Jennings hasn't played professional baseball since August. He had a "minor knee injury" and ended up missing the rest of the season, and now apparently (according to rotoworld.com) hurt his back in March and was supposed to be out "4-6 weeks". Now he supposedly has a shoulder injury and has "no ETA". Is this guy made of glass? Is there anything else to the story? It seems odd to have "no ETA" unless it's a dramatically serious injury.

Really cool (though analytical) paper about the success, and therefore "worth" of prospects by Victor Wang.

It's from August, but I hadn't seen or heard about it before.  While this is part of a subscription-only newsletter, I'm not concerned about this being copywrited, because in this Hardball Times Article (which is cool in and of itself):  http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-bright-side-of-losing-santana/ the author links the original paper, here: http://www.philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-08.pdf

Basically, Wang looked at the prospects in the top 100 of BAs lists through every year in the 90s.  And then looked at their performance in the first six years of their careers.

Looking only at top 10 prospects:  For hitters, the likelihood of them becoming stars (based on WARP) was 17%, bust 21%.  For pitchers it was 4% stars and over 50% busts.  For prospects 11-25, the bust rate increased for both subgroups.

Following up on Bravesin07/PujolsJunkie's posts about cool stat figures, how about the other end?

Let's keep this to consensus top 50 prospects (obviously there is no "consensus" on this, but figuring our top 25, plus some leeway around those who will likely finish around the top 50.

Under .260 average (full season) = Cam Maybin
Under 10 HR (full season) = Ellsbury
Under 30 SB (career)= Travis Snider
Over 162Ks (batter, season) = Cam Maybin
at least 17 losses = Carlos Carrasco
at least 100 BB's (pitcher) = Franklin Morales
Era over 5.00 (full season) = Radhams Liz
Fewer than 100 career games (pitcher) = Nick Adenhart
Fewer than 1,000 career AB = Jose Tabata
Least career major league service time = Jose Tabata

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/12/sports/baseball/12mitchell.html?em&ex=1197608400&en=55cc34 ecc24a60f6&ei=5087%0A

Steroid Report Expected to Cite About 50 Players

"...What it contains will be officially revealed Thursday, when Mitchell holds a 2 p.m. news conference in Manhattan followed by a separate news conference by Commissioner Bud Selig to discuss the findings. But two people who are familiar with Mitchell's investigation, and his findings, said that the report would contain the names of more than 50 active and former major league players who are linked to the use of performance-enhancing drugs....

....Both said many of the names in the report are directly tied to information provided to Mitchell's investigators by Kirk Radomski, a former bat boy and clubhouse attendant for the Mets who pleaded guilty to steroid distribution in April.

In Radomski's plea agreement, he stated that he provided dozens of players with steroids, human growth hormone and stimulants from 1995 through 2005...."

"...The evidence that Mitchell will use to cite players is expected to be documentary in nature -- canceled checks, shipping slips, phone records -- and not based on positive drug tests...."

Feel free to speculate which all star players (since nobody cares about anyone else) that will be listed among the 50 or chide people who are speculating about it.

The key facts are that the source worked for the Mets and he was supplying between '95 and '05.

I think Piazza is a lock.  I also bet that Arod will be mentioned.

this year's FA class isn't really that interesting, but the 2008 off-season is shaping up be like the 2000 off-season.

And because of that, next year's trade deadline looks like it has the potential to have some really game-changing talents changing teams.  Given the list of talents below, I think a lot of teams will be much more likely to part with some elite level prospects to get these guys.  Don't get too attached to your teams' favorite prospects.

Guys currently tabbed as potential free agents after 2008:

P:  Johan, Peavy, Sabathia, Lackey, AJ Burnett, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets
OF:  Crawford, Dunn, Wily Mo Pena, Manny, Vlad
IF:  Texeira, Furcal, Renteria, Glaus, Chipper, Orlando Hudson, Sexson, Felipe Lopez, Blaylock

The pitching especially looks amazing.

And note: between now and the end of the '08 season, the Yankees will have about $80MM coming off the books in Clemens, Giambi, Mussina, Pavano, Farnsworth, Abreu, and Pettite.  That $80MM number will be decreased by whatever it costs to extend A-rod, and sign new contracts with Posada and Rivera.  But it will still likely be about $60-%70MM.  Enough for at least two, probably three superstar additions

Remember him?

In his last 10 games dating back to the middle of July (since he missed about 3 weeks with a non-pitching related bruised elbow):

16 2/3 innings
14 hits
5 walks
23 ks
0.54 ERA

He has been typically pitching more than an inning per appearance.

He was supposed to be phenomenal when drafted, and then just fell apart in the majors last year as well as Spring Training, and the beginning of the season this year.

Is there hope still for him to be a dominant reliever/closer?

Just so that Giantsfan doesn't feel obligated to start it every day.

The big thing I'm eyeing is Gallardo - Marmol.  Gallardo has a tough row to hoe if he's to try and keep pace with Lincecum's numbers.

Some games already concluded today.

Rasmus starting to pick it up with another 2-4

Longoria continues to hit for power (5th homer) and with patience (17th walk). Looks like I was wrong here.

Brandon Hynick is old (22) for A+ ball (so were Garza and Slowey last year), but he pitched a complete game 2 hitter with 7ks and no walks.  Now at 22:3 and zero ER in 32 innings

In a league that counts OPS instead of BA, and classifies LF, CF, RF positions, and allows you to keep a player for four years after they lose ROY eligibility (as a late 20th round pick)

How would you rank the following four? (from a fantasy perspective - knowing I can only have them for the first four full years of their careers)

Andrew Miller
Hunter Pence
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Garza

I have all four of thse guys (along with Morales, Bruce, Rasmus, and Gallardo) and am in the middle of  trade discussions.  The guy keeps asking for Pence - I think I'd rather part with a pitching prospect and am leaning toward including Miller

edit: Can't really say what I'd be getting b/c someone else in my league reads this blog. Suffice the say, the value of what I'm getting is good - it's just a matter of which prospects I should be trying to make sure I hold.

This was mentioned by someone a few weeks ago, but didn't really get any responses, and Gonzalez has continued to produce.

So the question is, with Gonzalez at .318/.398/.530 through 198AB, what does it mean?  What is the level of competition in the VWL?

John has Carlos Gonzalez listed a B+.  

The concerns with Gonzalez (aside from laziness) was his atrocious plate discipline.

But through 53 games in the Venezuela Winter league, he's sitting at a 25/33 BB/K ratio which is dramatically improved from his last two years.  And I wouldn't say 200 AB is a small sample.

Even figuring in his improved plate discipline at his cup of coffee in AA last year (7BB/12K in 61 AB - could have been an anomoly), when comparing last year (464 AB) to his VWL so far (198 AB), he's improved his BB rate from 8% to 13% (it was about 8% in '05) and reduced his K rate from 25% to 17% (it was about 17% in '05).  

Really the only batting # that's regressed is his power with only a 10.6% XBH rate compared to 14.6% last season (it was 8.2% in '05).

So, anyone know what to make of this? (other than it's a slow day for me at work and I obviously own him in my fantasy league)

Is the VWL just easy competition?  Is Gonzalez turning a corner with his batting eye?  Would you give up the power for improved batting eye for development's sake?

Who would get the biggest contracts?  The Vernon Wells situation got some people talking.  Is he really the 8th best player in baseball?  

I argued, no probably not, but given his age and position scarcity, I bet if all players were immediately free agents, he'd be one of the top 10 picks (or sign one of the top 10 largest contracts)

So it got me thinking, who would be the 10 people?

I mean, guys like Manny Ramirez and Derek Jeter would get paid more than Reyes or Sizemore for this year, but they certainly wouldn't get a bigger contract, nor would they get drafted ahead of them.

It's probably easier to just think of a straight-forward draft, but thinking about the potential contracts might be pretty interesting as well.

Here are my ten:

1.  Pujols - still young and best hitter alive
   
2.  Santana - always healthy, still relatively young, and very consistent
   
3.  Howard - David Ortiz minus four years
   
4.  Arod - Still one of the best
   
5.  Reyes - over his injury bug, premium position, very young, and still improving
   
6.  Wells - I think he'd be the highest paid CF.  Barely 28, great fielder
   
7.  Wright - Fielding could improve, but fantastic, young hitter.
   
8.  Beltran - premium position, speed, power, everything.
   
9.  Sizemore - I may be short-changing him, or maybe he shouldn't even be on this list.  I keep going back and forth
   
10. Zambrano - tough to narrow down the list and pick him over so many other guys (Utley, Aramis, Soriano), but he's 26, is a complete horse, and never gets hurt in spite of Cubs' management