Community Projection: B.J. Upton

by John Sickels on Mar 8, 2008 1:28 PM EST in News Comment 4 comments

The community projection for B.J. Upton came out like this:

We had 36 entries. The projection:
147 games, 542 at-bats, 97 runs, 155 hits, 32 doubles, 5 triples, 25 homers, 93 RBI, 72 walks, 143 strikeouts, 30 steals, 10 caught, .286 average, .370 OBP, .502 SLG.

Many projections seemed unrealistically optimistic to me, but the final result looks OK, if still on the aggressive side. Comparisons:

CP: .286/.370/.502
Shandler: .275/.361/.439
James: .276/.362/.452
ZIPS: .278/.363/.452
Weighted Mean PECOTA: .270/.358/.455

The community is optimistic compared to these other projections, esp. in the SLG department. We will see.

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I think the BA/OBP numbers are a bit high . . .I would expect that if anything, he'll sacrifice a bit in those departments to get a bit more aggressive at the plate and boost his power numbers.

by mrkupe on Mar 8, 2008 3:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

crazy predictions

I couldn't believe how many people thought that he was going to have an All Star season.

One problem I see on this board (though not limited to this board) is the number of people who expect all top prospects to pan out to their maximum. People never seem to expect prospects to NOT pan out even though most do not.

Believe me, I'm a Yankee fan, and I would like nothing more than our top guys to all pan out to the max, but realistically, Hughes, Joba and IPK will NOT all do so. One or more of them, according to the odds, will turn into an average or below average major leaguer. That's just what happens to ALL prospects, including top guys.

by sabernar on Mar 8, 2008 9:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

but not to BOSSMAN

srsly

by daveh33 on Mar 9, 2008 1:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kinda sorta, but I disagree...

I agree with your comment on the high number of people "who expect all top prospects to pan out to their maximum", however, a couple things to consider in the case of Melvin Emmanuel.

A) This site is called, "minorleagueball.com". I can only assume most visitors to this site are baseball prospect junkies, and therefore, more optimistic than your average fan who may or may not know the names of Bruce, Longoria, Snider, etc.

B) More specifically to Upton, while a huge fan myself, I too was surprised at some of the optimistic projections. But seeing the aggregate, it doesn't look nearly as high as I thought it would be. Melvin did manage a 894OPS with 24HR and 22SB's in less than 500AB's during his 22 year old season. While I don't have specific numbers in front of me, I'd guess it's a lot less likely for a someone like Upton, who's already posted one fantastic season at a young age, to merely become "an average or below average major leaguer".

by ftheyankees on Mar 9, 2008 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs