Not a Rookie: Adam Jones

by John Sickels on Mar 6, 2008 1:36 PM EST in News Comment 35 comments

Adam Jones was drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the supplemental first round in 2003 out of high school in San Diego, 37th overall. For awhile in high school he was better regarded as a pitcher due to a 92 MPH fastball, but the Mariners decided to use him as a shortstop. He was considered highly athletic but very raw. He hit .284/.368/.349 in rookie ball, showing very little power. I gave him a Grade C+, rating him as raw but promising.

Jones moved up to Wisconsin in the Midwest League in 2004. He hit .267/.314/.404 with 11 homers, 33 walks, and 124 strikeouts. Defensively he showed a strong arm and the potential to be excellent at shortstop with more experience. Offensively he showed some power development, but his approach was very erratic. I wrote in the book: "Jones has bat speed, but his approach is very inconsistent, even from at-bat to at-bat.. . in one game I saw, he worked the count very effectively in one at-bat, then was completely helpless and overaggressive the rest of the game." I gave him another Grade C+.

Promoted to Class A Inland Empire in 2005, Jones hit .295/.374/.494 in 68 games. He moved up to Double-A San Antonio at mid-season, hitting .298/.365/.461 in 63 contests. He looked good with the glove but by the end of the year the Mariners had decided to make him an outfielder due to organizational needs. Offensively he hit 15 homers with 30 doubles, showing improved power development. His strike zone judgment improved as well. Seeing him play late in the year for San Antonio, I wrote "His balance at the plate looked much better, and he did a stronger job working counts" compared to what I saw the year before. I rated him at Grade B+ in the 2006 book.

Jones spent most of 2006 in Triple-A, hitting .287/.345/.484 in 96 games for Tacoma, with 16 homers. He hit .216/.237/.311 in 32 games for the Mariners. He developed into an excellent defender in the outfield. Offensively his power continued to come along, but his strike zone judgment still needed work. I gave him another Grade B+, high on the long-term but advising that he needed more Triple-A time and that he wouldn't put up big major league numbers in the short run.

2007 was another split season between Tacoma and Seattle. He hit .314/.382/.586 with 25 homers in 101 games for Tacoma, and .246/.300/.400 in 41 games for the Mariners, though he got just 65 at-bats in the majors. The power production has really improved, while strike zone judgment remains an issue. Given his age (22), his performance has been very credible, at least compared to the punchless rookie ball kid he was four years ago.

In the majors, Jones is a career .230/.267/.353 hitter in 73 games, 139 at-bats, too much playing time to qualify as a rookie though he's hardly established. He gets a chance now in Baltimore. What should we expect?

Short term, 2008 predictions

Shandler: .261/.311/.421
James: .270/.323/.459
ZIPS: .276/.335/.477
Weighted Mean PECOTA: .273/.333/.468
Me: .259/.321/.449.

I like Jones in the long run. The increase in power has been notable, his defense is a big plus, and he's shown a great work ethic and attitude in making these improvements. But he still has a strike zone control issue, and at this point I will be surprised if he does much in the batting average and OBP department right now. I suspect he will be rather erratic this year, improve slightly in '09, then break out in '10. One key will be getting consistent playing time, not getting jerked around by an impatient manager. They need to let him play and play a lot so he can work his problems out.

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Good writeup.

I think you graded correctly through his journey up the ladder, but I think you overrated his defense, especially when he was a shortstop. I've followed AJ real closely and I think the leaders in the Mariners' great blogosphere would agree that he just wasn't cutting it at shortstop, and although organizational need was part of the reason he was moved to the outfield, it became very apparent that he'd never be an adequate Major League shortstop.

As for his defense in center field now, the general consensus around Mariner land was that he's average now with the potential of being plus, or even plus-plus very soon.

by elrey34 on Mar 6, 2008 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Did the leaders in the blogosphere. . .

...watch him play then? From what I've read it doesn't seem to be the consensus of the scouts.

by Yoda on Mar 6, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

I saw him in the Cal League and he was a very servicable SS. He was a young kid then (19) but he had the range and actions of a SS and an absolute rocket for an arm (with none of throwing issues of Upton). Not saying the kid was Ozzie Smith, but I didn't see anything to lead me to believe he would have to be moved.

Personally, I would have kept him at SS. He has much better value there. A guy that hits .260/.320/.480 with 20-25 homers is about league AVE for CF. Those numbers are upper tier for SS. Especially since they traded him anyways, and yeah, I know they moved him because of Betancourt, but I personally don't move players positions until it becomes absolutely necessary. Especially to the OF, which any decent athlete can learn on the fly

by ScottAZ on Mar 7, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How many times have you seen him?

Jason A. Churchill has seen him multiple times, conversed with his scout buddies following him who had seen him even more times, and spoke with insiders from the organization dissatisfied with his development as a shortstop. Dave Cameron also spoke with his insiders and scouting buddies who said more or less the same thing.

by elrey34 on Mar 7, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And it only took me 2 hours to track it down

Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects
Posted by JasonAChurchill on March 7, 2006
http://insidethepark.wordpress.com/2006/03/07/seattle-mariners-top-20-prospects/

"2. Adam Jones, CF -Jones' stock didn't fall, nor rise, with the switch to center field from his natural shortstop. He was graded as an offensive player who would at least become an average defender at either position. Another big year and Jones will be ineligible. He has all-star potential, and should at least develop into a regular."

So my question - is this the same Jason A.Churchill? And if so, don't you think
good glove in minors=at least average SS in majors ?
Certainly doesn't sound like "he'd never be an adequate Major League shortstop"

by Yoda on Mar 8, 2008 8:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice digging.

That would be the same Jason A. Churchill. My memory of his opinion of AJ at shortstop was further from the truth that I thought. So maybe he could have been an average shortstop. But he was moved to the outfield to become a plus- to plus-plus center fielder (Churchill would agree that he underestimated Jones' center field defensive ability at the time of this piece).

by elrey34 on Mar 8, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes, I am very much looking forward

to seeing Mr. Jones performing everyday in center field.

by Yoda on Mar 8, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you

I see Jones having 2010 as his breakout year.
He should get plenty of ab's this year which will help with his development.
Living in No.Va, I look forward to seeing him play for many years to come!

Ted Williams: .406

by bodyiq on Mar 6, 2008 2:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Milledge + Jones

Could we possibly be seeing a D.C. area Centerfield Envy status soon?

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 6, 2008 2:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Damn The Mariners

The way Jones was jerked around in 2007 was just unconscionable. The Mariners really are incompetent.

by NBarnes on Mar 6, 2008 2:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jerked around?

How did they jerk him around? By calling him up when they thought he might be ready in July? From July 14-31st (16 games) he got 47 ABs. Thats about 3 per game? Is that jerking him around? They cut his playing time because he was only hitting 234/265/277 at that point, and the Mariners were in Wild Card and Division Championship contention at that point. They dropped him to 25 ABs in August where he only hit 160/160/360 for the month.

Maybe they should have sent him back down since they weren't going to use him as much. But why not keep him on the 40 man roster for September? What else was he going to do after the minor league season was over?

He was given the opportunity to succeed in Seattle and he didn't do it. Maybe he will become a greta pro player, no one knows. But in his first two tries in the majors, he was pretty poor at the plate. A team trying to win can't keep throwing out a starting OF who isn't hitting 240, isn't hitting for any power, and can't get on base.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Mar 6, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

47 abs

47 abs to prove ones self would seem to be a very small audition...Dustin Pedroia was hitting all of .180 with an OPS of .535 after 61 abs last year. If playoff positioning trumps giving a young top prospect a chance, then why call them up? Most guys struggle for the first few months (Nick Markakis also stunk up the joint for his first few months of his mlb career), it's unrealistic to expect a guy with Jones' skillset to crush mlb level pitching in his first 15 or so games. If you call a guy up, unless he plays scared, I would think that you need to give him more than 47 abs to prove himself.

I could see Adam Jones having a similar season to Chris Young last year - good power, lots of K's, good defense, and a gradually improving sense of the strikezone by the end of the year...I don't see him stealing as much as Young, but he seems like a guy who is going to hit for a low average in his first year or so at the mlb level, but will get better.

by southboundpachyderm on Mar 6, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

jones

i agree with the breakout 2010 year. john, what do you think his peak numbers will be and for how many years?

by richieabernathy on Mar 6, 2008 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Crystal Ball

Just wait for John to do a Crystal ball on him (if he hasn't already. I haven't checked). And then everyone can yell at him! I heard he likes that.

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 6, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you, John!

I have been waiting for this NAR for weeks! I've been checking the site like a kid on Xmas morning today, and this was a welcome arrival when I got back from lunch.

Interesting to see that much of his defense seems to be considered about average, because I have seen him play quite a bit over the last two years and his GUN was impressive each time he came out. I can live with plate discipline issues for a 22 y.o. - I just hope he gets the necessary guidance in Baltimore and the opportunity to play. Based on their recent refocus toward rebuilding, the playing time should come.

Your mother was a hamster and your father smelled of Ellsburys!

by mattyc44 on Mar 6, 2008 3:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Best Sig Ever

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Mar 6, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sooner rather than later

I disagree that it'll take Jones later to breakout. I think he hits over 22 HR's with over 20 SB's and a 350+ OBP. Together with his defense, I'd say that is a breakout. If he gets consistent playing time where he isn't forced to swing (hit a double or you don't play tomorrow, type of situation) he could be very good.

He's got great bat speed and really squares up the ball well on mistake pitches. As long as he doesn't feel pushed to chase pitches, he could be one of the top CF's in the AL.

My Pre-Season List of AL CF's (deff+off)

Grady Sizemore
Ichiro
Curtis Granderson - very good and getting better
Josh Hamilton - could be anywhere 1-8
Torii Hunter
Adam Jones - better d than Upton
BJ Upton
Vernon Wells - rebound?

That's some heady company.

by alskntwnsfn on Mar 6, 2008 9:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re

Jones better than Upton and Vernon Wells?????
WOW.......

by ScottAZ on Mar 7, 2008 9:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't even mention....

Nick Swisher

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 7, 2008 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not so crazy

There are always guys who underperform and guys who surprise...Upton surprised last year, and Jones could this year.

If Adam Jones hit the way guys like Markakis/Hart/etc did in their sophomore years, with plus defense, it's certainly possible he'd have more value than other guys who underperform.

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Mar 7, 2008 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

Upton's got much more usable speed, much better plate discipline, and arguably as much power, if not more. I don't see it at all.

by jc3 on Mar 7, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I'd say he's much more valuable.

Upside over Wells, and clearly a much better player than Upton. He'll prove that over the next few seasons.

by redwolf75 on Mar 7, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Umm

Adam Jones is clearly a better player than BJ? I hope your being sarcastic...

by hybrid on Mar 8, 2008 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Umm...

You are aware of Wells' 2007 season, aren't you? He of the .702 OPS? Even if you set that one aside, the other "poor" Wells seasons barely scrape an .800 OPS, if at all.

by elrey34 on Mar 9, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Cameron wasn't nearly the 22-year-old

Jones is. The Cameron comp is closer to the floor than a partially optimistic comp at this point, and Cameron's career is underrated by virtually everyone.

And you're forgetting that Wells struck out about as much as Jones did through the Minors. And you still haven't addressed Wells' other unspectacular seasons since his 2003 breakout year.

by elrey34 on Mar 10, 2008 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs