Not a Rookie: Lastings Milledge

by John Sickels on Feb 29, 2008 4:56 PM EST in News

Lastings Milledge was drafted in the first round by the Mets in 2003, out of high school in Palmetto, Florida. He went 6-for-26 (.231) in his pro debut in the Appy League, too small a sample size to mean anything. Scouts praised his athleticism, speed, and power potential, though concerns about his ability against breaking balls, and some off-field incidents during his high school days, dropped him to 12th overall. I gave him a Grade B- in the 2004 book, noting his high upside but writing that he was a definite wild card who could develop in any number of ways.

A broken finger limited Milledge to 87 games in 2004. He hit an excellent .337/.399/.579 with 23 steals in 65 games in the Sally League, but just .235/.319/.432 in 22 games in the Florida State League, hurt at the higher level by shaky plate discipline. I gave him a Grade B, noting that he had B+ pure talent but needed more polish to reach his ceiling.

Milledge hit .302/.385/.418 with 18 steals in 62 games for St. Lucie in '05, then .337/.392/.487 in 48 games after being promoted to Double-A Binghamton. This gave him a career record of .313/.382/.485 in 204 pro games heading into 2006. His strike zone judgment still needed work, but his bat was so quick that it wasn't hurting him much. I gave him a Grade A- in the 2006 book, but wrote that he needed another full year in the minors and that he would likely struggle if rushed.

As you know, he split '06 between Triple-A and the majors, and indeed he struggled at times for the Mets. '07 was an injury season, though he ended up putting up better performance for New York than in '06. Currently he stands at .257/.326/.414 in 350 career at-bats, with 11 homers and a 25/81 BB/K ratio.

For the future? My opinion about him really hasn't changed. He has immense potential. He still has weaknesses that his natural talent covers, at least against minor league competition. He is still very young, turning 23 in April. He has flashed the skills to go with those tools, and my personal opinion is that he has a better chance to flesh out those skills than a lot of tools guys. The main thing he needs is to stay healthy.

2008 predictions for Milledge

James: .286/.350/.463, 21 steals in 538 at-bats
Shandler: .287/.338/.455, 13 steals in 390 at-bats
ZIPS: .276/.360/.462, 7 steals in 392 at-bats
Weighted Mean PECOTA: .290/.359/.480, 15 steals in 380 PA
Me (Technical): .285/.338/.459
Me (Gut Feeling): .315/.363/.478

On pure stats my expectation is in line with what other people project. However, for some non-objective reason, I think Milledge could break out in a big way this year, with a big batting average spike. It's just an instinct, one of those impossible to explain gut feelings. Anyway, I put the Gut Feeling projection up there along with the technical projection.

In the long run, I think Milledge will have several seasons where he is one of the best players in the league, but will also have several seasons where he is somewhat disappointing, perhaps due to injuries. Another "gut" thing, I think these seasons will be mixed up rather than a nice glide path...one bad one, one good one, a bad one, a bad one, then two good ones, that sort of thing. In short, I think he will be an occasionally outstanding, but somewhat frustrating player, who 20 years from now will be able to look back on an overall very fine career.

PECOTA comps are interesting, ranging from Rondell White to Dwight Evans (not enough walks for that in my view) to Jesse Barfield to Ruben Mateo to Chet Lemon.

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Comments

The Mets will regret this

Ryan Church won't do any better than Shawn Green and Schnieder won't hit better than .225 with declinging defense. They will regret this as much as the Kazmir trade.

by Bravesin07 on Feb 29, 2008 5:05 PM EST 0 recs

Sounds like...

When the trade happened, as a Mets fan, I felt like it was the Kevin Mitchell trade all over again. Not trading away a hall of famer, but overreacting to character issues and trading away a very good young player for pennies on the dollar in the name of veteran certainty. John, your take on Milledge's future value even sounds a bit like Mitchell. Thoughts?

by aap212 on Feb 29, 2008 6:31 PM EST 0 recs

re

I like the comp.

I agree as well. I could see Milledge putting up some phenominal years. Easpecially this first one with a chip on his shoulder. I say .290/.335/.480 with 25 homers and 30 steals

by ScottAZ on Feb 29, 2008 7:45 PM EST up 0 recs

Oh no...

the Bret Saberhagen of hitters..one awesome year, followed by a down year. For Sabs it always seemed like had a phobia about even years. If every year was odd he may have been a top ten pitcher of all time

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/saberbr01.shtml

by dlpme77 on Feb 29, 2008 7:06 PM EST 0 recs

If

Milledge stays in the minors all of this year and last year is he would have a good chance to be the #1 prospect in baseball ahead of Bruce. How can you trade him? Would the Reds trade Burce for Ryan Church? Would the Cardinals trade Colby Rasmus for ChurchZ? I don't think so. IMO The Mets were being very short sighted.

by nyy601 on Feb 29, 2008 9:10 PM EST 0 recs

Proven Veterans

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Mar 1, 2008 12:19 AM EST up 0 recs

Proven

to be average at best

by nyy601 on Mar 1, 2008 12:26 AM EST up 0 recs

to be fair

some dudes did break out much later in their career, Paul O'Neil says hi.

Still though, I agree that this would probably blow up in the Met's face Scott Kazmir style. and what's worse, at least the Mets fan don't have to see Kazmir at least 18 times a year.

by RollingWave on Mar 2, 2008 4:31 AM EST up 0 recs

No way he puts up those numbers..

We have to remember he's still only 23 years old with obvious flaws in his game.. He can't hit any righty that throws a slider, and flails on curveballs.

He'll hit .260-.270 with 12-15 homeruns and 50-70 RBI

by Maine Man on Feb 29, 2008 9:44 PM EST 0 recs

I bet you wouldn't say that

if he still played for the Mets.

by nyy601 on Feb 29, 2008 10:09 PM EST up 0 recs

hah

When he played for the Mets, no one thought he'd do better than .280 15-20 homeruns. Suddenly, he's a lock for .315-25. Look, I hate the trade myself but to think the Mets made the trade with talent is mind is ridiculous. The trade was made because, for some reason (which I think was overblown by the media), the Mets didn't feel Milledge was going to work out clubhouse-wise and the rest of the league knew it (hence, the lack of trade value).

This wasn't a trade of "We don't think Milledge will reach his potential". This was a trade of "Milledge is unfortunately too much of a negative distraction".

I think he'll have an excellent career. He's an amazingly skillful, if raw, player. I don't think he's ever going to learn how to steal a base, despite his great speed. If you look at his minor league numbers, he's always had a great number of caught stealings behind his steals. I find, at this stage of a career, if a player doesn't have the instinct or knowledge of how to steal consistently, they just won't.

I do wish he'd shut his mouth as a Nat though. Living in D.C., I've been excited to see how he does at the knew stadium. But the bitter grapes are making me hope he crashes and burns. A little.

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 1, 2008 3:15 PM EST up 0 recs

Lets see

can you find were I said he was going to hit .315 with 25 homers? I would really like to see, because I can't seem to find it.

by nyy601 on Mar 1, 2008 3:49 PM EST up 0 recs

Geez....

Did I say YOU? It's called a general statement. Thanks for replying to any other points I made though.

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 1, 2008 3:55 PM EST up 0 recs

well you did

reply to my comment, that usually means it's addressed to me.

by nyy601 on Mar 1, 2008 4:14 PM EST up 0 recs

This is dumb

Look, you made a comment that Maineman was suddenly making a low ball statement on Milledge because he is a Mets fan. All I'm saying is that, look at this thread. You've got one person laying he's a lock at 25 HR, 30 SB. You've got John suggesting he's going to hit .315 with a relatively high slugging (kind of Torii Hunter in his prime numbers). That is what I'm saying. Taking it like all I can refer to is YOU is a little shortsighted. But fine, I'm dropping this conversation. I capitulate. All I was doing was accusing you of being unrealistic. I had absolutely no other point whatsoever.

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 1, 2008 4:20 PM EST up 0 recs

So because

somebody else said he's a lock for 25 homers and 30 SBs you hit the Reply to This button on my comment to make a big long statement about how is he being overrated? If you didn't catch it at first the comment I made to Maine Man was sarcasm. Never did I say he was going to hit .300 with 20 homers. I just said that if he was on the Mets, Maine Man may been a little more happy about the optimistic projections.

by nyy601 on Mar 1, 2008 4:31 PM EST up 0 recs

Don't post sarcasm.

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Mar 2, 2008 5:54 PM EST up 0 recs

.315? (+1)

you need to get that gut checked out...you think he is going to be one of the top 5-10 hitters in the NL this season after just plain being poor and really having never played a full season? I know you are saying you just have a feeling, but that is just ignorant.

the italicized comments down here are really gay

by IHateMitchMustain on Mar 3, 2008 12:34 PM EST up 0 recs

Actually

Those were the stats I projected before he got traded.

Sorry bud, nice try.

by Maine Man on Feb 29, 2008 11:06 PM EST 0 recs

So then

you're one of the few who thought the trade was good?

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Mar 1, 2008 12:20 AM EST up 0 recs

At First

At first I hated the trade.. Because though I don't believe Milledge will put up all-star numbers this year, I believe he has a bright future.

But as things have gone on I kind of like the trade..

by Maine Man on Mar 1, 2008 11:47 AM EST up 0 recs

Sock puppet

Hey, just stop attacking Maine Man, we all know Daveferno is the same as Joba the Great, Blindzorro and lots others.

by LCT on Mar 2, 2008 11:17 AM EST up 0 recs

Yeah, I do my research

You can have a very old account but you just start commenting many times every day after Joba and LaGoofey were banned from this site, PLUS a few days ago you ADMITTED that you have problems with slurve in the past and you know slurve was the one who was always fighting with you when you were Joba.

I just want to talk baseball here but you are the one who likes to attack everybody here ( just like Joba??? ).

by LCT on Mar 2, 2008 3:16 PM EST up 0 recs

comp

Andre Dawsonish?

by Cabbage on Mar 1, 2008 12:56 PM EST 0 recs

Shawn Green retired on Thursday

And for those who are old enough, John's take on Lastings sounds a lot like the career of Tommie Agee. He had some wonderful years (66, 69, 70) and some others (68 in particular) which were, to put it mildy, not.

by choo choo coleman on Mar 2, 2008 9:18 AM EST 0 recs

Green

Apparently, he wanted to play with a West Coast team or not at all. I assume he was looking for a starting job because he might actually be useful as a lefty bat off the bench. Can play 1st base and corner outfield and still hits righties well.

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 2, 2008 2:58 PM EST up 0 recs

McDowell/Burks

Playing around with BBRef's PI, I get Oddibe McDowell and Ellis Burks as comps for Milledge.

by Mike Green on Mar 3, 2008 9:34 AM EST 0 recs

Milledge

I don't think he'll have quite as much power as some do, he might never hit more than 20 HR. But I think he will hit for average. I say he'll be a career .285+ hitter, who will hit over .300 more than once.

I'm not sure yet whether he'll do that this year, but he might. I think it will take some time though for the plate discipline and walk rate to come around.

The main questions I have with Milledge aren't about his bat. I think his defense should be better than it's been, though he hasn't been bad in CF and may be helped by being back there. And I wonder what happened to the base running. He has the ability to steal 20 bases, but I'm not sure he has the aptitude at this point.

I don't think his ceiling with the bat will be much different from Church, what should make him the more valuable player eventually should be his defense and base running, if he puts the work in to get his skills there in line with his ability.

For this year, I'll go somewhere in between John's technical and gut projections; not too far off James or PECOTA, about .290, .350, .460, 20 SB, 10 CS.

by acerimusdux on Mar 3, 2008 5:59 PM EST 0 recs