adenhart, Nick
Just promoted to the majors after 31 sterling innings in the PCL. Nibbles too much but stuff is very good across the board, as anyone who has seen him can attest. Starting to put things together, and I think the peripheral numbers will come around with good health and experience. Too smart and savvy to beat himself in the long-term. Stock: Rising
- De Los Santos, Fautino
Striking out lots of batters in the Cal League but overall numbers are mediocre otherwise. Not terribly worried as the Cal League is especially hard for a raw arm who knows only one speed: hard. Hard not to be optimistic about a guy with solid heat and a sick slider. Makes me think a lot of Juan Cruz. Stock: Holding, but don't ask for too much too soon out of this one
- Parra, Manny
Having adjustment issues in the majors, but then again 25 relatively crappy innings in the majors shouldn't count too much against him. Should be an above-average LH starter in time. Biggest concern would be that injury-prone tendencies kick in and interrupt his development at this crucial juncture. Stock: Holding
- Bailey, Homer
Looked terrible in the spring, but pitching well to start the year in Triple A with much better control. Concerns about altering his mechanical approach with different pitches may take time or a promotion to bubble back to the surface. My guess is that he's still going to need a fair amount of consolidation time in the majors, but I'm more optimistic about him now than I was before the season. Stock: Rising
- Anderson, Brett
Having few troubles with the Cal League as a 20 y/o, advanced approach and multiple present plus pitches suggest that he'll be ready to move up a level shortly. Does virtually everything you could want in a young pitcher other than burn up the radar gun, but different from many pitchers of that mold in that he already has pitches that will hold up against more advanced batters. A guy for both scouts and statheads to appreciate, one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. Stock: Rising rapidly
- Cortes, Dan
Made three decent starts in Double A before hitting the DL with a left quad strain. Should be a solid innings eater at the major league level with the potential to be above-average. Not a good candidate for aggressive promotion but a guy who has a nice track record of steady improvement. Nothing to complain about here, but not much to say either. Stock: Holding
- Alderson, Tim
Aggressively promoted to Cal League as 19 y/o, holding his own and then some. Quickly asserting himself as sabermetric darling due to very advanced command and performance record. Turning himself into one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, but some restraint is advised. His stuff is solid but not stellar across the board as a SP, and there is a fairly good chance that he will level out in higher levels of the minors. A high floor No. 3 SP is most likely, may be a No. 2 but we may have to wait and see how his stuff rates at higher levels. Stock: Rising sharply
- Cahill, Trevor
Long-time personal favorite is making himself known with outstanding performance in the Cal League. I thought he'd look solid this year and then break out next year, but improved command of breaking stuff is letting him carve up A ball batters. Combination of athleticism, intelligence, and solid stuff across the board makes him a pretty good one. Stuff suggests a No. 3 starter but intangibles make me think he's a good candidate to pitch beyond that. Stock: Rising
- Miller, Adam ("to be a pitching prospect, one must, in fact, pitch")
Finally pitching again in Triple A after missing much of the spring with finger injury. Has looked good in the early going but nobody has ever doubted his ability to look good in spurts. Probably should get a chance to contribute for the ML team by the middle of the season assuming he stays healthy, but frankly heavy skepticism about that assumption is warranted. I don't think we're seeing anything in Miller that we didn't already know, and the questions we have can only be answered with time. Stock: Holding
- Robertson, Tyler
Sickels favorite pitching well in Florida State League, with lots of strikeouts and groundballs. Putting up a sub-3 ERA despite terrible luck on balls in play. Needs to refine his command but hard to argue with what he's doing. Should probably spend most/all of the year in A ball for his own good and then move up quickly after that. Stock: Rising
- Volstad, Chris
Former first round pick is starting to put everything together. Has always been underrated by sabermetric community due to heavy reliance on outstanding sinker rather than his quality secondary offerings. Maturation has led to improvement in curveball and an increased willingness to use it, contributing to steady rise in strikeout rate. A smart pitcher who does almost everything very well and should only get better with time. Now one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, and a great example of why one should remember the minors are about development rather than statistical performance. Stock: Rising sharply
31 comments | 4 recs
The mrkupe Top 25 Pitchers (of doom)
Greetings and salutations. I've spent the last two months under a huge pile of schoolwork trying to finish up my degree, and it's only been recently that I've gotten to really focus on things that I like to write about, like minor league baseball.
I decided to jump back into the fray by introducing my own top 50 prospects list. However, I'm pulling a John Sickels on this one and dividing those 50 prospects into two lists of 25, one comprised of pitchers and the other of position players. I would go into the reasons for that, but I think John has elaborated in the past on using such a methodology, and quite frankly I agree with it. While you could not combine the two lists to get my exact top 50 prospects (more than 25 hitters in that top 50, most likely), I think this system tends to display my feelings about players more accurately. I'm posting the first list of 25, that of pitchers, right now. I'm almost finished with the second list, but am going to hold it for another day or two.
A few house rules:
- Buchholz, Clay
- Chamberlain, Joba
- Price, David
- Kershaw, Clayton
- Porcello, Rick
- Kennedy, Ian
- Cueto, Johnny
- Gonzalez, Gio
- McDonald, James
- Davis, Wade
- Horne, Alan
- Morales, Franklin
- Mulvey, Kevin
- McGee, Jacob
- Adenhart, Nick
- De Los Santos, Fautino
- Parra, Manny
- Bailey, Homer
- Anderson, Brett
- Cortes, Dan
- Alderson, Tim
- Cahill, Trevor
- Miller, Adam ("to be a pitching prospect, one must, in fact, pitch")
- Robertson, Tyler
- Volstad, Chris
43 comments | 0 recs
2008 community prospect ratings: Ross Detwiler
This thread is for discussion of Ross Detwiler, LHP, Washington Nationals. Links to his minor league statistical record:
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=33952
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Ross%20Detwiler&pos=P&sid=milb& ;t=p_pbp&pid=446321
http://firstinning.com/players/Ross-Detwiler-a/
In addition, here is a link to his Baseball Cube entry, which includes his college statistical record:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/D/Ross-Detwiler.shtml
Thread will be open for at least 48 hours. Keep in mind that you get one vote and only one vote, so hold off on clicking that little button until you've definitely made up your mind. Also remember that your vote represents your opinion of the prospect in question - NOT that of John Sickels, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Project Prospect, or anybody else you can think of who might be capable of picking 100 names at random out of a hat.
I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:
the numerical ratings should follow this scale:
10 bona fide blue-chip grade A stud
9
8 great prospect, somebody you'd be okay with as the jewel of your favorite team's system
7
6 good prospect, but not among the best in the game
5
4 marginal prospect, but somebody with a pulse
3
2 organizational filler--just a warm body to fill out a minor league roster
1
the rating should be a combination of the player's possible outcomes and his likelihood of reaching those outcomes. in other words, consider both "upside" and "safety" when making your decision--though how you weight them is entirely up to you.
for example, you could give somebody an 8 because you feel he is sure to be a pretty good player, but you could also give somebody else an 8 because even though he has a higher chance to flame out, he also has a chance to be really special. a 5 might be a guy with a decent chance to be a regular, or it might be somebody with a pretty big upside who you are just not very confident will actually ever make it.
6 comments | 0 recs
2008 community prospect ratings: Fernando Martinez
This thread is for discussion of Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets. Links to his minor league statistical record:
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=30926
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Fernando%20Martinez&pos=OF&sid=mil b&t=p_pbp&pid=494686
http://firstinning.com/players/Fernando-Martinez-a/
Thread will be open for at least 48 hours. Keep in mind that you get one vote and only one vote, so hold off on clicking that little button until you've definitely made up your mind. Also remember that your vote represents your opinion of the prospect in question - NOT that of John Sickels, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Project Prospect, or anybody else you can think of who might be capable of picking 100 names at random out of a hat.
I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:
the numerical ratings should follow this scale:
10 bona fide blue-chip grade A stud
9
8 great prospect, somebody you'd be okay with as the jewel of your favorite team's system
7
6 good prospect, but not among the best in the game
5
4 marginal prospect, but somebody with a pulse
3
2 organizational filler--just a warm body to fill out a minor league roster
1
the rating should be a combination of the player's possible outcomes and his likelihood of reaching those outcomes. in other words, consider both "upside" and "safety" when making your decision--though how you weight them is entirely up to you.
for example, you could give somebody an 8 because you feel he is sure to be a pretty good player, but you could also give somebody else an 8 because even though he has a higher chance to flame out, he also has a chance to be really special. a 5 might be a guy with a decent chance to be a regular, or it might be somebody with a pretty big upside who you are just not very confident will actually ever make it.
10 comments | 0 recs
2008 community prospect ratings: Reid Brignac
This thread is for discussion of Reid Brignac, SS, Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Links to his minor league statistical record:
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=1716
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Reid%20Brignac&pos=SS&sid=milb& ;t=p_pbp&pid=458582
http://firstinning.com/players/Reid-Brignac-a/
Thread will be open for at least 48 hours. Keep in mind that you get one vote and only one vote, so hold off on clicking that little button until you've definitely made up your mind. Also remember that your vote represents your opinion of the prospect in question - NOT that of John Sickels, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Project Prospect, or anybody else you can think of who might be capable of picking 100 names at random out of a hat.
I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:
the numerical ratings should follow this scale:
10 bona fide blue-chip grade A stud
9
8 great prospect, somebody you'd be okay with as the jewel of your favorite team's system
7
6 good prospect, but not among the best in the game
5
4 marginal prospect, but somebody with a pulse
3
2 organizational filler--just a warm body to fill out a minor league roster
1
the rating should be a combination of the player's possible outcomes and his likelihood of reaching those outcomes. in other words, consider both "upside" and "safety" when making your decision--though how you weight them is entirely up to you.
for example, you could give somebody an 8 because you feel he is sure to be a pretty good player, but you could also give somebody else an 8 because even though he has a higher chance to flame out, he also has a chance to be really special. a 5 might be a guy with a decent chance to be a regular, or it might be somebody with a pretty big upside who you are just not very confident will actually ever make it.
3 comments | 0 recs
2008 community prospect ratings: Chris Tillman
This thread is for discussion of Chris Tillman, RHP, Seattle Mariners. Links to his minor league statistical record:
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=31507
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Chris%20Tillman&pos=P&sid=milb& ;t=p_pbp&pid=501957
http://firstinning.com/players/Christopher-Tillman-a/
Thread will be open for at least 48 hours. Keep in mind that you get one vote and only one vote, so hold off on clicking that little button until you've definitely made up your mind. Also remember that your vote represents your opinion of the prospect in question - NOT that of John Sickels, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Project Prospect, or anybody else you can think of who might be capable of picking 100 names at random out of a hat.
I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:
the numerical ratings should follow this scale:
10 bona fide blue-chip grade A stud
9
8 great prospect, somebody you'd be okay with as the jewel of your favorite team's system
7
6 good prospect, but not among the best in the game
5
4 marginal prospect, but somebody with a pulse
3
2 organizational filler--just a warm body to fill out a minor league roster
1
the rating should be a combination of the player's possible outcomes and his likelihood of reaching those outcomes. in other words, consider both "upside" and "safety" when making your decision--though how you weight them is entirely up to you.
for example, you could give somebody an 8 because you feel he is sure to be a pretty good player, but you could also give somebody else an 8 because even though he has a higher chance to flame out, he also has a chance to be really special. a 5 might be a guy with a decent chance to be a regular, or it might be somebody with a pretty big upside who you are just not very confident will actually ever make it.
5 comments | 0 recs
2008 community prospect ratings: Brandon Jones
This thread is for discussion of Brandon Jones, OF, Atlanta Braves. Links to his minor league statistical record:
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=7415
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Brandon%20Jones&pos=OF&sid=milb&am p;t=p_pbp&pid=447761
http://firstinning.com/players/Brandon-Jones-a/
Thread will be open for at least 48 hours. Keep in mind that you get one vote and only one vote, so hold off on clicking that little button until you've definitely made up your mind. Also remember that your vote represents your opinion of the prospect in question - NOT that of John Sickels, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Project Prospect, or anybody else you can think of who might be capable of picking 100 names at random out of a hat.
I'll now repost jpahk's comments concerning the rating scale:
the numerical ratings should follow this scale:
10 bona fide blue-chip grade A stud
9
8 great prospect, somebody you'd be okay with as the jewel of your favorite team's system
7
6 good prospect, but not among the best in the game
5
4 marginal prospect, but somebody with a pulse
3
2 organizational filler--just a warm body to fill out a minor league roster
1
the rating should be a combination of the player's possible outcomes and his likelihood of reaching those outcomes. in other words, consider both "upside" and "safety" when making your decision--though how you weight them is entirely up to you.
for example, you could give somebody an 8 because you feel he is sure to be a pretty good player, but you could also give somebody else an 8 because even though he has a higher chance to flame out, he also has a chance to be really special. a 5 might be a guy with a decent chance to be a regular, or it might be somebody with a pretty big upside who you are just not very confident will actually ever make it.
4 comments | 0 recs
Ross Detweiler Called Up
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=txnationalsmoves&prov=st&type=lgns
I'll be the first to say THEY'RE RUSHING HIM, HIS CAREER IS OVER!!! Or something.
I have to admit that I'm not a huge fan of Detweiler, but I always find it interesting to see how the stuff of pitchers coming almost straight out of college plays against major league level competition.
Any reactions? Personally I often like the idea of getting a guy acclimated to the big leagues from a mental standpoint, but I'm not sure that Detweiler profiles as a good candidate for that kind of exposure. I would've rather they rest him a little and then send him to Hawaii or maybe the AFL after an AA spot-start.
5 comments | 0 recs
The Future of the mrkupe Prospect Smackdown . . .and more
As promised, I finished up a series of three Prospect Smackdowns a couple of days ago. For anybody who missed them before I proceed, links to the material:
Clay Buchholz vs. Joba Chamberlain
Chris Marrero vs. Travis Snider
Overall, I'd say they were successful, and the Buchholz vs. Chamberlain Smackdown in particular has attracted a lot of attention to the site. I enjoyed writing them, although I will admit that there's a pretty decent amount of work that goes into them. I had a lot of requests for other Smackdowns in the original thread, and there's more than a few that I wouldn't mind addressing. I also had some requests for some other material that I wouldn't mind doing at all.
I decided to take a few days after finishing the last Smackdown to assess where (if anywhere) I wanted to go with future writing projects. I've come to three possible options.
- Continue posting features exclusively as diary posts on here, including the Smackdowns but possibly expanding to other things as requested
- Begin my own blog featuring my individual content
- A split of 1 and 2. Posting certain things on a blog and other things on this site (although they likely would be posted/archived on the blog site as well)
So I thought I'd put it before the community and find out what other folks are thinking. Is there interest in future features? If there is, would you rather see them posted exclusively on here or would you be interested in a split between minorleagueball.com diary posts and my own blog/website?
Personally, it doesn't make much of a difference to me as long the audience is there. I'm basically looking for the best means to circulate my work to the fullest extent. Suggestions are invited and encouraged.
21 comments | 0 recs
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