Billy Beane has gone on a walkabout and you need to step in as the new GM.

Here’s the situation.

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Last week Taj Adib and I sat down at our respective computers and devised Top 20 lists for the A’s minor league system. When we compared our lists it was apparent that we didn’t see eye-to-eye on a few of the players. Over the next couple weeks Taj and I are going to debate our choices and then share those discussions with AN’s hordes in an attempt to convince you of the righteousness of our particular side.

In the meantime, allow me to update you on the goings on in Hawaii and Arizona.

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When you look at an organization’s bevy of prospects you have to accept that some of them, probably as many as half of them, will not qualify for similar consideration a year later. Injuries, poor performance, promotions and trades will exact a toll on any prospect list. Heading into the 2008 season the Oakland A’s had 13 grade B- or better prospects in their organization, using John Sickels’ method of grading. I prefer his way at grading prospects because a B-grade prospect in one system is held in the same regard as a B-grade prospect in another system. (And I’m making the cut-off for quality of prospect a B- because when I was a kid in school that was the lowest grade I could get and not get a talking to from my parents.) During the season Beane traded for 5 more B-grade prospects in the Harden/Gaudin and Blanton deals.

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It’s obvious that the A’s need a new 3B.

Chavez’s shoulder won’t let him make the necessary throws, Hannahan can’t hit and Jeff Baisley is, well, Jeff Baisley. What do we want from a new 3B? Let’s make a list:

Good, reliable defense.

Above average offense, preferably with 20 homerun RH pop.

Affordable.

Young enough to maybe give us some peak years production.

Under team control long enough to help the A’s compete in a couple years.

Healthy!

Doesn’t cost us Brett Anderson or Trevor Cahill to acquire.

Sounds doable.

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1979.

Consider that a hint towards a shocking revelation still to come. But before we start looking back in time let’s focus on the here and now. Your 2008 Oakland currently sport the lowest cumulative team batting average, on-base percentage and slugging numbers in major league baseball. The A’s have scored 554 runs in 141 games played, putting them on pace to score fewer then 640 runs for the season. To put that in perspective, that’s 100 runs fewer then the A’s scored last year when everyone thought the A’s featured a below-average offense. 640 runs in a season would be the lowest number of runs the A’s scored in a non-strike season since… you guessed it… 1979!

How’s that for freaking pathetic.

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Talent wins baseball games.

Talent costs money.

The A’s finished last season 10 games under .500 because of a lack of talent, not funding. They spent over $79 million on player salaries alone and then they spent another $3.9 million on bonuses for their 2007 draft class. That’s a minimum $83 million invested directly into the on-field talent, factor in the salaries of the minor league minions and the A’s owners spent over $85 million just to get the guys on the various rosters to show up. The results were completely unacceptable. The big league team finished 76-86 and the farm system ranked as one of the five worst in baseball.

Spending money is not the same thing as acquiring talent.

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So I was halfway through a story when I saw yet another question regarding the 40-man roster in 2009. This was a topic I was going to address once Beane finished dealing (which was the nature of the earlier story) come July 31st but as there seems to be continued confusion on the topic, I'll dive in now.

This is based on what we know about the organization and existing contracts today. In other words, Mark Ellis is a FA-to-be and will therefore NOT be on next year's 40-man roster.

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Hello again. Just your friendly neighborhood muppet dropping by for another chat. The folks over at AthleticsNation have been talking a lot about the A's offense (or lack thereof as the case most certainly be) and various names have been bandied back and forth as possible targets to acquire. One of the more prominent personalities on AN brought up your very own Ryan Garko and that got me thinking about your roster.

So, what would it take to pry Grady Sizemore out of Cleveland's line-up?

Yeah, I know. Spare me the cries that the Indians would never trade Grady. You're telling me the Tribe faithful would be happy if the Front Office turned down a Sizemore trade that could make the franchise better? No one is untouchable... anyone can get traded. Hell, even guys who have full no-trade protection can get traded!

A-Rod got traded.

Therefore Sizemore could get traded, if a team was willing to pay the price. My question to this board is, what is that price?

I only have one stipulation: You cannot ask for someone not readily available. The players have to be in the A's organization today AND they must be eligible to be traded. So don't go asking for Inoa because MLB rules state a player must be with his signing organization for 1 year before he can be traded.

So, gun to your head... you've got to trade Sizemore to Oakland. Who do you get in return?

Why yes, I am playing the Clash as I start to write this.

Here's the deal.

As things stand now, Justin Duchscherer is a year and a half from becoming a free agent for the first time in his pro career. He will be 31 when that happens, his 32nd birthday will be right around the corner. And as much love as Duke may have towards the Oakland organization he will know that he has one shot at landing a big payday before his career is over. Chances are he'll get more money to play somewhere other then Oakland and he will leave the A's.

The A's rarely keep their free agents once they taste the free market.

There are those on AN who are fine with that outcome. They would say that we should enjoy Duke for one more full season and then bid him farewell and take the draft picks as compensation. I assure you, in conversation they will say the A's will get 2 1st round picks in return for letting Duke go. Now I'm certain that Duke will put up numbers that will earn him Type A free agent status, so that's not the issue. No, the issue is Barry Zito. See, I spent a year listening to people say again and again that the A's should keep Zito till his 6 years were up and then let him walk as a free agent. For a year people were telling me that getting 1 more year of performance out of Zito, plus two 1st round draft picks, was a better deal then trading Barry. Maybe they were right.

Not that we'd know because Zito signed with Giants, a team so bad they weren't forced into surrendering their 1st round pick to sign a marquee FA like Barry Zito so instead of enjoying 2 1st round picks the A's got a Sup 1 plus a 2nd round pick for their troubles. That bit.

I have no desire to experience the same damn thing with Duke.

So I say trade Duke or sign him to an extension and you do it before July 31st rolls around.

First the arguement for trading Duke.

If it was ever Beane's intention to trade Duke, now is the time. He will never have more trade value then he has now. Two time All-Star, leading all SP in ERA and playing for a team in contention. Even better for a buyer, Duke will be under their control through 2009. There is a limited supply of reliable SP available on the trade market and the two most desired arms have already been moved to contenders. I repeat, Justin Duchscherer will never have more trade value then he has right now! He might just be the best arm available.

Now the arguement for signing Duke to an extension.

I propose a 3 year/$30 million guaranteed deal with a team controlled 4th year option at $10 million. Let me break down how the money would be distrubuted, 'cause this is a key point in what makes the deal so attractive for the A's. My plan includes a $6 million signing bonus paid in full THIS season. Total 2008 salary expenditure for Duke: $7.2 million.

2009-2011: $7 million annual salary.

2012: Team controlled $10 million option with a $3 million buy-out. I look at this as saying the A's are willing to pay Duke another $7 million to pitch 1 more season for them.

Total payout (assuming option is activated): 4 years/$37 million.

A year and a half from now, Duke shouldn't have any problem landing a $9 million annual deal on the free agent market. My plan pays Duke the same figure, only he gets more cash earlier and the A's get to spread the payment of a 3 year guaranteed deal out over 5 seasons at roughly $7 million annual.

So the deal sounds fine fiscally, how about in terms of performance? Well, PECOTA is going to have to re-do their projections since Duke is now a SP but cominh into this season they weren't projecting any drop-off in performance through 2009 and only a slight dip in 2010. 2011 could see a decline but that's also the last guaranteed year on the proposed deal. Duke will be 33 in 2011, not so old that we need to worry about a dramatic drop-off in his stuff. Assuming Duke doesn't lose his command and control (which seems unlikely) his performance shouldn't be a negative. And in case there is a drop-off you can let him walk after the season.

As I see it, both options have their merits. The only plan that is truly open to suckitude is the one that stays the course and lets him walk as a FA after the 2009 season.

Hi, I'm grover and I've visited before way back when.

I'd be shocked if the A's parted ways with Blanton, seeing as his stock is so low right now. I imagine that's part of the appeal for the Phillies, they know he can pitch better then he's shown and they're hoping they can get a bargain. A sound plan but it tends to run contrary to Beane's attempts to gouge his trade partners mercilessly.

What about 2 time All-Star Justin Duchscherer (or Duke as the lovable muppets at AN call him) as the final piece to Philly's rotation? Duke has the lowest SP ERA in all of baseball and his component numbers are nice to look at as well. Admittedly he probably pitched a little over his head in the 1st half but when you look at his career numbers you can see that he knows how to pitch.

He's arby eligible next season, so the Phils could control him for a season and a half if they chose to do so. I realize the Philly fans (and management for that matter) would prefer if Myers could come back and pitch like he has in the past but assuming he doesn't, would Duke be of interest?

If the readers of this site advocate a trade for Duke, perhaps you wouldn't mind sharing your ideas regarding adequate payment. I'm curious to know what the deal is with Jason Donald. Does he have the range for SS? 'Cause the A's needs someone who can replace Bobby Crosby and the sooner the better!

FYI, another guy I like is Dominic Brown.

Just so ya know.