Lots of people predict that Justin Verlander will be ineffective or fall injured this year based on the dramatic increase in the number of innings he pitched in '05 versus '06. I can understand this concern.

One thing that stands out to me, however, is the relatively lower number of pitches he threw in his innings. I'll list three young pitchers and the number of pitches they threw last year.

Justin Verlander
Regular Season - 2973 pitches thrown, 186 ip
Postseason - 408 pitches
Total - 3381

Matt Cain
Regular Season - 3307 pitches, 191 ip

Felix Hernandez - 3067 pitches, 190 ip

Basically, Verlander threw 75 more pitches than Matt Cain last year, and no one talks about a high injury risk for Cain. So it must be the increase in innings. In 03, Cain threw 73 innings in the minors. In 04, Cain threw 158 innings in the minors, in 05 he threw 192 innings in the minors and majors, and in 06 he threw 191. So he matched his career high, but there are dramatic increases in there, correct?

So, what is the basis for the injury concern? Is it due to using innings pitched as a general guide. If it is, why don't people talk about the number of pitches thrown? Is it significant in terms of the likelihood of injuries if a pitcher throws less pitches per inning?

I'm just wondering what people focus on when they're trying to predict injuries or protect pitchers from injuries.