http://masnsports.com/index_blog_roch.html

As for catching, the word on the street is that the Tigers and Reds are interested in Ramon Hernandez, and have expressed it to team president Andy MacPhail.

I don't expect either team would offer much in return - it would be a miracle to get either team to pay all of Ramon's salary next year.

The problem with trading Ramon is that there is no way you can credibly keep Wieters down in AAA for a few weeks (to buy that extra year of club control) when Quiroz is the best catching option.

How about Camden Chat favorite Greg Zaun as a stopgap?

The Arizona Fall League starts in about 20 minutes, and there will be plenty of big names to watch again this year. This is also the perfect chance for four 2008 first-rounders to prove they belong on the fast-track to the majors.

I looked through the rosters and came up with my top 20 "prospects" (a few of which have too much ML service time to qualify officially as prospects). As usual, the talent is weighed heavily towards the hitting side since most of the top pitching talents in the minor leagues have thrown plenty of innings.

1. Matt Wieters, C, BAL
2. Philip Hughes, RHP, NYY
3. Clay Buchholz, RHP, BOS
4. Travis Snider, LF, TOR
5. Max Scherzer, RHP, ARI
6. Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL
7. Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL
8. Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX
9. Gordon Beckham, SS, CWS
10. Tommy Hanson, RHP, ATL
11. Brett Wallace, 3B, STL
12. Austin Jackson, CF, NYY
13. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, MIL
14. Ivan De Jesus, Jr., SS, LAD
15. Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA
16. Casey Weathers, RHP, COL
17. Adrian Cardenas, 2B/SS, OAK
18. J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR
19. Carlos Triunfel, SS, SEA
20. Scott Elbert, LHP, LAD

Honorable Mentions (alphabetically): Jason Donald, Greg Halman, Andrew Lambo, Lou Marson, Beau Mills, Dan Murphy, Aaron Poreda, Josh Reddick, Nolan Reimold, Drew Stubbs.

Other players worth watching (alphabetically): Kyle Blanks, Julio Borbon, Daniel Cortes, Scott Cousins, Ross Detwiler, Josh Donaldson, Sean Doolittle, Wes Hodges, Brandon Jones, Jeff Larish, Angel Salome, Brandon Snyder, Chris Valaika, Donald Veal, Sean West.

Now, who did I miss or rank too low/high? Has my AL East bias gone haywire?

It's mid-September in Baltimore, which means it's time for Andy MacPhail to start thinking about the offseason.  The first order of business is to clean up the 40-man roster in preparation for the Rule 5 draft in early December. 

The Orioles have 46 men on their 40-man roster right now (those extra 6 are on the 60-day DL), and they will need to add 5 prospects to the extended roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.  The 60-day DL disappears for the offseason in October, so the Orioles will need to prune at least 11 players next month - and more if they sign any free agents.

Here's how I see it.

Under Contract (6)
Brian Roberts
Aubrey Huff
Ramon Hernandez
Melvin Mora
Jamie Walker
Danys Baez

The Orioles have just 6 players currently under contract for 2009, and all of them are due to be free agents after 2009.  The top 4 guys on the list are candidates to be traded, and the bottom two are candidates to be cut (a la Gibbons) if they don't earn a spot in spring training.

Arbitration-eligible (6)
Nick Markakis
Jeremy Guthrie
Luke Scott
George Sherrill
Chris Ray
Daniel Cabrera

Markakis, Sherrill, and Ray will be arbitration-eligible for the first time.  Guthrie and Scott should also qualify for the first time under the super-two rule.  Cabrera enters his second year of arbitration and he's the only member of this group who has any chance of being non-tendered.  I expect all 6 will be Orioles next year.

Likely Major Leaguers (8)
Adam Jones
Jim Johnson
Matt Albers
Dennis Sarfate
Garrett Olson
Radhames Liz
Randor Bierd
Guillermo Quiroz

These players are all virtual locks to make the opening day roster (if healthy).  All of them will earn close to the major league minimum.  All 6 of the pitchers could theoretically fit in either the rotation or the bullpen.  Johnson and Sarfate are out of options.

Prospects (6)
Brian Matusz
Chorye Spoone
David Hernandez
Brad Bergesen
Nolan Reimold
Mike Costanzo

Matusz is already on the 40-man because of his major league contract, and the others will need to be added to the 40-man to protect them from the rule 5 draft.  I don't see any of these guys making the major league club out of spring training, but some of them could push for spots later in the season.

AAA Depth (7)
Troy Patton
Lou Montanez
Jim Miller
Kam Mickolio
Scott Moore
Jim Hoey
Hayden Penn

All of these guys have a shot at making the opening day roster.  Patton, Moore, Hoey, and Penn are coming off serious injuries, and the others will have to prove themselves in spring training.  Moore and Penn are out of options, so they will be exposed to waivers if they don't make the opening day roster.

Fringe Depth (7)
Alberto Castillo
Lance Cormier
Brian Bass
Bob McCrory
Brandon Fahey
Brian Burres
Rocky Cherry

These guys will round out the 40-man roster and are on the cusp of being cut.  If the Orioles sign any free agents or  need to free up room to make a rule 5 pick of their own, these guys will be the first to go.  Burres and Fahey are out of options.

Likely to be cut (7)
Oscar Salazar
Chris Waters
Omir Santos
Alfredo Simon
Jeff Fiorentino
Fredy Deza
Adam Loewen

These players can fight for a spot on the Fringe Depth list, but most of them will be cut shortly after the World Series in order to get the roster down to 40.  Loewen is obviously a bit of a special case, but he needs to come off the 40-man because he is out of options.

Free Agents (4)
Juan Castro
Alex Cintron
Jay Payton
Kevin Millar

These players are currently on the 40-man, and they will be eligible to file for free agency.  I don't expect any of them will be invited back on a major league deal.

Matt Wieters (1)
Matt Wieters

Wieters may make the team out of spring training, but the Orioles won't have to add him to the 40-man until the last minute, so he's not going to affect their roster planning over the offseason.

It's an off night for the O's (thank the lord), but the Baysox were busy playing game 2 of the Eastern League playoffs.

Nolam Reimold almost hit for the HR cycle with a solo HR, two-run HR, and a grand slam.  He also has an RBI single.  That's 8 RBI, if your keeping count.

He also hit a HR in the first game of the playoffs last night.

Think he's playing his way into a callup after the playoffs are over?  He now has 29 HRs on the season.

Also of note: Bergesen went 8 innings, allowing 2 ER, 6K, on 4 H and 1BB.

Box Score

OK, this was much harder than I thought it would be, and I'm certainly open to criticism. I tried to balance stats, scouting reports, and closeness to majors.

I see very little separation in the middle portion of the list, so don't complain if a guy if a few slots too high or low. I probably should've just grouped them into tiers and left them unranked, but rankings are way more fun.

I also found it difficult to compare hitters and pitchers, but I like the simplicity of one list.

The other extremely difficult aspect was ranking the 2008 draftees. Only Beckham, Matusz, and Cooper made the cut, but perhaps more should have.

1. Matt Wieters, C, BAL
2. David Price, LHP, TBR
3. Travis Snider, OF, TOR
4. Tim Beckham, SS, TBR
5. Chris Tillman, RHP, BAL
6. Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS
7. Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL
8. Wade Davis, RHP, TBR
9. Austin Jackson, OF, NYY
10. Brett Cecil, LHP, TOR
11. Michael Bowden, RHP, BOS
12. Reid Brignac, SS, TBR
13. Jesus Montero, C?, NYY
14. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TBR
15. Jake Arrieta, RHP, BAL
16. Josh Reddick, OF, BOS
17. David Hernandez, RHP, BAL
18. Jacob McGee, LHP, TBR
19. David Cooper, 1B, TOR
20. Zach McAllister, RHP, NYY

Honorable Mentions (Alphabetically)

JP Arencibia, C, TOR
Daniel Bard, RHP, BOS
Nick Barnese, RHP, TBR
Dellin Betances, RHP, NYY
Brandon Erbe, RHP, BAL
Desmond Jennings, CF, TBR
Ryan Kalish, OF, BOS
Mark Melancon, RHP, NYY
Jeff Niemann, RHP, TBR
Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL
Brandon Snyder, 1B, BAL
Chorye Spoone, RHP, BAL
Mitch Talbot, RHP, TBR

The following players were not considered because they have 'graduated': Lowrie, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Masterson, Joba, Kennedy, Gardner, Purcey, Longoria, Olson, and Liz.

Full disclosure: as an Orioles fan, I know their system better than the others, so I may be overlooking some diamonds in the rough on other teams. I tried my best to be fair.

Since the Major League team is virtually unwatchable at this point, let's take a look at everyone's favorite prospect, Matt Wieters.

I'm sure most O's fans have at least a passing familiarity with what he's done in the minors this year, but I like to look at his numbers, so here they are:

A+/AA (Age 22): .350/.452/.597 (1.049 OPS) 26 HR, 88 RBI, 81/72 BB/K

Those are just insane numbers. To put those in perspective, below are some top ranked hitting prospects by Baseball America over the last few years along with their stats in the prior season.

Jay Bruce (#1 in 2008)

A+/AA/AAA (Age 20): .319/.375/.587 (.962 OPS) 26 HR, 89 RBI, 47/135 BB/K

Evan Longoria (#2 in 2008)

AA/AAA (Age 21): .299/.402/.520 (.922 OPS) 26 HR, 95 RBI, 73/110 BB/K

Alex Gordon (#2 in 2007)

AA (Age 22): .325/.427/.588 (1.015 OPS) 29 HR, 101 RBI, 72/113 BB/K

Brandon Wood (#3 in 2006)

A+ (Age 20): .321/.383/.672 (1.055 OPS) 43 HR, 116 RBI, 48/134 BB/K

Joe Mauer (#1 in 2004/2005)

A+/AA (Age 20): .338/.396/.434 (.830 OPS) 5 HR, 85 RBI, 49/49 BB/K

Wieters hit for a higher average than any of these guys, and he showed as much power as all of them but Wood. His plate discipline is where he really shines, though.

He walked more than any of these other elite hitters, and was the only hitter to have more walks than strikeouts. He had fewer strikeouts than everyone but Mauer, and that's an important indicator of how easily a minor league hitter will transition to the majors, which is why Mauer had an easier time than some of the others.

Wieters also provides as much or more defensive value as any of these other guys. The only knock against Wieters is that he was a little old for his leagues compared to some of these other guys, but there's a pretty strong case for calling Wieters the best hitting prospect in the last 5 years.

Wieters is flying a bit under the radar on the national level right now, but I think that will change in the offseason. He's likely to receive multiple player-of-the-year awards and he's likely to be ranked as the #1 prospect by Baseball America.

So, how should the Orioles handle him next year? He's not getting called up this September, and I recently read a quote from Trembley that indicated he won't be guaranteed the starting spot out of spring training. The writing on the wall is that the Orioles plan to play the service time game with Wieters just like the Rays did with Longoria.

If Wieters breaks camp with the Orioles next spring and never sees the minor leagues again, he'll be eligible for free agency after the 2014 season. However, due to a quirk of the system, if he stays in the minor leagues for just two weeks next year, he won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season.

It's probably the smart move from an organizational perspective, but it is a little on the sneaky side, and the Orioles will have to come up with a reason for Wieters to spend a little time in AAA. I'm guessing something along the lines of "he needs to work on his footwork" or "he needs a little more experience calling games" or some other nonsense. 

The real downside is that the Orioles will need a catcher other than Wieters on opening day 2009. That may mean they will decide to hold on to Ramon Hernandez, or they may just try to pretend that Quiroz is a starting catcher. It should be an interesting storyline to watch.

One last piece of Wieters news: The Orioles are sending him to the Arizona Fall League along with Brandon Snyder and Nolan Reimold.  No word on Brian Matusz, but the Orioles haven't announced which pitchers they are sending.

USA Today is accepting fan votes for their minor league player of the year. The fan vote will be counted as one ballot along with USA Today writers.

I recommend voting at the USA Today site, but who do Minor League Ball readers think deserves the award?

Prior winners:

1988: Right-hander Mike Harkey
1989: Infielder Todd Zeile
1990: First baseman Tino Martinez
1991: Right-hander Mark Wohlers
1992: First baseman Carlos Delgado
1993: Outfielder Cliff Floyd
1994: Outfielder Billy Ashley
1995: Outfielder Andruw Jones
1996: Outfielder Andruw Jones
1997: Outfielder Ben Grieve
1998: Outfielder Gabe Kapler
1999: Left-hander Rick Ankiel
2000: Outfielder Josh Hamilton
2001: Right-hander Josh Beckett
2002: Shortstop Jose Reyes
2003: First baseman Prince Fielder
2004: Left-hander Jeff Francis
2005: Left-hander Francisco Liriano
2006: Right-hander Matt Garza
2007: Outfielder Justin Upton

Jake Arrieta got the win in his first appearance in the Olympics against a pretty bad Chinese team. He allowed 2 hits over 6 shutout innings. He struck out 7 and allowed 2 BBs.

Of note, Arrieta also hit 2 batters as the game turned into an ugly beanball fest. Several US players were hit, and Indians prospect Matt LaPorta leveled the Chinese catcher in a play at the plate. LaPorta was hit in the head with a pitch on his next at bat, and he had to leave the game.

China's only run came on a solo homer late in the game, and the Chinese hitter ran all the way around the bases with one fist in the air, and he stomped on home plate as he crossed.

There are more pics of Arrieta violating the Orioles facial hair policy here:

This may be his only chance to pitch in the Olympics, although he is lined up to pitch in the gold medal game on Saturday if the USA team makes it that far.