I play in an AL-only 5x5 roto league with almost unlimited keepers (40-man rosters, and salary cap based on an online game, but unless you have the Yankees, you don't push that cap).  Categories are: AVG,OBP,HR,SB,RP and the usual 5 for pitchers.  

I traded 2009 picks for 2008 picks and drafted 14 extra players, so I have some cuts to make before the season begins.  We can draft anyone who has played AA or higher ever, but after the draft, players can only be picked up if they play in the bigs.  FA's such as Scott Linebrink and Alexei Ramirez were draft-eligible.  Players who come over in trade go to the team which had the players traded away.

Please comment on my draft picks, and which guys you'd think are easy cuts.  I don't really have team needs for 2008, per se, although my only saves guy is K-Rod, and I always want more SP.  Not that I'm going to win going away, but I should contend, and have a balanced lineup and pitching.  

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Personally, I'd like to participate in this community prospect poll again at some point, so I was wondering how much of the Fukudome non-voting is based on "principle", instead of a measuring of his prospect value.  If the "I'm not going to vote for this guy, ever" people make up a big enough % of the voting base, I'm going to stop voting for him, too.  As I said in another post, I don't think we can have split opinions on this issue and generate a true "consensus" list.

Poll

Fukudome?

• I don't think he should be on the ballots. (Not in a MiLB system or other reason)
• I don't think anyone over 30 can possibly be a top-100 prospect.
• Eww - 30+ is even worser than not drawing walks! Maybe in the 70-100 range.
• I haven't voted for him, but I may soon. Others are over-rating him a bit.
• I have voted for him (at least once).

  157 votes | Results

Josh Kroeger sort of re-emerged in 2007 in the Cubs minors.  Given their lineup's "conservative" leanings (almost all rightys), they could really use a reasonable lefty bat.  Do people think he has a chance to be that still?

Poll

3-year Kroeger outlook?

• Becomes nothing more than a 5th-outfielder/PH, IF he gets major league jobs at all.
• Becomes a reasonable 4th-OF/PH.
• Becomes a decent left-side of a platoon.
• Becomes a nearly "average" full-time major league OF.
• Becomes an above-average MLB OF (or better).

  40 votes | Results

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Alright, I know that Enrique isn't going to win the Cy Young award like his teammate did last year.  But I was reminded of how "under the radar" this guy seems to be, when reading that diary asking for rankings of 12 pitchers.  And I wouldn't touch him in roto, but then again, I would hesitate to utilize any pitcher who didn't get as much sink on their pitches as possible in Arizona.  

Consider these EqPECOTAs:

Matt Garza, 2007: 8.5 H9, 3.1 W9, 6.7 K9, 1.1 HR9, 2.6 WXRL in 150 IP.
Enrique Gonzalez, 07: 9.1 H9, 2.8 W9, 5.3 K9, 1.0 HR9, 2.6 WXRL in 156 IP.
Jeremy Sowers, 2007: 10.0 H9, 2.7 W9, 4.2 K9, 1.1 HR9, 2.5 WXRL in 165 IP.

I'm not trying to dis Garza or Sowers, either... most of the pitchers on that other list are in this range of WXRL, although most are higher than 2.5/150 IP.  I'm mainly wondering what people think of Gonzalez's future.  Is he one of those guys who will struggle to be a 5th starter for a few years before washing out?  Will he be a "solid" 5th starter (whatever that is)?  Will he be a reasonable 4th starter for a few years?  Can he aspire to anything more than that?  Or, maybe, he'll end up in the pen? (He is, after all, less than 6' tall).  Thoughts?

I read at the MLB Trade Rumors site that Beane has offered Harden to the Mets.  The article there said it was for two players (Carlos Gomez and one of: Milledge, Humber, Pelfrey).  The original article is a bit ambiguous, but it sounds like it's for 3 players (Carlos Gomez, Milledge, and one of the 2 pitchers).  I'm curious what people here think about these possibilities, given the obvious bias toward prospects.

Poll

What is Harden worth to the Mets?

• I wouldn't even trade 2 prospects for him.
• I would trade Gomez and Milledge for him.
• I would trade Gomez and a pitcher for him.
• I would trade Gomez, Milledge, and a pitcher for him.
• I would trade Gomez, Milledge, and a pitcher for him, and then celebrate about how Beane was clearly bested in a deal!

  108 votes | Results

I combined the top 50 from here, Baseball Digest Daily, and MiLB.com, weighting each the same.  The list comes out as:

1. Alex Gordon
   
2. Delmon Young
   
3. Philip Hughes
   
4. Homer Bailey
   
5. Brandon Wood
   
6. Cameron Maybin
   
7. Justin Upton
   
8. Jay Bruce
   
9. Chris Young
   
10. Troy Tulowitzki
    
11. Billy Butler
    
12. Matt Garza
    
13. Andrew McCutchen
    
14. Evan Longoria
    
15. Adam Miller
    
16. Andy LaRoche
    
17. Yovani Gallardo
    
18. Mike Pelfrey
    
19. Carlos Gonzalez
    
20. Reid Brignac
    
21. Scott Elbert
    
22. Andrew Miller
    
23. Ryan Braun
    
24. Jose Tabata
    
25. Tim Lincecum
    
26. Fernando Martinez
    
27. Nick Adenhart
    
28. James Loney
    
29. Luke Hochevar
    
30. Adam Jones
    
31. Clayton Kershaw
    
32. Hunter Pence
    
33. Josh Fields
    
34. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    
35. Jacoby Ellsbury
    
36. Jeff Clement
    
37. Elijah Dukes
    
38. Felix Pie
    
39. Jason Hirsh
    
40. Ian Stewart
    
41. Colby Rasmus
    
42. Daric Barton
    
43. Chris Iannetta
    
44. Adam Lind
    
45. Joey Votto
    
46. Jeff Niemann
    
47. John Danks
    
48. Erick Aybar
    
49. Chuck Lofgren
    
50. Brandon Erbe

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Hi all -

First post here.  I hope you're all enjoying your Holidays!  I've been an M's fan since Griffey's debut.  I get the impression that I'm one of the few people who is actually somewhat optimistic about this season. Here are some excerpts from stuff I've posted at baseballhq.com regarding the team:

Re: post-Soriano bullpen [one of the paid staff at BHQ called the M's pen "razor thin"]:
I really think that "razor thin pen" is quite overblown. This was a tremendous bullpen last year, and while they lost 2 quality arms (Lowe, Soriano) and Fruto, I still think this pen will hold leads unless Putz completely collapses (a possibility, but not one I'd consider likely).

Sherrill has a huge L/R split, and is very good at his role as a Lefty Specialist (no relationship to the BHQ member, I assume :>).
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Alright, having the projections in a spreadsheet allows me to do fun things like compute the weighted average BVP of the relievers on a team (I summed up all the sub-4.0 IP/G pitchers, and weighted by IP). For the current projection file, this is 74 for the Mariners. Actually, that it's that good shocks even me (my gut tells me it's around average, perhaps slightly better if some things work out right), as it's the 2nd-highest in the majors! (The team which comes out #1 is even more shocking)

Of course, the SP rotation (totaling 944 IP) averages only "47", which betters only COL, KC, and WAS. I guess that's expected, since they have been hoarding the sort of pitchers who often out-pitch their BPV's (i.e. low-K).

Note: BHQ has a system of values called BPV's, and 50+ is considered good enough to start, and 75+ good enough to close.  It's a lot like "Stuff" ratings found elsewhere.

Re: Vidro deal (posted on baseballhq.com):
I really think that people are being pretty harsh on this deal for the M's. Consider:

In 1987, an oft-injured middle infielder was coming off seasons wherein he'd hit:

1985. .297/.356/.408 (576 AB) [age 28]
      
1986. .281/.340/.426 (437 AB) [age 29]
      

At this time, his career stats were: .291/.348/.418.

The next year, he hit .353/438/.566, finishing 5th in MVP voting. Spending significant time at DH for the first time (58 games), he still only managed 465 AB, probably keeping him from being higher in the MVP voting. As he played more frequently at DH later into his career, he became much less injury prone, and became a monster hitter, getting MVP votes in 6 other seasons.

Vidro's last two years:

2005. .275/.339/.424 (309/30)
      
2006. .289/.348/.395 (463/31)
      

At this time, his career stats are: .300/.363/.459.

Now, I'm not going to suggest that Vidro is going to hit like Paul Molitor after his move to DH, but this guy's been a quality hitter when healthy, and who's to say whether taking him out of the keystone won't be exactly what he needs? The daily abuse on catchers and 2bmen is brutal. And I think the TYPE of hitter Vidro is will play well in SAFECO. Signing righty power-hitting goombahs in Beltre and Sexson were the goofy moves, IMO, since building around players who are ill-suited for their home park seems illogical to me.

FWIW, Snelling, also, would have "fit" well into SAFECO, in my opinion. But - this never fails to get chuckles from the crowd - the Mariners are building a team to contend in 2007, and counting on a guy who has a history of missing so much time is very risky.
<><><>
Only time will tell, I guess. If the Vidro salary is the objectionable part, I can only argue that his career stats seem pretty nice to me. And besides, I haven't seen the M's make (or fail to make) moves based on money, so far. They seem to be getting the players they want, and paying them handsomely. I see Snelling and Fruto as flotsam that will provide only replacement-level play at the major-league level. Obviously, pitchers are tough to predict, so perhaps Fruto will do something, but I think he'll have to take a step up to get there. But let's level-set the players we're talking about here: Fruto didn't make either the BHQ org report, nor the John Sickels book last year at all. BHQ liked Snelling more than Sickels, rating him 10th in Seattle's org, while John gave him a "C", the lowest grade in the book. Coming off these not-great ratings, he proceeded to hit .216 with a .340 slugging in AAA, supposedly healthy for much of that time. Well, at least he hit .250 in the majors in 96 AB.

This deal was clearly a Vidro salary dump by the Nats, IMO. And even if Vidro doesn't improve, he's been worth 2.75 WARP1/season the past two years (two of his worst in his career, with his best being 8.0 and 7.7). So, they're paying his $6MM/yr. In an article, I suggested that $2MM/win is reasonable, and Tango's table assumes that teams pay $4MM/yr per win for free agents. So, he's either at about the right price, or very cheap.

[Someone had commented that Doyle should have just been used as DH instead of Vidro.]

By the way, I agree that Snelling should have been tried at DH if possible, and am baffled that the M's hadn't tried that before. I just think it would be ridiculous to do so at the MLB level, with as little as he's shown. Not every injury-prone hitter gets helped by playing DH, but some do. Molitor and Edgar Martinez were the first two that came to mind. I don't believe that Snelling has anywhere near the hitting skills to be a full-time MLB DH, though. BHQ projects a .265/.338/.397 line. Is that something worth getting worked up over? Much less playing at DH. His seemingly huge 2005 numbers were driven by [a BABIP] of 43%, and I don't trust them for a minute.

I thought the Soriano deal was quite reasonable, too. Starters the quality of Horacio Ramirez are pulling down $10MM/yr contracts now. I really don't understand why there is such widespread panning of this move. (see this article)

So, you love prospects, and want to be a farm director, without all the hassle of piecing together major league lineups, worrying about injuries, or following a team through the whole season?  How about becoming a "simulated" farm director?

I'm a member of a very in-depth Strat-O-Matic league, with 30 teams and 150-player rosters.  The initial draft was last year, and I was aware that some of the people, while experienced SOM vets, weren't very excited about building a farm system.  Knowing how much knowledge and passion for minor leaguers the people on this site have, I thought I'd get some help for them (actually I was inspired because one was considering leaving the league).  So, I floated the idea around the league, and here's what some of them said:

Owner 1:
"I need to find someone to draft for me and be in charge of player development.  I do not know enough about players to do a good job of it.  I hardly even know the players in my farm system"

Owner 2:
"I think its a great idea. I need all the help I can get."

Owner 3:
"Any help with minor league stuff would be appreciated.  I have 150 [players] right now, and if pressed I do not think I could name 45 of them."

What would you have to do?

1. Work with these managers to decide on 40-man rosters (all 4th-year minor leaguers must be protected or lost).
   
2. Suggest cuts (pre-draft) from the other 110 players to clear out the clutter in the off-season (i.e. soon).
   
3. Work with them on drafting (February).  Draft picks (like MLB) aren't tradable, so your team would have all its picks, and most first-year players are available (anyone previously drafted was already available, so I have Justin Smoak, for example).  By "work with them", I think most would be happy to just let you do the draft for them, so you'd have pride of "ownership".
   
4. Individual agreements can be worked out, but my understanding is that most managers would like to have someone who would stay with the team more than through just one draft, so you could have input into trades, etc.
   
5. Sim knowledge is helpful, but entirely optional - good ballplayers are good ballplayers.

The league is www.the-usbl.org, if you want to see how things are now.  Send me an email off my bio page, and I'll help get the "farm directors" in contact with the teams that need them.  If you don't want to tell me your alias on the site, please include some things about yourself that would make you a good farm director.

Someone posted of Moises Alou that: "He probably will give the Mets an OPS of .900."

Zips has him doing (in NY):

2007 ZiPS Projection - Moises Alou
----------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG  
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection   400  60  114  23  1  20  66  43  48   2  .285  .358  .498

BJHB has him doing (in SF): .284/.355/.481

He's averaged about a .920 OPS the past three seasons (2004-2006), which have been - needless to say - somewhat interrupted by injuries.  He turned 40 in July.  What do people here think he'll do?

Poll

What OPS will Moises Have?

• less than 150 AB, so it won't matter much
• 800 or lower
• 801-850
• 851-870
• 871-890
• 891-910
• 911+

  94 votes | Results

On this day when we give thanks, what are you most thankful for in the world of baseball player moves so far this offseason?

There has been a lot of talk about which of the high-priced moves is the most insane.  But, in between eating turkey, enjoying family, eating more turkey, watching football, eating turkey, playing football, and ... well ... pillaging the fridge to see what you have that doesn't contain turkey... what's made you happy this offseason?  If it's something just in the "rumors" stage, that's fine too.  Anything is welcome.  

Poll

For What Baseball Player Move(s) are you Most Thankful?

• Other (go crazy!)
• My team paid about 6B yen to talk to Matsuzaka
• My team did NOT pay about 6B yen to talk to Matsuzaka
• My team signed Soriano
• My team did NOT sign Soriano (for his crazy contract)
• My team retained a key player (e.g.Torii Hunter or Mike Mussina) for a sane price
• My team did NOT sign Juan Pierre
• My team did NOT sign Gary Matthews, Jr.
• My team hasn't overpaid on any free agents yet.
• My team traded a high-priced 38-y.o. outfielder for 3 live young arms.

  122 votes | Results